Dried Apricots: Firm Turkish FOB, Slightly Softer EU Warehouse Prices

Turkish dried apricot prices are holding broadly steady on a firm but not tight Malatya crop, while EU FCA warehouse values have eased marginally at the low end as old‑crop stocks meet early new‑crop demand. Short‑term, the market looks balanced with a mild downward bias for small sizes in Europe, but exporters in Türkiye are signaling no room for substantial discounts. With harvest in full swing around Malatya and official visits highlighting the region’s strategic role in global apricot trade, market participants are closely watching how new‑crop volumes translate into export offers over the next few weeks. Recent private estimates point to a medium‑sized 2026 crop after last year’s severe frost losses, while current hot and dry weather is favorable for drying. Against this backdrop, buyers in Europe see slightly softer FCA levels for older stocks, whereas Turkish FOB prices remain anchored by growers’ cost levels and cautious exporter sentiment.

Prices

All prices below are approximate and converted into EUR/MT for comparison, assuming 1 EUR ≈ 1.10 USD and 1 EUR ≈ 38 TRY where needed.

• FOB Malatya/Ankara offers for standard sulphured and unsulphured grades are flat compared with early July, confirming a steady origin market despite harvest progress.
• In the EU, FCA warehouse prices for most sizes are slightly higher than two weeks ago, but Polish warehouse values for small size no:8 show a mild softening, reflecting discounting of remaining old‑crop lots.

Supply & Demand

Turkey remains the dominant supplier of dried apricots globally, with Malatya alone accounting for the majority of world dried production. Private industry estimates for the 2026 Malatya dried apricot crop point to around 75,000–80,000 MT, after last year’s strong frost‑driven losses, implying a medium crop but below the largest historical peaks.

Reports highlight that after severe 2025 frost damage, trees entered 2026 with reduced productivity, and localized hail and rainfall around flowering have trimmed yield potential and slightly weakened fruit quality, but without threatening overall supply. The Turkish agriculture minister’s recent participation in the Malatya harvest underlines that picking and early drying are now well underway, and authorities are presenting the region as a key export gateway.

Old‑crop stocks remain present in EU warehouses and are now overlapping with early new‑crop offers, creating a comfortable nearby supply situation. Trade commentary suggests that exporters expect a calm start to the season, with stable price ideas and no rush from buyers who still have cover from previous shipments. Any changes in Russian customs policies on stone fruit mainly affect fresh flows for now; dried apricots are less directly impacted in the very short term, but traders are monitoring potential spillovers in regional demand.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Malatya, TR)

The short‑term weather outlook for Malatya (21–23 July 2026) is hot and dry, with maximum daytime temperatures around 36–37°C and clear skies. These conditions are favorable for sun‑drying, supporting good drying speeds and limiting disease risk in harvested fruit.

Earlier in the season, authorities highlighted frost risk and localized hail events in parts of Malatya, but these were not widespread enough to substantially change the global balance. The combination of a medium crop and hot, stable July weather underpins steady FOB price ideas: origin sellers see no reason to discount sharply while drying conditions are ideal and pipeline demand remains steady.

Fundamentals & Macro Drivers

At the fundamental level, the 2026 dried apricot balance sheet looks adequate rather than burdensome. International industry data earlier in the year suggested world dried apricot production and stock levels normalizing after past weather shocks, and the latest Malatya estimates are broadly aligned with those indications.

On the macro side, Türkiye’s export competitiveness continues to be shaped by the lira and domestic inflation. Academic work on Turkish exports shows that lira appreciation and high inflation can dampen export volumes, which makes exporters sensitive to currency moves when setting USD and EUR offers. For now, exporters appear focused on preserving margins rather than chasing volume, contributing to the observed price stability at FOB.

Short-Term Trading Outlook

• European buyers (importers, packers): Nearby cover is comfortable; consider using any slight softening in Polish and Benelux FCA prices for small and mid sizes to extend coverage into late Q3 while origin remains steady.
• Turkish exporters: With a medium crop and favorable drying weather, maintain current FOB offer levels but stay flexible on logistics and payment terms to secure early‑season contracts, particularly in the EU and Middle East.
• Industry users (confectionery, bakery, cereal): Price risk for Q3 appears limited; focus on quality selection as some reports point to 5–10% lower fruit quality versus a normal year, which may widen premiums for top grades later in the season.

3‑Day Regional Price Bias

• Türkiye FOB Malatya/Ankara: Sideways bias over the next three days; no major fundamental or weather triggers to move prices away from current ~7,800–7,900 EUR/MT range for standard grades.
• EU FCA Benelux (Dordrecht): Slightly soft tone for smaller sizes as old‑crop lots are cleared, but overall range‑bound; modest discounts possible for prompt shipments.
• EU FCA Central Europe (Lodz): Mild downward bias on small calibers where offers already dipped week‑on‑week; further moves likely limited to incremental 0.5–1% adjustments barring new macro or policy news.