Dried Apricots Under Pressure: Price Slide, Quiet Demand, Waiting for TMO

Prices in the dried apricot market remain under downward pressure, with large gaps between varieties unsettling both exporters and growers. Weak exports and cautious buying suggest the market has not yet found a clear floor. The Turkish dried apricot sector is entering the post-harvest phase with pronounced price instability. High opening prices have given way to a steady decline, prompting importers to sit on the sidelines and delay purchases. Exports have slumped compared with last year, while domestic trading is distorted by extremely wide price ranges between sun-dried and jumbo grades. Farmers and exporters alike are now looking to a potential intervention by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) to restore confidence and narrow the spread between farmgate and export prices.

Prices

Local Turkish prices for dried apricots currently range from 80 TL to 500 TL per kilogram, with an average of 290.96 TL/kg, underscoring the exceptional dispersion across qualities and calibres. Jumbo natural dried apricots are quoted at 415 TL/kg, trading at a substantial premium to industrial and lower-grade material.

Despite this volatility in lira terms, export quotations in EUR appear broadly stable week-on-week. In Malatya, FOB prices for unsulphured Turkish dried apricots stand at EUR 8.30/kg for Size No. 1, EUR 8.20/kg for Size No. 2 and EUR 8.15/kg for Size No. 3, with Size No. 4 at EUR 8.10/kg and Size No. 5 at EUR 7.90/kg. Organic unsulphured grades cluster around EUR 9.00–9.20/kg FOB Ankara/Malatya.

Sulphured material shows a clearer size-related discount structure, with Malatya FOB prices at EUR 7.30/kg for Size No. 1, EUR 7.10/kg for Size No. 2, EUR 6.80/kg for Size No. 3, and EUR 6.40–6.60/kg for Sizes 4–5, easing to EUR 5.80/kg for Size No. 8. In Europe, FCA Dordrecht quotations for Turkish-origin material show a tight band, around EUR 6.10/kg for Size No. 8 and up to EUR 7.10–7.15/kg for Sizes 0–1, indicating limited week-on-week movement on the distribution side.

Supply & Demand

Fundamentally, the Turkish market is adjusting from a high-priced season opener to a more comfortable supply situation. Exports illustrate the impact of early lofty prices: August shipments fell from 8,000 tons last year to just 3,500 tons this year, signalling strong demand-side resistance and a shift of buying interest to later in the season.

Importers have decreased spot activity and are deliberately pacing purchases, anticipating additional price reductions as more volume reaches the market. Many exporters have temporarily suspended new buying in the interior, unwilling to carry inventory risk amid falling local prices and significant intra-market disparities between sun-dried and jumbo categories. Farmers, facing a wide spread between farmgate offers and the premiums seen on top grades, are increasingly vocal in calling for TMO to set a reference price.

On the demand side, the international pipeline is not empty: shipment data for HS 081310 confirm ongoing Turkish exports to Europe, Asia and the Americas, with 2025 dried apricot exports already having reached substantial values in major EU destinations. However, current trade reports describe the spot market as quiet, with only a slight pickup in demand and expectations that sales and exports will strengthen into October.

Fundamentals & Weather

Structurally, Turkey remains the dominant global supplier of dried apricots, with Malatya province at the core of production. Sector-level data for the first half of 2026 already show a broader dried-fruit export recovery, supported by improved crops of raisins, dried apricots and figs, which is easing supply constraints compared with previous frost-affected years.

Recent crop reports point to a strong 2026 Turkish dried apricot harvest, with good drying conditions and ample availability, especially in larger sizes (1–4). This abundance aligns with the observed downward drift in prices and explains why buyers feel comfortable delaying coverage. At the same time, the very wide spread between lower grades (industrial material near 80 TL/kg) and top jumbo categories near 415–500 TL/kg is fragmenting the market and complicating exporters’ procurement strategies.

Weather-wise, autumn conditions are now setting in across Malatya, with forecasts calling for relatively cool, occasionally rainy days around 20–25°C and cooler nights. For the dried product already in warehouses, this has limited direct impact, but it may slow final on-farm handling and logistics and further discourage aggressive spot buying until price expectations stabilise.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

In the short term, the combination of comfortable supply, subdued export flows and cautious importer behaviour argues for continued soft undertones in local Turkish prices, especially for standard and industrial qualities. Any formal intervention by TMO—through setting a minimum purchase price—would be a potential turning point, likely firming farmer sentiment and limiting further downside for better grades.

With international EUR-denominated export offers currently stable and lira-based farmgate prices under pressure, the main risk for exporters is margin compression rather than a sharp rebound in global price benchmarks. Market participants generally expect a gradual pickup in exports from October onwards as buyers return to cover Q4–Q1 needs. Until clearer policy signals emerge, volatility is likely to remain elevated in the domestic segment, especially between sun-dried and jumbo categories.

Trading outlook

• Importers / industrial users: Consider scaling in coverage for standard sulphured and unsulphured grades at current EUR FOB levels, but maintain flexibility for further price softness in lira terms as exports remain below potential.
• Packers / brand owners: Use the current wide spread between industrial and jumbo qualities to optimise blends and margins, but avoid overcommitting to top grades until TMO policy and farmer selling patterns become clearer.
• Exporters: Limit new raw-material purchases where local prices have not adjusted to export parity, and prioritise existing stocks and forward contracts; prepare for potential tightening if TMO announces a supportive floor price.
• Farmers: Where cash flow allows, stagger sales and monitor discussions around TMO intervention, as coordinated support could improve returns for higher-quality fruit later in the season.

3-day directional price indication

• Malatya FOB, TR (standard sulphured & unsulphured): Sideways to slightly softer bias as exporters and importers remain cautious and local stocks are ample.
• Ankara FOB, TR (organic unsulphured): Stable; niche demand and limited certified supply support a modest premium over conventional material.
• FCA Dordrecht, NL (Turkish-origin, mixed sizes): Largely steady; recent small decreases suggest distributors are aligning with weaker Turkish lira prices but no sharp moves are expected near term.