Dried Mango Prices Edge Higher as Thai Exports Surge, Vietnam Faces Heat Risk

Dried mango prices from Vietnam and Thailand are ticking higher, supported by strong export demand and weather-related risks in parts of Southeast Asia. FOB Hanoi values have firmed slightly, while Thai-origin product ex-warehouse in Europe is also nudging up. Export programs from Thailand remain very active, and extreme heat episodes in Vietnam keep a mild risk premium in the market despite generally adequate fruit availability. Spot market sentiment is cautiously bullish. Thailand is currently pushing mango exports aggressively, helped by strong demand from Asia and high-profile promotional campaigns for Thai fruits at home and abroad, while Taiwan and other origins increasingly compete for EU shelf space. In Vietnam, hot and dry conditions linked to El Niño in central areas contrast with wetter, more orchard-friendly weather further south, leaving the dried segment alert to any supply tightening if heat stress extends. Overall, buyers see limited downside into early July.

Prices

Latest assessed prices on 26 June 2026 show a modest firming across key dried mango lines:

The upward move remains incremental, but the combination of stronger fresh-mango export channels from Thailand and heat-related risks in Vietnam supports a slightly firmer tone rather than any meaningful correction.

Supply & Demand

Thailand (origin TH): Thailand is consolidating its position as a leading global mango exporter, with recent reports highlighting a surge in shipments, particularly to North Asian markets such as South Korea. Domestic campaigns like large-scale fruit festivals and retail promotions are boosting internal demand for premium Thai fruits, including mango, tightening top-grade availability for processing and drying.

Vietnam (origin VN): Vietnam remains a smaller but important regional mango producer, with overall tropical fruit output expanding. Early June has brought severe heatwaves and water-stress concerns in central regions, prompting official El Niño responses to protect irrigation. While main mango-orchard belts in the south currently benefit from typical rainy-season conditions, the market remains watchful for any extension of heat and drought into key fruit-growing zones.

Global competition: Taiwan is rapidly scaling up mango exports to the EU and South Korea, underlining intensifying competition in premium fresh markets, which can influence raw-material pricing for drying in Thailand and Vietnam when buyers chase quality fruit. At the same time, India faces fresh-mango export disruptions to Japan due to phytosanitary issues, slightly rebalancing high-value Asian demand toward Thai and other origins.

Weather Outlook (TH, VN)

Thailand: The Thai Meteorological Department’s 7‑day outlook to 30 June 2026 calls for a prevailing southwest monsoon with scattered to widespread showers and isolated heavy rain over much of the country, especially northern and northeastern regions. For mango orchards, this pattern supports soil moisture but may intermittently disrupt harvest and drying logistics if heavy downpours coincide with field operations.

Vietnam: Vietnam is experiencing a contrast between very hot, dry conditions in parts of the central region and more typical rainy-season weather in the south. Authorities are ramping up El Niño response measures to safeguard water supplies as temperatures exceed 40°C in some central provinces. Southern fruit areas, including major orchard zones, continue to see regular but mostly short-lived showers that sustain fruit growth and keep transport broadly functional, though localized flooding or muddy field access can still slow movements.

Market Fundamentals

Raw fruit availability: Thailand’s mango production remains robust, supported by off-season programs in northern provinces and ongoing government-backed marketing initiatives to move surplus fruit across the country. Vietnam’s mango sector is smaller but growing; heat and water-stress headlines raise concerns primarily for future flowering and fruit set rather than immediate availability of raw material for drying.

Demand for dried mango: Global appetite for tropical fruits, including processed mango, continues to expand, with recent analyses highlighting growing demand from both traditional markets and newer destinations. Strong fresh export channels from Thailand and rising competition in the EU from Taiwan encourage processors to secure raw fruit early, supporting dried prices even as farmgate fresh prices in Thailand have eased modestly compared with earlier in the year.

Trading Outlook & 3-Day Price View

Trading recommendations (next 2–3 weeks)

• Importers / buyers: Consider covering a portion of Q3 needs now, especially for Vietnamese FOB material, as weather risks in central Vietnam and firm Thai export demand argue for limited downside.
• Packers / processors in TH & VN: Use current price strength to lock in forward sales but avoid overcommitting volumes in case extreme weather tightens raw-material supply later in the season.
• Distributors in EU: Thai dried mango ex-Dordrecht remains competitively priced versus expected freight-inclusive offers from Asia; moderate price increases to end-clients appear justifiable if demand holds.

3-day regional price indication (27–29 June 2026)

• Vietnam, FOB Hanoi (dried mango, slices & chunks): Around 5.75–5.80 EUR/kg, bias slightly upward on strong regional demand and heat-related supply risk.
• Vietnam, FOB Hanoi (dried mango, chunks 13–19% moisture): Around 5.50–5.60 EUR/kg, stable-to-firm with buyers accepting small premiums for reliable quality.
• Thai origin, FCA Dordrecht (normal sugar 8–10 mm): Around 4.50–4.60 EUR/kg, with a mild upward tendency as Thai export programs remain strong and EU summer demand for snack fruit improves.