Dried mango prices are broadly steady in both Vietnam and Thailand, with Vietnam FOB offers unchanged and Thai-origin product in Europe slightly softer but still tight on raw material. Near-term, limited Thai processing fruit and robust export demand keep a mildly bullish tone, while Vietnam’s main harvest provides a floor for offers rather than a reason for discounts.
Overall, the market is balanced but nervous. In Thailand, the successful 2025/26 fruit season is ending, and mango production is reported complete in key northern areas, tightening raw material availability just as exporters continue to benefit from strong regional demand, particularly from China. Vietnam, by contrast, is entering the main mango harvest window, supporting stable dried mango output and export programs rather than aggressive price cutting. For buyers, the immediate opportunity is to secure Q2–Q3 coverage before any weather‑related risk in Thailand or regional competition for fruit flows through to dried prices.
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📈 Prices & Recent Moves
| Product | Origin | Location / Term | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | 1-week Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dried mango chunks 2–3 cm, 13–19% moisture | Vietnam | Hanoi, FOB | 5.63 | Stable vs 12 April |
| Dried mango slices & chunks, 2–15 mm | Vietnam | Hanoi, FOB | 5.83 | Stable vs 12 April |
| Dried mango, normal sugar 8–10 mm | Thailand | Dordrecht, FCA | 4.50 | ≈‑0.03 vs 12 April |
Vietnamese FOB dried mango is flat through mid‑April, consistent with external export offers that show a stable to slightly firm tone into the new harvest window. Thai-origin dried mango, priced FCA in Europe, has eased marginally week-on-week, reflecting the recent completion of mango production in parts of northern Thailand and some normalization after earlier tightness, rather than a structural downtrend.
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
Vietnam (VN)
- Harvest timing: External trade sources confirm that Vietnam’s main mango harvest runs roughly from April to May, with additional smaller peaks later in the year; this supports current dried mango output and underpins exporters’ ability to maintain stable FOB levels.
- Export orientation: Vietnam’s dried mango sector is heavily export‑focused, supplying China, the US and Europe, with a high share of lower‑grade fresh mango diverted into processing (dried, jams, juice). This sustains processing throughput even when fresh‑export specifications are tight.
- Competition from neighbors: A recent assessment of Cambodia–Thailand trade highlights Cambodia’s increased reliance on mango exports (fresh and dried) into Thailand and Vietnam. While this adds some regional supply, it has not yet translated into visible pressure on Vietnam FOB dried prices.
Thailand (TH)
- Season ending in the North: Thai agri‑news reports that mango production in northern Thailand is already complete as the broader fruit season winds down, limiting fresh raw material available to dryers.
- Strong export background: Thailand’s fruit exports reached around USD 6.5 billion in 2024, with mango among the key items, reflecting strong structural demand from regional buyers, especially China.
- Cross‑border disruption risk: Earlier reporting on Cambodian ‘Kaew Khamin’ mango showed how swings in cross‑border flows can quickly move Thai processor input costs and availability, although current commentary focuses more on pickled and preserved segments than on premium dried slices.
🌦 Weather & Crop Outlook (TH, VN)
- Thailand: Recent regional weather commentary points to very hot, mostly dry April conditions across much of Thailand, with only short, localized showers. For mango, much of the 2025/26 crop is already set or harvested, but persistent heat and dryness increase stress on late orchards and could constrain fruit sizing and quality for any remaining processing lots.
- Vietnam: For northern Vietnam, travel and local guidance describe April as generally dry to moderately warm, with more significant rains typically arriving closer to May; conditions are seen as broadly favorable for fieldwork and harvest logistics at this stage. No acute weather shock has been reported in the last few days that would materially alter the April–May mango harvest outlook.
Net effect: weather is currently a watch‑factor rather than an active bullish driver—but the combination of Thai heat stress and already-completed northern harvest means little downside to dried prices from the supply side over the next week.
📊 Market Fundamentals & Trade Flows
- Structural demand growth: Background trade data underline robust demand for Southeast Asian mango products, with Thailand consolidating its role as a leading fresh and processed fruit exporter, and Vietnam expanding dried mango exports to multiple continents.
- Dried mango trade benchmarks: Recent global dried mango transaction datasets for early 2026 show stable to slightly firm prices across key exporting origins, aligning with the steady VN and TH indications seen this week.
- Regional competition for fruit: Cambodia’s documented near‑20% increase in dried mango‑related production and strong reliance on Thailand and Vietnam as export channels suggest that any future oversupply could be absorbed via cross‑border processing, limiting sharp price drops but increasing correlation between the three origins.
📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas
- Price bias (next 2–4 weeks): Mildly bullish to sideways. Thai raw‑fruit tightness and hot weather argue against further downside, while Vietnam’s harvest keeps the market supplied but not loose.
- For buyers:
- Use current Vietnam FOB stability to extend cover into late Q2, especially for standard slices and chunks (non‑organic).
- For Thai-origin product delivered into Europe, consider scaling in on minor dips; replacement risk could rise if regional heat persists or if fresh export channels pull fruit away from processors.
- For sellers/processors:
- Maintain offer discipline; no need for discounts while Thai supply is tight and Vietnam’s new crop is being absorbed steadily by export demand.
- Lock in key input and logistics costs where possible to protect margins against potential Q3 weather volatility.
📉 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)
- Thailand (TH, dried mango ex-TH, reference FCA EU): 4.50 EUR/kg, bias: steady to slightly firmer over the next 3 days on tight raw material and firm export backdrop.
- Vietnam (VN, FOB Hanoi dried mango): 5.63–5.83 EUR/kg range, bias: steady as main harvest supports supply but exporters prioritize margin over volume.
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