Erratic Monsoons and Emerging Drought Risks Keep India’s Kharif Pulses Market on Edge

Erratic monsoon rainfall and localised drought conditions in key producing regions are shifting India’s 2026 kharif season from an acreage story to a yield and water-availability story, with potentially significant implications for pulses supply, trade flows and prices. While total pulses area has edged above last year’s level, prolonged early-season moisture stress and an ongoing all‑India rainfall deficit mean exportable surpluses will likely remain limited, keeping India a key buyer in global markets.

Global commodity markets are already sensitive to weather shocks, as heatwaves and drought contribute to higher food commodity prices and volatility. Against this backdrop, India’s pulse balance will be closely watched by exporters in Africa, Myanmar and Canada, as well as by domestic processors and food manufacturers managing cost risk.

Introduction

India’s southwest monsoon began 2026 with a pronounced deficit, delaying kharif sowing across pulses, coarse cereals and oilseeds. By late August, cumulative rainfall was still about 13% below the long‑period average (LPA), with August rainfall alone roughly 15% below LPA, reflecting lingering dryness in several belts despite some recovery in July.

Official data show that total pulses acreage has actually increased year on year, with area under tur (pigeon pea), urad (black gram) and moth bean rising, even as moong (green gram) lags. The narrowing acreage gap masks significant regional divergence: some states face deficits and moisture stress associated with drought‑like conditions, while others have benefited from better‑timed rains.

Immediate Market Impact

The primary concern for markets is that delayed planting and early‑season rainfall deficits will cap yield potential, especially in traditionally high‑yielding states that endured prolonged moisture stress. Analysts note that while improved July rains helped farmers catch up on sowing, the weaker precipitation in August has increased the risk that final output of pulses may be only marginally better than last year, despite slightly higher area.

With global food commodity prices already at a three‑year high on the FAO index, partly due to weather‑related output concerns, any disappointment in India’s kharif pulses harvest could reinforce firmness in international prices for lentils and other pulses. Domestic spot markets are likely to retain a risk premium, particularly for tur and moong, as traders price in the possibility of lower yields and continued import dependence.

Supply Chain Disruptions

Drought conditions and rainfall deficits primarily affect India’s supply chain through reduced yields, stressed reservoirs and tighter availability of irrigation water, rather than direct damage to transport infrastructure. However, pockets of production shortfall can trigger logistical shifts, such as longer‑haul movements from surplus to deficit states and increased reliance on coastal ports for imports.

Weaker crops in central and southern regions raise the likelihood of heavier procurement from northern and eastern states where rainfall has been more favourable, adding transport costs for millers and wholesalers. If domestic supply tightens, pulses imports through ports on the west and east coasts will become more prominent, potentially contributing to intermittent congestion during peak arrival windows and squeezing storage capacity near processing hubs.

Commodities Potentially Affected

• Tur (pigeon pea): Slightly higher national acreage is offset by rainfall deficits and reduced sowing in some key states, leaving yield and output at risk and maintaining firm domestic prices and import requirements.
• Urad (black gram): Strong acreage gains in parts of northern and central India could be curtailed by earlier moisture stress and uneven rainfall, making final production highly sensitive to late‑season moisture availability.
• Moong (green gram): Lower sown area across several major states, combined with erratic rains, points to tighter new‑season availability and sustained price support unless counterbalanced by rabi pulses.
• Chickpeas and other pulses: While primarily rabi crops, expectations for kharif shortfalls tend to spill over into rabi planting decisions and pre‑harvest price formation, affecting trade flows and import tenders.
• Cereals and oilseeds: Rainfall deficits have also left kharif rice, coarse grains and oilseeds behind last year’s acreage at points in the season, reinforcing a broader weather‑driven risk premium in food commodity markets.

Regional Trade Implications

If drought‑linked yield losses in parts of India translate into tighter domestic balances, import demand for pigeon pea, urad and other pulses from East Africa, Myanmar and Canada is likely to remain robust into 2026/27. Exporters in these origins could benefit from stronger basis levels and more frequent government and private‑sector tenders out of India.

Conversely, price‑sensitive buyers in South Asia and the Middle East that rely on India for processed pulses may face higher offer prices or reduced availability, especially for specific grades and varieties. More broadly, global drought signals—from Europe’s stressed summer crops to El Niño‑linked dryness in parts of Southeast Asia—encourage diversification of sourcing, with importers spreading risk across multiple origins and shipment windows.

Market Outlook

In the near term, pulses markets are expected to remain volatility‑prone as traders recalibrate production estimates based on field reports and arrivals. With acreage data now largely fixed, attention has shifted decisively to realised yields in states that experienced early‑season rainfall deficits and localised drought, and to how much area underperforms initial expectations.

Domestic and international participants will monitor procurement by Indian agencies, import policy signals, and spreads between kharif and rabi pulses. A scenario in which yields disappoint in drought‑affected belts could keep tur and moong prices elevated, sustain India’s import pull and support international pulses benchmarks into the first half of 2027.

CMB Market Insight

For commodity traders and food industry buyers, India’s 2026 kharif pulses season underscores how rainfall deficits and localised drought can erode the comfort implied by stable or rising acreage. Supply risk is now concentrated in yield performance and water availability, with relatively small deviations from trend posing outsized price impacts in thinly traded segments such as tur and specific urad grades.

Strategically, market participants may consider locking in physical coverage on price breaks, diversifying origin exposure, and closely tracking India’s import programme and policy stance. In a global environment already characterised by weather‑driven volatility and elevated food prices, the interaction between India’s monsoon‑affected pulses crop and international supply will remain a key driver of pulses trade flows and price formation over the coming months.