Cashew Market 2026: Record Crop but West African Constraints Keep Prices Firm
Global cashew supply hits a record in 2025–26, yet West African weather and policy bottlenecks are keeping kernel prices firm. Outlook and trading ideas.
Prices & Current Market Tone
Recent offer data indicate a broadly stable but slightly firmer tone in kernel prices. Vietnamese FOB offers for standard WW320 kernels are hovering around EUR 6.3–6.5/kg, with WW240 near EUR 7.1–7.3/kg, while broken and splits (SP, WS) are trading in the EUR 3.9–5.0/kg range depending on grade and origin. Indian FOB prices for conventional W320 are close to EUR 6.4–6.6/kg, with W240 around EUR 6.9–7.2/kg and lower grades such as SWP and LWP mostly in the EUR 4.5–5.3/kg bracket.
In Europe, FCA Dordrecht quotations for imported WW320 kernels from transit stocks are around EUR 4.6–4.9/kg for conventional and roughly EUR 5.7–6.0/kg for organic lots, underscoring a clear location and logistics premium for nearby material. Across the board, prices over the last three weeks have moved only marginally, confirming that the earlier Q1 correction has largely run its course and that the market has shifted into a stable-to-firm consolidation phase as buyers reassess second-quarter demand.
Supply & Demand Dynamics
Global raw cashew nut output in 2025–26 has set a new record near 640,000 tonnes, driven by broad-based gains in both hemispheres. Southern-hemisphere production is running roughly 13% above last season, with Tanzania alone delivering more than 18% growth and supplying a substantial portion of the raw nuts now feeding processing capacity in Vietnam and India. Brazil’s crop performance is more mixed but still comfortably above last year on aggregate, adding to the overall surplus in raw material.
Despite these ample volumes, effective exportable supply is tightening in several critical origins. East African raw nuts reached Vietnam and India early in 2026, satisfying initial processor demand, but stocks in Tanzania are now largely exhausted. Indian importers have consequently pivoted toward Nigeria and Ghana, while Burkina Faso’s government policy prioritising domestic processors before exports has slowed outward shipments. In Ghana, heavy rainfall is interrupting collection and drying, with most deliverable output currently concentrated in the Sampa area, increasing both quality risk and dependence on a single district.
On the demand side, Vietnam’s kernel exports rose by about 3% in the latest season, helped by solid orders from China, West Asia and Europe. India’s domestic market has been supported by festive and wedding-related consumption, although very recent data suggest some cooling in local kernel demand as broader consumer costs rise. In the US and key EU markets, buying in early 2026 has been somewhat cautious, with importers waiting for clearer signals on the new crop and freight costs, yet overall 2025 demand from China, West Asia and Europe remained solid, preventing any sharp deterioration in global offtake.
Regional Fundamentals & EU Focus
Within the European Union, cashew imports have edged up by around 2.2% to just under 35,000 tonnes, confirming a gradual expansion in kernel usage in snacks and confectionery. Vietnam has strengthened its position as the principal supplier into the bloc, while India’s share has softened, partially replaced by higher volumes from Côte d’Ivoire and other West African origins. The Netherlands continues to function as a crucial entry point and redistribution hub, reflected in the active FCA trade in Dordrecht for both organic and conventional grades.
However, for EU manufacturers, headline import growth masks emerging vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Increased reliance on West African raw nut origins coincides with Ghana’s weather-related collection problems and Burkina Faso’s more restrictive export framework, under which processors must first service local factories before shipping raw nuts abroad. Farm-gate prices in Burkina Faso, currently around EUR 0.87–1.00/kg equivalent, point to firm producer margins and limited immediate pressure to accelerate sales, reinforcing the risk of localised tightness in raw nut availability for exporters and processors.
For kernel buyers, this means that the record global harvest overstates what is physically and promptly accessible. While EU import volumes are still growing, the system is more exposed to any additional disruption in West Africa, particularly if rainfall issues persist in Ghana or if policy measures in neighbouring states further prioritise domestic processing over raw exports.
Weather & Policy Watch (West Africa)
Weather is a key swing factor in the short term. Ghana has recently experienced heavy and persistent rainfall in key cashew regions, which is hampering on-farm collection and delaying drying and grading. This not only slows the movement of raw nuts to ports but can also affect quality, raising shelling and processing costs for buyers in India and Vietnam who depend on stable, predictable flows.
Policy developments are equally important. Burkina Faso’s requirement that exporters first supply domestic processing plants before shipping raw nuts is lengthening export lead times even as buying activity along the farm-gate has increased. Combined with Ghana’s weather issues and the near exhaustion of Tanzanian stocks, these constraints create a scenario where any additional local disruption—whether from logistics bottlenecks, security incidents or further regulatory changes—could quickly translate into higher kernel prices, particularly for top grades such as WW240 and WW320.
Short-Term Outlook & Trading Strategy
Over the next 2–4 weeks, kernel prices are likely to remain firm with an upward bias for premium grades. Record raw nut availability and strong southern-hemisphere crops cap the potential for a sharp rally, but the combination of West African weather disruptions, policy-related export friction and still-respectable demand from Asia and Europe suggests limited downside for nearby shipments. The market balance appears delicately poised, with effective supply tightening faster than headline production figures imply.
Any further deterioration in West African logistics or weather conditions could have an outsized impact, given India’s current pivot toward Nigeria and Ghana for raw nut sourcing. For now, processors in Vietnam and India have covered their immediate needs thanks to early arrivals from East Africa, but replacement raw material later in the season may be more costly or slower to secure. This underpins the recommendation that industrial buyers avoid over-waiting in the hope of a renewed price dip.
Trading Recommendations
- EU snack & confectionery buyers: Consider layering in purchases of WW320 and WW240 for June–July delivery at current EUR levels, with a focus on Vietnam and India origin, to hedge against potential West African disruptions.
- Importers in Europe and the Middle East: Maintain diversified origin exposure (Vietnam, India, Côte d’Ivoire, Nigeria) and avoid excessive reliance on Ghana and Burkina Faso for nearby cover until weather and policy risks ease.
- Processors in Vietnam & India: Use current raw nut availability from Nigeria and Ghana to secure at least 4–6 weeks of kernel production, but be prepared to pay a premium for additional volumes if West African flows tighten further.
- Speculative participants: The risk-reward profile favours a mildly bullish stance on high grades (WW240/WW320) over the next month, with tight stop-losses in case demand in Europe and the US softens more sharply than expected.