Weak Rupee, Tight California Supply Keep Almond Prices Firm Into Summer

India’s almond market is holding firm at elevated levels as a sharp import slowdown and a record-weak rupee outweigh seasonally soft summer demand. With California’s 2026 crop forecast slightly below last year and India’s structural consumption growth intact, prices are more likely to rise than fall into the key festive season unless the rupee stages a strong recovery. India’s wholesale prices for California almonds in Delhi remain steady despite heat-driven demand softness, underpinned by a 19% month‑on‑month drop in April import volumes and more than a 50% collapse in kernel arrivals. A rupee trading below 95.5–95.8 per US dollar has sharply raised landed costs and discouraged fresh buying, even as California’s 2026 crop is estimated at about 2.7 billion pounds, 1% below last year. Health-focused urban consumers and a growing middle class continue to provide a solid demand floor, suggesting that any pick‑up in buying later in the year will meet a relatively tight pipeline.

Prices & Current Levels

At Delhi’s key dry fruit wholesale hub, California‑origin almonds are quoted around USD 249.5–253.7 per 40 kg box, while kernels trade near USD 8.85–8.91 per kg. Converted into euros at roughly 1.08 USD/EUR, this implies shell‑on values near EUR 6.30–6.40 per kg and kernel values around EUR 8.20–8.25 per kg, illustrating how currency weakness has lifted local price floors despite subdued spot demand.

Export offers from the US and Spain in early May show broadly stable to slightly softer dollar‑denominated values, with standard US Carmel kernels around EUR 6.55–6.60/kg FAS and Spanish Valencia types near EUR 5.45–5.80/kg FOB. This contrast underscores that India’s firmness is driven less by origin prices and more by rupee depreciation and constrained local supply, rather than a global rally.

Supply & Demand Drivers

India’s April almond imports fell to 995 containers, a drop of 235 containers (‑19.1%) versus March, while almond kernel imports plunged from 11 to just 5 containers. This sharp reduction means the forward supply pipeline is thinning just as the market heads into a seasonally quieter summer, leaving fewer stocks available when demand normalizes.

On the demand side, extreme heat is temporarily curbing immediate consumption, but structural growth from health‑conscious urban consumers and an expanding middle class continues to underpin medium‑term offtake. Traders expect a pronounced recovery as India’s festive buying window approaches later in the year, with both retail and institutional channels likely to step up purchases into a tighter inventory backdrop.

Fundamentals: Currency & California Crop

The dominant near‑term driver is currency. The Indian rupee has slipped below 95 per US dollar, briefly touching about 95.75–95.8 in mid‑May, a historic low that sharply raises the landed cost of dollar‑priced nuts and suppresses new import bookings. Market contacts note that unofficial rates are weaker still, further eroding importer margins and amplifying price pass‑through along the value chain.

At origin, California’s 2026 almond crop is estimated at roughly 2.7 billion pounds, around 1% below last year, with yields near 1,940 pounds per acre and bearing area edging lower. While not a dramatic shortfall, this confirms a plateauing supply profile following several large crops. Combined with strong existing commitments, this constrains freely available export supply to India and other price‑sensitive destinations, reinforcing today’s firm tone.

Weather Outlook (Key Growing Regions)

In California’s Central Valley, the coming days are expected to remain warm, dry, and breezy, consistent with recent forecasts for elevated fire‑weather risk rather than persistent rain. For almonds, this pattern is broadly neutral to mildly supportive at the current stage of crop development, with limited immediate threat to the 2026 yield outlook.

For India, the more relevant weather factor is ongoing high summer temperatures, which are suppressing immediate snack nut consumption and delaying some retail restocking. However, this seasonal effect is temporary and is unlikely to offset the structural tightening from weak‑currency‑driven import restraint once cooler months and festival demand arrive.

Market Outlook & Risks

Baseline expectations point to firm‑to‑firmer almond prices through the summer, with an upside bias into the Indian festive season. The 19% April import decline and more than halving of kernel arrivals indicate that any demand rebound later in the year will encounter lighter inventories than in previous seasons, particularly in key hubs such as Delhi.

The main downside risk is a sharp, sustained rupee recovery that restores importer confidence and triggers renewed buying from California and European origins. A relaxation of geopolitical tensions and lower crude prices could strengthen the rupee and ease landed costs, reopening the door to larger procurement programs and potentially capping further price gains.

Trading Strategies & Recommendations

• Indian importers/roasters: Consider staggered coverage for Q4 needs rather than waiting for deep price corrections; rupee risk remains skewed to further weakness in the near term, while pipeline stocks are already thin.
• European exporters to India: Be prepared for choppy but potentially rapid demand rebounds if the rupee strengthens; maintain optionality on logistics and offers, as procurement volumes could jump once FX stabilizes.
• Industrial buyers globally: With origin prices relatively stable in euros and dollars, use current levels to secure part of 2026–27 needs, particularly for premium grades (e.g., nonpareil, organic) where supply can tighten quickly.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional, EUR)

• India (Delhi wholesale, California origin, kernels): Stable to slightly firmer in EUR terms; upside risk if rupee weakens further.
• US export offers (Carmel/Nonpareil, FAS/FOB): Broadly stable in EUR, with a mild softening bias amid normal farm‑gate selling and steady crop outlook.
• EU (Spain FOB, standard kernels): Slightly softer to stable in EUR as local supply is comfortable, but any renewed Indian buying could tighten exportable surplus later in the season.