Almond Prices Hold Firm as Bullish Supply Signals Build in US and Spain

Prices for key almond kernel grades in the US and Spain are broadly steady in mid‑May, with only marginal week‑on‑week moves, but the underlying supply picture has turned structurally tighter and keeps a mild upward bias for the coming weeks. Physical spot markets remain well-supplied and liquid, yet the first meaningful cuts in California acreage, a slightly smaller 2026 US crop forecast and improving but still fragile Spanish production prospects are encouraging sellers to defend current offers. Buyers with uncovered Q3–Q4 needs face a trade‑off between waiting for possible harvest pressure or locking in now at a relatively low point in the cycle. Currency volatility and freight costs add a further layer of risk around forward cover decisions.

Prices & Spreads

US and Spanish almond kernel prices are flat week‑on‑week in EUR terms, with only minor intra‑grade adjustments. Converting current US offers (around USD 6.55–6.60/lb FAS for Carmel SSR and roughly USD 9.23/lb FOB for organic Nonpareil 27/30) implies indicative levels near EUR 6.10–6.20/kg for standard US kernels and about EUR 8.60–8.70/kg for organic, assuming a EUR/USD rate around 1.08. Spanish Marcona and Valencia types cluster between roughly EUR 5.00–7.90/kg FOB Madrid depending on calibre and variety.

Relative pricing keeps a modest premium for Spanish Marcona over US standard kernels, reflecting local demand from confectionery and snack segments. Organic Nonpareil from both origins commands a pronounced premium, consistent with tight organic acreage and certification costs.

Supply & Demand Drivers

United States (California)

Fresh market intelligence confirms that California’s 2026 almond crop is now forecast near 2.7 billion lbs, about 1% below last year, according to USDA‑linked reports and trade commentary. At the same time, newly updated satellite‑based acreage data show total almond area around 1.398 million acres, with bearing acreage dropping for the first time in nearly three decades; this is driving a more bullish structural narrative despite only a modest near‑term production loss.

Recent Almond Board position data and lender analysis highlight stronger March shipment volumes, with exports up mid‑single‑digits month‑on‑month and domestic demand up double digits, led by Europe, China, Japan and Latin America. This combination of slightly lower future supply and firm offtake is tightening forward balance sheets, even as spot kernel offers in early May remain relatively calm.

Spain (Iberia)

In Spain, regional grower organisations expect a moderate recovery in 2026 production after prior drought‑affected seasons. For example, producers in the Valencian Community project more than 8,000 tonnes of almonds, contingent on stable weather through harvest, supported by improved winter rainfall and a stronger bloom. While this boosts local availability of Valencia‑type kernels, national output remains below pre‑drought potential and does not fundamentally loosen the wider Mediterranean balance.

European industrial demand for almonds in confectionery, plant‑based drinks and bakery remains solid, keeping Spain both a consumer and a value‑added processor of imported California product. With California’s structural tightening, Spanish buyers are increasingly sensitive to forward price signals coming out of US handlers and exporters.

Fundamentals & Weather

Seasonal weather in California’s Central Valley is currently described as favourable, with a leading almond index showing conditions broadly supportive of yield potential across Sacramento and San Joaquin regions and little change week‑on‑week. The main agronomic risks near‑term are local heat spikes or water‑allocation constraints rather than disease pressure, given the relatively benign early‑season pattern.

In Spain, winter and early spring rains have helped replenish soil moisture in key producing areas such as Valencia and parts of Andalusia, supporting nut set and early fruit development. However, producer groups still flag downside risks from potential late‑spring storms or heatwaves, which could affect calibre and shelling ratios. Overall, weather is currently a mild positive for supply in both ES and US, but markets are pricing in the possibility that any adverse shift would quickly tighten availability into 2026/27.

Trading Outlook (Next 2–4 Weeks)

• Bias: Mildly bullish. With slightly smaller California crop expectations, lower acreage and firm shipments, replacement costs are now estimated by trade houses at roughly EUR 0.08–0.13/kg above current market in kernel terms, supporting a firmer floor.
• For buyers (EU/ES importers, roasters): Consider scaling in cover for Q3–Q4 on price dips, especially for standard US Carmel and Spanish Valencia grades. Leaving large volumes uncovered in expectation of harvest pressure carries increasing risk if California weather remains benign but acreage continues to contract.
• For sellers (growers, handlers): Maintain offer discipline on forward positions; the structural story favours holding some inventory into late summer, though liquidity needs and storage costs must be weighed carefully. Use any short‑term demand softness (e.g., in price‑sensitive Asian markets) to roll hedges rather than discount aggressively.
• For industrial users (confectionery, plant‑based drinks): Lock in a portion of organic and specialty varieties (Marcona, large‑calibre Nonpareil) where substitution is limited, while keeping some flexibility on standard grades to take advantage of occasional spot offers.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• US (California kernels, EUR basis): Flat to slightly firmer over the next 3 trading days. Strong shipment data and bullish sentiment offset the absence of immediate weather threats; any weakness is likely to be shallow and short‑lived.
• Spain (Valencia, Guara, Marcona, EUR basis): Mostly stable with a very mild upward bias for premium Marcona and organic lines, given improved but still cautious crop expectations and external support from California pricing.