Softening Pigeon Pea Market Meets Stable European Dry Pea Prices

India’s pigeon pea market remains under gentle downward pressure as steady imports, comfortable domestic supplies, and muted miller demand cap prices despite a higher government support price. For European buyers, this softening tone in India coincides with broadly stable dry pea offers in the UK and Ukraine, keeping procurement risk moderate in the near term. India’s wholesale pigeon pea prices in Karnataka slipped again during the review week, even as CNF offers for Myanmar and African origins held mostly steady. At the same time, India has raised its Minimum Support Price (MSP) for the coming kharif season, while Tamil Nadu’s state tenders signal underlying demand support from dal processors. Against this backdrop, UK FOB and Ukrainian FCA dry pea prices in EUR are largely unchanged, and early monsoon forecasts for a slightly weaker 2026 season suggest that weather risk is more of a medium-term issue than an immediate driver for prices.

Prices & Spreads

Pigeon pea prices in India continued to soften week on week. Myanmar-origin lemon pigeon pea for May–June shipment is quoted around USD 847 per tonne CNF and Sudan-origin around USD 862 per tonne CNF, both broadly steady. Mozambique white pigeon pea is cheaper at about USD 654–660 per tonne CNF, reflecting diversified origin competition. At the wholesale level, Karnataka markets traded roughly USD 85.8–86.3 per quintal, down about USD 0.5–1.0 on the week, with expectations to consolidate between USD 84–87 per quintal over the next month.

Processed dal prices are comparatively firm: split (darda) is around USD 112.3–114.4 per quintal, and polished (fatka) about USD 116.5–119.6 per quintal, indicating that margin pressure is falling more on farmers than on urban retail. Converting benchmark values at ~1.0 USD = 0.92 EUR for comparability, Karnataka pigeon pea sits near EUR 78–80 per quintal (EUR 780–800 per tonne), while darda dal trades closer to EUR 103–105 per quintal.

European Dry Pea Benchmarks (Indicative)

UK peas thus trade well above current Indian pigeon pea equivalence, underlining the premium structure for European-quality dry peas, while Ukrainian origins remain highly competitive on a EUR/kg basis.

Supply, Demand & Policy Drivers

India remains simultaneously the largest producer, consumer and importer of pigeon peas, and its current balance is comfortable. Steady import flows from Myanmar, Sudan and Mozambique are keeping coastal and interior markets well supplied. Myanmar-origin volumes are underpinned by a standing import framework, and Sudanese and Mozambican offers add important diversification that limits single-origin supply risk for Indian buyers and, indirectly, for European traders who source through India.

On the demand side, dal millers are notably subdued, with limited willingness to chase higher raw material costs while retail offtake is only moderate. However, Tamil Nadu’s procurement agency TNCSCSC has tendered for 60,000 tonnes of pigeon pea dal (both split and polished) for delivery between July and September 2026, providing a visible demand anchor for processors in southern India. This institutional buying is likely to support processed dal prices even if raw pigeon pea in producing states faces further pressure.

Policy adds a complex layer. The central government has raised the pigeon pea MSP by 5.6% to about USD 87.8 per quintal (roughly EUR 81 per quintal) for the upcoming kharif season. Yet actual procurement remains negligible because spot market prices are trading meaningfully below this floor, indicating that the MSP is more of a theoretical backstop than an active market-clearing mechanism at present. For European importers, this disconnect suggests that India is unlikely to choke off imports abruptly via aggressive procurement in the very near term.

Weather & Monsoon Outlook

Weather risk centers on India’s 2026 southwest monsoon. The India Meteorological Department’s latest long-range guidance points to a below-normal monsoon at roughly 92% of the long-period average, influenced by the likely development of El Niño conditions during June–September. At the same time, the May outlook indicates above-normal rainfall for many regions, improving soil moisture ahead of kharif planting.

The monsoon is expected to reach the Andaman & Nicobar islands in mid-May and is currently projected to advance towards the mainland, with social and media reports pointing to a Kerala onset around late May. While a weaker overall monsoon raises medium-term yield risk for pigeon peas, past experience shows that distribution and timing often matter more than the headline seasonal index. For now, planting expectations remain broadly normal, and the near-term price trend is still dominated by import flows and demand rather than weather.

Short-Term Outlook (2–4 Weeks)

Given the current balance, India’s pigeon pea market is likely to stay soft to sideways in the coming two to four weeks. Karnataka wholesale prices are expected to consolidate in the USD 84–87 per quintal band (approximately EUR 77–80 per quintal), with only limited downside as traders anticipate the impact of upcoming state dal tenders. A pronounced recovery would require either a sharp fall in seaborne arrivals or a stronger-than-expected surge in retail demand, neither of which appears imminent.

For European dry peas, the recent price data from the UK and Ukraine point to stability rather than volatility, with no material changes in EUR terms over the last reporting dates. That said, geopolitical risks around the Black Sea and broader energy and freight markets remain latent upside factors for Ukrainian-origin peas, while currency fluctuations could alter the competitiveness of UK offers for eurozone buyers.

Trading Recommendations

• European importers (pulses / dal blends): Consider staggered coverage for Q3–Q4 2026 requirements, taking advantage of the current soft Indian pigeon pea tone and stable EU dry pea prices. Avoid overcommitting ahead of the final IMD monsoon update later in May.
• Indian processors / European buyers of dal: Use the TNCSCSC tender window and similar institutional programs as reference points for minimum demand. Lock in a portion of processed dal needs while raw pigeon pea remains below MSP, as margins may tighten if monsoon concerns escalate later in the season.
• Feed and ingredient users in Europe: For least-cost formulations including peas, Ukrainian yellow and green peas offer strong value in EUR/kg; diversify origin between Black Sea and UK to hedge logistics and geopolitical risk.
• Risk management: Monitor IMD’s late-May monsoon update and any changes in India’s import or stock policies. Use price dips triggered by weather headlines to extend coverage rather than chase rallies after supply scares.

3-Day Directional Outlook (EUR-based)

• India (pigeon pea, Karnataka wholesale): Mild downward to sideways bias in EUR terms, with local prices holding below MSP as imports stay regular.
• UK (FOB London dry peas): Sideways; no immediate driver for a break from the current 1.02–1.33 EUR/kg range.
• Ukraine (FCA Odesa dry peas): Sideways with a slight upward risk premium, tied to logistics and regional security rather than fundamentals.