EU Feed Oats Hold Steady as German Cash Market Stays Flat

German and Black Sea feed oat prices are broadly stable, with modest pressure from ample EU supply and mostly favourable late‑August weather. Spot indications suggest a sideways market over the next few days, with only limited upside unless broader feed grain markets rally. After several weeks of generally good harvest weather, the German oat market is entering a phase of price consolidation. Regional cash values in northern Germany are aligned with flat EU feed oat benchmarks in Hamburg, while Ukrainian export offers remain competitive but no longer falling. Weather in Lower Saxony is turning hot and mostly dry for a few days, which supports harvest completion but brings little fresh bullish impulse. Feed demand is capped by comfortable forage availability and competition from other cereals, while international trade flows show that surplus oat by‑products are still seeking outlets in Europe, underlining a structurally well‑supplied market.

Prices

EU feed oat reference prices in Hamburg are quoted around EUR 175–180/t for August 2026, down slightly on the month but essentially flat in recent days, signalling a balanced near‑term market. Ukrainian feed oats for export via Odesa remain competitively priced in international terms, but recent indications show no further week‑on‑week declines, suggesting that sellers are resisting additional discounts at current levels.

Against this backdrop, German inland cash prices for feed oats are tracking the EU benchmark and have been broadly unchanged since mid‑August, indicating that recent harvest progress and local arrivals are already priced in. Regional feed reports from western German states also describe a quiet oat market with stable quotations, as attention focuses more on corn and protein meals.

Supply & Demand

Latest regional harvest reports in northern Germany indicate that spring cereals, including oats, are coming in only slightly below the long‑term yield average, confirming a broadly adequate domestic crop despite some local variability. At the same time, European mills continue to report challenges in sourcing top‑quality, milling‑grade oats, which is shifting a larger share of the crop into the feed channel and adding to feed supply.

Beyond Germany, EU oats remain in structural surplus after a strong 2025 harvest, with inventories still high and exports from northern member states expected to stay active. The fact that oat feed by‑products from Latvia are being exported to Ireland, where domestic oats are reportedly struggling to find outlets, underlines the comfortable supply picture for feed uses across north‑western Europe.

On the demand side, feed compounders in Germany and neighbouring countries are focusing on corn, barley and soybean meal amid elevated price volatility in the broader feed complex linked to Black Sea risks and South American supply concerns. This limits substitution into oats, keeping consumption growth modest and reinforcing the mildly bearish tone in the oat balance sheet.

Weather & Crop Conditions (DE Focus)

The short‑term forecast for Drentwede and the wider Lower Saxony region shows predominantly dry and warm to hot conditions from 25–27 August, with daytime highs around 25–30°C and only low to moderate rain probabilities. Such weather is beneficial for wrapping up remaining oat harvest activity and for post‑harvest drying, supporting grain quality and logistics.

So far, Germany’s 2026 growing season has been characterised by generally adequate moisture and only episodic heat, resulting in near‑average yields for most cereals and preventing significant weather‑driven supply shocks. Looking ahead, no major disruptive events are indicated for the coming days, so weather is unlikely to offer fresh bullish momentum for oats in the immediate term.

Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• High EU stocks: Elevated oat inventories after last year’s large crop continue to overhang the market, capping rallies in spot prices.
• Feed vs. food use: Mills report tighter availability of premium milling oats, but this mainly reallocates volume to feed rather than tightening overall supply.
• International flows: Trade in oat by‑products, such as Latvian oat feed moving into Ireland, confirms that surplus material is still searching for demand within the EU.
• Competing feed grains: Strength in corn and soybean meal linked to Black Sea and South American risks keeps rations focused on those components, limiting incremental oat demand.

Trading Outlook (Next 3–5 Days)

• For buyers (feed compounders, livestock farms): Consider maintaining only hand‑to‑mouth coverage; ample regional supply and quiet demand argue for patience, with potential to secure similar or slightly lower prices if broader feed markets ease.
• For sellers (farmers, local collectors): With harvest nearly complete and weather supportive, holding moderate stocks is reasonable, but upside is limited; scale‑up sales on any short‑lived rallies driven by external feed grain strength.
• For traders: Basis levels in northern Germany are expected to remain stable; opportunities lie mainly in logistics and arbitrage between inland Germany and Baltic/Black Sea origination rather than outright price moves.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (DE)

• Northern Germany (ex farm / EXW): Sideways, with a slight downward risk if corn and barley weaken further.
• Hamburg export corridor: Sideways to marginally softer as export demand is steady but unspectacular.