European Sugar Market: Price Stability Amid Competitive Pressures and Crop Uncertainty

Europe’s sugar market is currently navigating a phase of relative price stability, despite underlying competitive dynamics and ongoing uncertainty about the 2025 crop. Market activity is marked by aggressive offers from key producers, with Nordzucker and KSC setting the tone for regional pricing.

Nordzucker is offering 5,000 mt of granulated sugar from Poland/Latvia at 0.53 EUR/kg EXW for shipment until September, while KSC’s Polish sugar is available to Eastern European buyers at 0.535 EUR/kg DDP. Tereos, a major player in Central Europe, has maintained its granulated sugar prices at 0.58 EUR/kg EXW from Czech factories, holding back a planned increase to 0.61 EUR/kg due to price competition from Polish suppliers. Notably, Tereos’ forward pricing for the 2025 crop has been set at 0.64 EUR/kg, reflecting expectations of tighter supply and potential cost pressures in the next season.

Current spot prices across Europe show a narrow range, with most offers between 0.53 and 0.58 EUR/kg FCA, underscoring a well-supplied market but with limited downward movement. Market sentiment is neutral to slightly bearish, as buyers remain cautious and suppliers compete for market share. Weather remains a critical variable, especially as planting and early growth stages for the new crop are underway. The next few weeks will be pivotal as weather conditions across Central and Eastern Europe could significantly impact yield prospects. This competitive landscape is likely to keep prices capped in the short term, but any adverse weather or supply disruption could quickly change the outlook.

📈 Prices

Origin	Location	Type	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Date	Sentiment
Poland/Latvia	EXW	Granulated	EXW	0.53	–	2025-05-20	Bearish
Poland (KSC)	Eastern Europe	Granulated	DDP	0.535	–	2025-05-20	Neutral
Czech Rep. (Tereos)	Czechia	Granulated	EXW	0.58	0.58	2025-05-20	Neutral
UK	Norfolk	ICUMSA 32	FCA	0.56	0.56	2025-05-20	Stable
Ukraine	Vyškov, CZ	ICUMSA 45	FCA	0.54	0.54	2025-05-20	Stable
Lithuania	Mirijampole	ICUMSA 45	FCA	0.53	0.53	2025-05-19	Bearish
Germany	Berlin	ICUMSA 45	FCA	0.66	0.66	2025-05-20	Premium

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: Regional supply is ample, with competitive offers from Poland, Latvia, Czechia, and Lithuania keeping prices in check. Nordzucker and KSC are actively marketing large lots, boosting liquidity in the market.
• Demand: Buyer interest is steady but cautious. Eastern European buyers are particularly price-sensitive, favouring Polish and Lithuanian origins. Western Europe sees stable industrial demand.
• Inventories: Stocks remain comfortable in most European regions, limiting upward price momentum.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA & EU Reports: Recent EU and USDA reports indicate stable European production in 2024, but forward estimates for 2025 reflect some risk due to weather and input costs.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money has trimmed long positions on Euronext sugar futures, reflecting a less bullish outlook.
• Crop Acreage: No major changes reported, but weather-driven yield variability is a key risk for the new crop.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Central Europe: Recent rains have benefited beet emergence in Poland, Czechia, and Germany. However, forecasts call for a drier, warmer spell in late May, which could stress young crops if extended.
• Eastern Europe: Conditions are generally favorable, but localized dryness in southern Poland and western Ukraine warrants monitoring.
• Yield Impact: Weather in the next 2-3 weeks will be critical for setting yield potential. Any prolonged drought or heat could tighten the market quickly.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country/Region	2024 Production (Mt)	2024 Ending Stocks (Mt)	YoY Change
EU-27	16.3	2.0	-2%
Brazil	44.5	8.1	+3%
India	32.7	5.5	-5%
Thailand	9.1	1.7	+1%

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Spot buyers should take advantage of current competitive offers, especially from Polish and Lithuanian suppliers.
• Forward buyers may consider locking in a portion of needs for 2025 at current Tereos offers (0.64 EUR/kg), as weather risks could drive prices higher later in the season.
• Producers should monitor weather developments closely and be prepared for possible tightening if adverse conditions persist.
• Speculators: Neutral to mildly bearish in the short term, but stay alert for weather-driven volatility.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Trend
Central Europe (EXW/Poland)	0.53	0.53 – 0.54	Stable
Czechia (EXW)	0.58	0.57 – 0.58	Slightly Lower
UK (FCA)	0.56	0.56 – 0.57	Stable
Lithuania (FCA)	0.53	0.53 – 0.54	Stable