Feed barley steady in Germany while Ukrainian export values ease

Feed barley prices in northern Germany are holding broadly steady, while Ukrainian export values edge lower on ample supply and early forward sales. The nearby spread between German EXW and Ukrainian Black Sea barley has narrowed, keeping EU compounders well supplied but limiting upside for domestic farmers. The barley market in Germany currently trades in the shadow of competitive Black Sea offers and a generally comfortable EU grains balance. In northern Germany, feed barley for nearby delivery is quoted around the low‑€0.20/kg range ex farm, with localized offers in Lower Saxony slightly below that level, reflecting weak feed demand and good on‑farm availability. In Ukraine, traders have already contracted up to 700,000 tonnes of barley for export in 2026/27, signalling strong export intent and reinforcing price pressure in the Black Sea basin. Short‑term, weather and logistics, rather than fundamentals, are the main sources of price risk.

Prices & Differentials

Spot and nearby values (converted to EUR/kg) indicate a modest premium for German origin over Ukrainian Black Sea feed barley, but the gap has compressed over recent weeks. Ukraine’s internal barley prices are quoted near 0.13–0.14 EUR/kg at farm level, significantly below EU levels, underscoring the export competitiveness of Black Sea origin.

The small discount of German feed barley versus some quoted Black Sea FCA levels is largely offset by inland logistics, keeping imported barley attractive mainly for coastal and Danube‑adjacent users. With overall EU grains production for 2026 forecast about 6% below last year, barley is benefiting from some structural support, but this is not yet translating into a strong short‑term rally in spot prices.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

On the supply side, EU‑27 total grains output is projected to fall to around 275 million tonnes in 2026, down 6% year on year, with barley contributing to the decline due to slightly reduced area and only average yields. Ukraine, however, expects its total grain and oilseed harvest to increase to roughly 83.6 million tonnes this year, including about 5.2 million tonnes of barley, up from 4.9 million tonnes in 2025.

Forward contracting in Ukraine is brisk: traders have already booked up to 700,000 tonnes of barley for export in the 2026/27 season, signalling confidence in export logistics despite ongoing regional security risks. In addition, Ukrainian authorities report the opening of 23 new agricultural export destinations in the first half of 2026, which should progressively diversify outlets and reduce dependence on a few key buyers. This combination of larger crop and proactive marketing keeps a ceiling on Black Sea prices and, by extension, caps upside for German feed barley.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Germany‑focused)

Weather in Germany has been highly variable through spring, with many regions reporting frequent rain and only intermittent warm spells, leaving soils generally well supplied with moisture. Looking ahead, a strong heat wave is expected to build over southern Germany from next week, raising concerns about heat stress during late grain filling for spring barley in the most exposed areas.

For northern Germany, including Lower Saxony and surrounding feed barley regions, the short‑term forecast points to warmer, drier conditions but not yet extreme heat over the next few days. This should support rapid crop development and fieldwork without immediate yield damage. Weather therefore represents a modest upside price risk for July–August if heat expands northward, but the 3‑day horizon remains largely neutral for production expectations and spot prices.

Market Drivers to Watch

• EU grain balance: Coceral’s projection of a 6% smaller EU‑27 grains harvest in 2026 could tighten the overall balance later in the season, indirectly supporting feed barley once new‑crop volumes are fully priced.
• Ukrainian export pace: Higher Ukrainian barley output and aggressive pre‑harvest contracting keep export flows strong, anchoring Black Sea values and limiting EU price inflation.
• Feed demand: Soft EU livestock profitability and relatively cheap alternative feed grains curb spot demand for barley in rations, particularly in Germany’s pig and cattle sectors, contributing to sideways price action.
• Logistics & security: While not in the headlines over the last three days, any renewed disruption to Black Sea export corridors would quickly widen the basis between German and Ukrainian barley.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• German farmers: Consider forward locking a portion of expected new‑crop feed barley if local bids approach or exceed the mid‑€0.20/kg range ex farm, especially in regions with average‑to‑good yield prospects and limited on‑farm storage.
• Feed compounders (Germany/Benelux): Maintain a balanced coverage strategy; current spreads versus Ukrainian and other Black Sea origins remain attractive, but the risk‑reward of further waiting is limited given potential weather volatility.
• Traders: Monitor Black Sea FOB/Odesa basis closely; with Ukrainian sales already advanced, nearby downside appears modest, while upside will depend largely on any logistics or geopolitical shocks.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR, directional)

• N Germany (Lower Saxony, EXW feed barley): ~€0.18/kg; expected steady as local supply and demand remain balanced.
• Black Sea, Ukraine (Odesa FCA/FOB feed barley, EUR‑equivalent): ~€0.19–0.22/kg; bias slightly softer to flat amid ample supply and firm export interest.
• Inland Germany (feed users): Delivered feed barley costs should track sideways, with only minor freight‑driven variation and limited influence from broader grains markets over the next three days.