Feed Oats Stay Flat in Germany and Ukraine as Harvest Pressure Eases
Feed oat prices in Germany and Ukraine remain stable in late September 2026 amid comfortable supply, benign weather and manageable Black Sea logistics risks.
Prices
Current regional spot indications:
| Origin | Grade / Type | Location | Delivery | Price (EUR/kg) | WoW change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany (DE) | Feed oat, moisture 14% max | Drentwede | EXW | 0.205 | Stable vs. last week |
| Ukraine (UA) | Oat for feed, 98% purity | Odesa | FCA | 0.19 | Stable vs. last week |
German regional EXW prices around Drentwede are aligned with reported national farm-gate feed oat averages for September, which show modest month-on-month gains but remain below last year, indicating a firm yet not tight market. EU cereal price data similarly point to small increases in feed oats, supporting the current flat but slightly elevated price environment.
Supply & Demand
For Germany, official and regional feed market reports for the second half of September describe well-supplied feed grain markets, with barley and wheat competing strongly into rations and no sign of acute tightness in oats. National average feed oat prices have firmed moderately month on month, but ample availability and diversified feed options are preventing any sharp rally.
In Ukraine, the main constraint remains export logistics rather than primary oat availability. Black Sea security risks and shifting export routes toward EU and potentially Baltic ports are creating uncertainty on freight and execution but have not translated into visible price spikes in feed oats. Danube and alternative corridors help cap domestic surpluses, keeping FCA Black Sea oat values broadly stable.
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Weather Outlook (DE, UA)
Germany’s key cereal regions, including Lower Saxony around Drentwede, face a mainly dry and seasonally mild pattern over the next three days, with only light, scattered showers. This favors remaining fieldwork and logistics and does not pose any quality risk for stored or late-harvested oats.
In Ukraine, the national meteorological service’s 3‑day forecast calls for mixed cloud, brief showers in parts of the north and west, and near‑normal temperatures, with no severe weather signals for the main grain belt. With harvest essentially completed and transport the main bottleneck, this neutral weather scenario keeps the short-term fundamental picture unchanged.
Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- EU oat balance: Recent EU cereal price data confirm that feed oat prices have edged higher month on month but remain several percent below year-ago levels, pointing to comfortable stocks despite smaller 2026 plantings.
- Feed demand: National feed statistics and regional quotations in Germany indicate stable compound feed demand, with oats maintaining a niche role versus barley and wheat; no demand shock is visible in late September.
- Logistics risk in Black Sea: Ongoing disruptions and rerouting of grain flows away from the Black Sea push Ukraine to explore alternative outlets, but current capacity via Danube and EU routes appears sufficient to avoid an acute domestic glut in oats.
3-Day Trading & Price Outlook (DE, UA)
- Germany (EXW Drentwede): Expect a sideways price trend around 0.205 EUR/kg for feed oats, with only minor, farm-specific basis moves as harvest pressure fades and buyers cover nearby needs on dips.
- Ukraine (FCA Odesa): Prices are likely to remain near 0.19 EUR/kg in the coming three days. Freight and corridor headlines could briefly widen bid‑offer spreads, but no clear directional driver is visible short term.
- Relative value: The small premium of German EXW over Ukrainian FCA levels should persist given higher internal logistics and stronger overall EU demand, but arbitrage remains constrained by freight and risk costs.
Overall, with harvest largely done, benign weather, and no immediate shock from logistics or demand, the short-term bias for feed oats in both Germany and Ukraine is neutral to slightly firm, but confined to a very narrow range.