Hazelnuts: Turkish Floor Tested as Georgian Premium Softens

Turkish hazelnut kernel prices are stabilising after recent volatility, with natural kernels edging higher in EUR terms, while Georgian-origin kernels in Central Europe are easing slightly but still command a sizable premium. Weak global confectionery demand and a soft Turkish lira cap the upside, while weather and crop uncertainty limit downside. In the last week, Turkish FOB Istanbul offers for natural kernels have moved modestly higher in EUR, helped by a weaker lira and some renewed export buying, while processed forms (meal, diced) remain under mild pressure. Georgian kernels ex-Warsaw have softened by around EUR 0.15–0.20/kg but remain roughly EUR 2.5–3.0/kg above Turkish equivalents, reflecting perceived quality and tighter availability. Overall, the market trades in a narrow range, with buyers testing the Turkish floor and using Georgian offers selectively for premium applications.

Prices & Spreads

Using the latest EUR/TRY reference around 52.88 on 27 April 2026, Turkish FOB kernel offers convert to roughly EUR 0.16/kg per 1 TRY-equivalent, keeping export prices competitive on a global basis. Recent market commentary confirms that Turkish hazelnut prices have shifted from panic selling to controlled stabilisation, as large institutional buying tightened nearby availability and set an informal floor for raw kernels. Georgian kernels into Central Europe continue to trade at a notable premium, with natural 11–13 mm quoted above EUR 10.70/kg and 13–15 mm around EUR 11.30/kg FCA, signalling strong demand for alternative origins despite softer overall consumption.

Supply, Demand & Weather (TR & GE)

Recent frost episodes in Turkey’s Black Sea belt earlier in the season, combined with structural climate pressures, have kept attention on 2026/27 crop potential and contributed to firmer sentiment versus what current demand alone would justify. Market reports describe the upcoming Turkish crop as broadly “average” at this stage, but orchard stress from previous weather events and limited input use mean even a normal harvest may not restore comfortable surpluses.

In Georgia, latest structural data show hazelnut production around 43,600 tonnes in 2024, with key regions such as Samegrelo, Guria and Imereti remaining central to exports. There is no fresh evidence from the last few days of major weather shocks in these regions, suggesting a relatively steady near-term supply backdrop compared with Turkey. This contrast supports the persistence of Georgian premiums but also caps their expansion as buyers remain price-sensitive.

Short-Term Weather Outlook (Next ~3 Days)

• Turkey (Black Sea – Giresun/Ordu/Sakarya): Forecasts for late April indicate generally mild, seasonally cool but frost-free conditions with some scattered showers, reducing immediate frost risk and supporting blossom and early nut set. (Based on up-to-date regional forecasts for the Turkish Black Sea coast.)
• Georgia (Samegrelo, Guria, Imereti): Weather models point to typical spring patterns: mild temperatures with intermittent rain, favourable for vegetative growth and not currently threatening flowering. (Based on current short-range Georgian regional forecasts.)

With acute frost risk receding in both TR and GE for the coming days, weather is more a medium-term yield and quality risk than an immediate price shock driver.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

Turkish export data and trade commentary indicate that hazelnut shipments remain below normal levels, reflecting subdued chocolate and confectionery demand amid high combined hazelnut and cocoa prices. The weak but volatile Turkish lira – trading around TRY 52.9 per EUR and up over 3% versus the start of April – continues to underpin Turkey’s competitiveness while creating uncertainty for exporters’ margins.

At the same time, buyers in Europe are increasingly willing to diversify away from Turkey, with Georgian kernels gaining traction in Central Europe, particularly in premium segments, though still representing a smaller share of global trade. Industry sources highlight that the market leader’s recent purchases around 22,000–25,000 mt in Turkey have tightened nearby availability and effectively defined a trading corridor for raw kernels, but have not yet triggered a sustained rally due to ongoing demand headwinds.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View (TR vs GE)

Trading Recommendations (Short-Term)

• Buyers using TR origin: Consider scaling in coverage on natural kernels at current levels, especially 13–15 mm, as the combination of a soft lira and stabilised local prices offers an attractive EUR-based entry while weather risks still underpin the floor.
• Premium users (GE vs TR): Maintain a mixed-origin strategy: use Georgian kernels selectively for quality-sensitive products but look to substitute into Turkish origin where specifications allow, as the GE premium above EUR 2.5/kg may be hard to sustain if demand remains weak.
• Suppliers in TR and GE: Avoid aggressive forward discounting; with stocks not burdensome and new-crop uncertainty intact, focus on nearby sales and flexible pricing formulas linked to FX and quality.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (in EUR)

• Turkey – FOB Istanbul kernels (natural 11–13 & 13–15 mm): Sideways to slightly firm (0 to +1%) as stabilised local buying and a weak lira offset sluggish export demand.
• Turkey – processed forms (roasted meal, diced): Mildly soft (0 to −1%) on slower industrial demand and buyer preference to first secure raw kernel cover.
• Georgia – FCA Central Europe kernels (all sizes): Sideways to slightly easier (0 to −1%) as buyers push back against high premiums and see no immediate weather threat.