Almond prices ease as record Spanish crop looms and California stays firm

Almond kernel prices in both Spain and the US are edging slightly lower in early May, with Spanish Valencia and Guara types under the most pressure while US Nonpareil and Carmel grades remain relatively firm. Strong export demand out of California and expectations of a record Spanish crop in 2026 are keeping the market well supplied but with a cautiously supportive undertone. Physical trading is currently dominated by small, price-sensitive adjustments rather than big directional moves. Spanish FOB Madrid prices for Valencia and Guara have eased a few euro cents per kg over the past three weeks, while US FAS/FOB offers for Carmel and organic Nonpareil have also slipped marginally. Favorable post-bloom weather in California and good growing conditions in Southern Spain point to solid new-crop prospects, suggesting buyers can continue to secure forward cover on modest dips, though downside from here may be limited if demand holds.

Prices

All prices converted to approximate EUR/kg using 1.00 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR.

• US kernel prices remain at a premium to Spanish Valencia but the gap is narrowing slightly as Spanish offers soften.
• Organic Nonpareil retains a firm premium, but it is also drifting marginally lower in both origins.

Supply & Demand

California export demand remains strong. The Almond Board of California’s March 2026 position data show global shipments around 258 million lbs, up 16.5% year on year, with exports +21% and total exports for the season 3% ahead of last year, indicating solid absorption of supply, especially from Europe and Asia.

On the supply side, industry analysis points to a mixed but tightening tree nut outlook in California, with some acreage shifts and expectations that reduced plantings over time could help balance supply and support prices as demand strengthens. In Spain, the Spanish Almond Board (SAB-Almendrave) recently projected a record 2026 almond crop of about 146,000 tonnes kernel basis, significantly boosting European-origin availability for the coming season.

• Short term: strong export pull from California, particularly into the EU, is preventing a sharper price correction.
• Medium term: record Spanish crop plus large US carryout point to abundant supply into 2026/27, capping rallies.

Fundamentals & Weather

California’s 2025 crop was around 3.0 billion lbs and early industry estimates for the 2026 crop suggest broadly favorable post-bloom conditions, with analysts noting that post-bloom weather has been supportive of nut set. Current short-term weather in California’s main almond regions is warm and sunny, with maximum temperatures near 28–31°C over May 9–11, ideal for continued kernel fill and orchard operations, and posing no immediate weather threat.

In Spain, SAB-Almendrave’s record-crop projection is underpinned by expanded bearing area and mostly favorable conditions across key producing regions. The 3‑day outlook for Andalusia calls for mild temperatures (highs around 21–23°C) with only brief, light showers, which should not significantly disrupt crop development at this stage.

• Weather in both California and Southern Spain is presently neutral-to-bearish for prices, supporting good yield prospects.
• No acute frost, heat or water stress signals are visible in the very short term for major growing belts.

Trading Outlook (next 1–2 weeks)

• Buyers (roasters, packers): Use the current mild downward drift to extend nearby and early new-crop cover, especially in Spanish Valencia and Guara grades where offers have softened slightly more than in US product.
• Origin sellers (growers, cooperatives): Consider scaling hedges rather than aggressive selling at current levels; strong export shipments and still-uncertain final 2026 yield in California argue against chasing the market lower.
• Traders: Watch upcoming US shipment and acreage updates closely; any sign of slowing export pace or larger-than-expected carryout would add downside risk, while confirmation of acreage contraction could underpin Q3–Q4 prices.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (directional)

• US (California-linked, ES destination): With warm, benign weather and strong recent exports, benchmark kernel prices in EUR terms are likely to trade sideways to slightly softer over the next three days, mainly reflecting small FX and freight-driven adjustments.
• Spain (Andalusia & other ES origins): Record‑crop expectations and favorable weather suggest continued slight downward bias for FOB Madrid offers in conventional Valencia/Guara and Marcona, while organic premiums should remain firm but may ease marginally on thin liquidity.