Pigeon Peas Under Pressure: Myanmar Surplus Meets Soft Indian Demand

Myanmar’s pigeon pea market is softening as export flows slow and a sizeable surplus builds, while Indian prices remain broadly stable. For European buyers of processed pigeon pea products, this combination points to mildly pressured raw material prices in the near term rather than an imminent rally. A sharp decline in Myanmar’s January–April 2026 pigeon pea shipments to India — despite India’s status as the dominant global importer — underscores how structurally softer Indian demand is reshaping trade flows. African origins continue to displace Myanmar in India’s import mix, while New Delhi’s current policy actions are focused on supporting other pulses domestically rather than pulling in additional pigeon pea volumes. For European users of dal and pulse-based ingredients, this creates a window to secure competitive pricing before any seasonal or policy-driven recovery in Indian buying tightens the market.

Prices & Current Market Tone

Myanmar’s pigeon pea export pipeline has accumulated an unusual stockpile after shipments to India fell to 88,494 tonnes in January–April 2026, down from around 119,000 tonnes in the same period of both 2024 and 2025. Indian wholesale prices for pigeon pea remain relatively stable, indicating that weaker import demand is not the result of a sudden consumption shock but of comfortable domestic availability and ongoing stock drawdowns.

In Europe, processed pigeon pea products (split dal, flour and value-added preparations) are seeing mild downward pressure on raw material costs as Myanmar-origin supplies seek alternative outlets amid India’s slowdown. Against this backdrop, spot offers for other pea categories remain steady: recent European offers for dried peas show green peas FOB GB around EUR 1.02/kg and marrowfat peas at approximately EUR 1.33/kg, while Ukrainian green peas FCA Odesa are quoted near EUR 0.34/kg and yellow peas at about EUR 0.26/kg, all broadly unchanged over recent weeks.

Supply & Demand Dynamics

The core driver of the current pigeon pea balance is India’s structurally softer import requirement. Domestic pigeon pea production has been sufficient to moderate India’s import needs, and dal processing mills are drawing down local inventories before turning to Myanmar-origin beans. This behavior has sharply reduced Myanmar’s export pace even though a longstanding bilateral framework and duty-free import status keep formal access to the Indian market open.

At the same time, African-origin pigeon pea from Mozambique, Tanzania and Malawi has steadily gained share in India thanks to competitive pricing and improved supply reliability. These origins have become India’s preferred import sources in recent seasons, further eroding Myanmar’s position. While India has recently reaffirmed tariff relief on key pulses such as pigeon pea and black matpe through the 2026–27 horizon, the immediate effect on Myanmar shipments is muted because the bottleneck is demand from Indian mills, not policy access.

Fundamentals & Policy Backdrop

Fundamentals on the Myanmar side are defined by exportable surplus rather than production shortfall. With pigeon pea primarily an export crop and limited domestic absorption, the reduction in Indian buying quickly translates into higher carryover stocks and more aggressive export offers. This is feeding through into softer forward indications for raw pigeon peas destined for processing into dal and flour.

In India, recent policy moves highlight the government’s focus on supporting pulse farmers via minimum support price (MSP) schemes rather than actively managing pigeon pea import flows. New Delhi has approved purchases of over 9,000 tonnes of sunflower seed in Karnataka and extended chickpea procurement in Maharashtra to 29 May 2026, signaling an operational and political emphasis on MSP delivery. For pigeon pea, MSP procurement and the free-import window coexist, but current mill behavior suggests MSP is giving farmers a floor while mills remain cautious buyers of imported raw material.

Weather & Regional Outlook

Weather conditions across key pigeon pea growing zones in India and Myanmar will matter more for medium‑term supply than for the immediate two‑to‑three‑month horizon. At present, the market’s short‑term softness is driven far more by inventory and demand management than by weather disruptions. Unless a significant weather shock emerges during the next planting cycle, the accumulated Myanmar surplus and steady African supplies should continue to cap upside in export offers.

European pea markets for green and marrowfat peas are currently more influenced by local crop prospects and Black Sea logistics than by pigeon pea fundamentals. Ukrainian green and yellow pea prices have eased slightly in late April, reflecting comfortable regional supplies and seasonal selling, while UK-origin peas have traded sideways in recent weeks.

Short-Term Price Outlook (2–3 Months)

For the next two to three months, raw pigeon pea pricing is expected to remain under mild downward pressure or broadly sideways as Myanmar works down its surplus and Indian mills continue to prioritize domestic stocks. Any meaningful recovery in Indian demand — driven either by a seasonal consumption uptick or a renewed policy push to build buffer stocks — would, however, quickly absorb Myanmar’s export overhang and tighten the market.

For European buyers of processed pigeon pea products, this window represents an opportunity to secure forward cover at currently favorable cost levels. The main risk to this view is a faster‑than‑expected shift in Indian procurement behavior or a weather‑related downgrade to the next Indian crop that could bring India back to the import market more aggressively.

Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• European food manufacturers: Consider extending coverage for split pigeon pea, flour and value‑added pulse ingredients over the next 2–3 months while Myanmar-origin raw material remains under pressure and Indian demand is subdued.
• Importers/traders: Be selective with new Myanmar purchases; focus on flexible shipment windows and competitive freight, as any rebound in Indian demand could rapidly tighten availability and narrow margins.
• Dal processors in India and the EU: Use the current soft tone to lock in raw pigeon pea inputs where possible, but retain optionality in contracts to respond to policy signals or a stronger festival‑season demand profile later in the year.

3-Day Regional Price Indication

• Myanmar–India pigeon pea corridor: Export offers steady to slightly weaker in EUR terms, reflecting surplus stocks and cautious Indian mill buying.
• UK dried peas (green, marrowfat): Sideways over the next three days around EUR 1.02–1.33/kg FOB London, with limited fresh directional drivers.
• Black Sea peas (UA green/yellow): Slightly soft bias after recent small declines to about EUR 0.34/kg (green) and EUR 0.26/kg (yellow) FCA Odesa, assuming stable logistics and freight.