China Adzuki Beans: High Farmer Sales, Weak Demand Keep Prices Flat

Domestic adzuki bean prices in China remain broadly stable as high farmer sales meet only cautious downstream demand, keeping trading thin and limiting upside. China’s main adzuki-producing regions have largely completed farmer selling, with an average sales progress around 87–94%, while traders in the Northeast hold heterogeneous but generally manageable stocks. Cost support in origin areas underpins current price levels, yet distribution markets are mostly replenishing on demand and working through existing inventories, which suppresses成交 activity. Internationally, Chinese FOB prices for adzuki and alternative beans show only marginal week‑on‑week moves, reinforcing a sideways tone rather than a strong directional trend in the very short term.

Prices & Market Tone

In China’s export hub (FOB Beijing), current indicative bean prices in EUR show a broadly steady pattern, with only small week‑to‑week adjustments. Red adzuki beans trade around 1.33–1.41 EUR/kg depending on quality and organic status, while substitute beans such as mung and kidney beans are priced in overlapping ranges, limiting substitution-driven price spikes. The domestic spot market for red adzuki is supported by production costs in main origins, but a lack of strong end-user buying keeps the overall tone flat to slightly firm rather than bullish.

Supply & Demand Balance

On the supply side, farmer selling of the 2025 red adzuki crop is largely advanced. Feedback from producing regions indicates average sales progress of about 87% nationwide, with Heilongjiang’s Daqing, Qiqihar and Hegang at roughly 85–92%, Harbin (Shangzhi) around 92%, and both Jilin and Jiangsu close to 94%. This means most farm stocks are already transferred into commercial hands, leaving limited residual on-farm supply to influence prices in the short run.

Trader inventories in the Northeast are mixed: some operators hold 200–500 tonnes, while others have increased stocks to around 1,000 tonnes. However, downstream demand does not match this supply readiness. In consumption and distribution markets, buyers primarily replenish on a just‑in‑time basis and many continue to digest existing inventories. As a result, spot trade is described as persistently subdued, with few large-volume deals and a preference for small, flexible purchases.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, cost support in producing areas is the key pillar for current red adzuki prices. With farmers largely sold out and production costs already embedded in trader purchase levels, holders are reluctant to grant significant discounts. Nevertheless, the absence of strong off‑take from processors and wholesalers prevents sellers from pushing prices markedly higher, generating a narrow trading range.

Short-term weather in core Northeast production regions (Heilongjiang and Jilin) is seasonally mixed but not critical for the current marketing phase, as most beans are already in storage. Forecasts for the next three days point to a combination of clouds, scattered showers and warm temperatures, conditions that should not materially affect existing stocks or logistics. In Jiangsu, humid and occasionally stormy weather may briefly disrupt transport, but no major supply shock is expected.

Outlook & Trading Strategy

• Flat to slightly firm prices: With farmer sales largely completed and origin costs firm, red adzuki prices are likely to trade sideways with a mild upward bias unless demand weakens further.
• Origin buying on dips: Processors and exporters may consider incremental purchases on any small price dips, focusing on well-located Northeast stocks where volumes of 200–1,000 tonnes are available.
• Cautious forward sales: Traders holding larger inventories should avoid aggressive forward selling; a staged sales approach can help manage demand risk in a generally quiet market.
• Watch substitution beans: Monitor mung and kidney bean prices, as narrow spreads between these and adzuki can cap upside if buyers switch between small red beans and alternatives.

3‑Day Price Indication (EUR)

Given firm costs, advanced farmer sales and weak but stable demand, adzuki and related bean prices in China are expected to remain broadly steady over the next three days:

• CN FOB Beijing – red adzuki: Sideways, around 1.32–1.42 EUR/kg.
• CN FOB Beijing – mung beans: Stable, about 1.45–1.56 EUR/kg.
• CN FOB Beijing – dark red kidney beans: Narrow range, roughly 1.20–1.24 EUR/kg.