Russian Wheat Exports Surge Toward Third Record Season as Prices Stabilize

Russian wheat exports are on track for a third near‑record season, reinforcing global supply and capping major price rallies despite local weather risks and weaker US output. Cash wheat prices in the Black Sea and EU remain broadly stable in EUR terms, with only moderate upside driven by currency moves and selective weather concerns. The global wheat balance is increasingly shaped by Russia’s export capacity. For 2025/26, Russian wheat exports are projected around 46.5 million tonnes, close to the record levels of 2022/23 and 2023/24, with March–April 2026 shipments already showing a strong surge. At the same time, Ukrainian and EU physical prices in EUR are holding steady, suggesting that abundant Black Sea supply and fierce competition continue to limit any sustained price spikes for now.

Prices & Cash Market

Ukrainian physical wheat remains very competitive and stable in EUR terms. FCA offers in Kyiv and Odesa for 9.5–11.5% protein wheat trade around EUR 0.23–0.25/kg (≈EUR 230–250/t), with virtually no change between late April and May, indicating a flat cash curve despite futures volatility and geopolitical noise. Euronext (Paris) milling wheat with 11% protein is indicated near EUR 0.29/kg FOB (≈EUR 290/t), maintaining a premium over Black Sea origins. US FOB indications (CBOT‑linked, 11.5% protein) are lower in EUR/kg terms but are constrained by tighter balance sheets and rising domestic prices.

Recent reports on Black Sea trade show Russian 12.5% wheat broadly stable into mid‑May in USD terms, with market participants not expecting prices to fall far below the low‑USD 230s/mt range. Converted into EUR, this still keeps Russian offers comfortably competitive versus EU and US wheat and broadly aligned with Ukrainian FOB indications. Futures on CBOT have rebounded modestly, while MATIF is steady, confirming that the physical market is well supplied and margins for exporters are tight but manageable.

Supply & Demand: Russia in the Lead

Russia remains the dominant force in global wheat trade. For the 2025/26 agricultural year (July–June), Russian wheat exports are forecast at about 46.5 million tonnes, which would mark the third‑largest volume in the country’s history. Preliminary estimates suggest exports of 44.9 million tonnes between July 2025 and May 2026, with the final June shipments lifting the total to the projected level. The turning point came in March–April, when exports jumped to nearly 5 million tonnes in March and 4.2 million tonnes in April, as higher global prices combined with a weaker ruble improved export margins.

Despite localized production issues in key southern regions such as Rostov and Krasnodar, Russia is expected to keep its export pipeline well supplied. Current projections see the 2025 wheat harvest at roughly 91 million tonnes, in line with last year, with upside to around 95 million tonnes if weather remains favorable. USDA and other international forecasts also position Russia as the largest global wheat exporter in 2025/26 and 2026/27, supported by large carry‑in stocks and strong competitiveness even as some other exporters (notably the US and parts of the Southern Hemisphere) face smaller crops and weather‑related risks.

Fundamentals & Weather

Soil moisture reserves across most Russian grain‑producing regions are currently rated high to medium, providing a solid foundation for yield formation. Short‑term weather outlooks for southern Russia (Rostov and Krasnodar) in late May point to generally seasonal temperatures with no immediate signs of extreme heat or prolonged drought that could severely threaten winter wheat. This, combined with adequate subsoil moisture, supports the scenario of a harvest at least matching last year’s volume.

Globally, fundamentals are mixed but ultimately still comfortable. The latest USDA projections indicate that, while global wheat production may ease back from recent records in 2026/27, it remains above the 10‑year average. At the same time, the US is facing a significantly tighter wheat balance due to drought‑affected output, which supports higher US domestic prices and tempers its export role. In contrast, Russia and the EU continue to underpin export availability, with Russia in particular offsetting smaller crops elsewhere and keeping global trade flows robust.

Risks & Market Drivers

• Currency dynamics: The earlier weakening of the ruble was a key driver behind the March–April export surge, boosting Russian competitiveness. A reversal toward a stronger ruble could squeeze margins and slow exports later in the season.
• Regional weather risk: While current Russian conditions are broadly favorable, any shift to hot and dry weather in southern Russia or the Black Sea during grain filling could quickly trim the expected 91–95 million tonne wheat crop and lend support to prices.
• Logistics and geopolitical risk: Black Sea shipping routes remain exposed to conflict‑related disruptions. Any escalation that affects ports or insurance costs would likely widen Black Sea vs. EU/US price spreads and prompt risk premiums in futures.
• Demand shifts: Importers may opportunistically front‑load purchases from Russia and Ukraine while prices are stable. A sudden return of large buyers or policy changes (e.g., import tariffs, export quotas) could firm prices more rapidly than current fundamentals suggest.

Trading Outlook

• Importers: Current EUR‑denominated Black Sea prices offer attractive coverage. Consider extending coverage modestly into Q3 2026 while Russian export flows remain strong and weather is benign, but avoid over‑committing in case of a larger‑than‑expected Russian harvest that could cap prices further.
• Exporters (Black Sea): With margins tight but volumes strong, focus on locking in forward sales on weather‑driven futures rallies, especially if the ruble stabilizes or strengthens. Managing freight and insurance risk around the Black Sea remains critical.
• EU producers & traders: The premium of Paris FOB over Ukrainian and Russian wheat is likely to persist but could narrow if Black Sea supply exceeds expectations. Use modest price rallies to hedge 2025/26 production, particularly if local weather turns more favorable.
• Speculative participants: The balance of risks favors a moderately bullish bias, but with strong Russian exports and stable Black Sea cash prices, sustained rallies may require a clear weather or logistics shock. Options strategies that benefit from episodic volatility could be preferable to outright directional bets.

3‑Day Price Indication (Directional)

• Black Sea (Ukraine/Russia, 11–12.5% protein, FOB): Sideways to slightly firm in EUR, as strong Russian export flows meet steady demand and no major new weather threats.
• Euronext Paris (milling wheat, 11%): Mostly steady in EUR, tracking CBOT with a slight upside tilt if US weather headlines intensify, but capped by ample Black Sea competition.
• CBOT (US), EUR‑equivalent: Mildly supported by US production concerns and drought, but unlikely to decouple sharply from Black Sea and EU benchmarks over the next few days.