Indian Mustard Seed Prices Hold Firm as Heatwave Grips Key Markets

Indian mustard seed prices in New Delhi remain broadly steady in late May, with only marginal easing in export offers and no clear downside break despite intense heat across north India. Domestic mandi prices are clustered around INR 6,800–7,000 per quintal, indicating a balanced but slightly firm spot market. Spot and export indications for mustard seed from New Delhi show a mostly sideways pattern over the past three weeks, with only minor softening on FOB yellow types. Strong 2025–26 rapeseed-mustard production estimates and comfortable supplies are capping rallies, yet robust crushing demand, supported by attractive oil-oilseed spreads, is preventing any sharp correction. A severe heatwave across Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi is starting to affect arrivals and logistics, lending a short‑term floor to prices. For the next three days, mustard seed values in north Indian hubs are expected to stay range‑bound with a mildly firmer bias.

Prices & Spreads

Latest wholesale mandi data show average mustard prices around INR 6,914/qtl across India as of 22 May, with Delhi mandis such as Najafgarh recently reporting trades near INR 7,000/qtl on 18 May. This aligns with export and FCA offers from New Delhi, which have been broadly stable over the last two weeks when converted to EUR.

The mandi–FOB spread remains attractive for crushers and exporters, helped by a weak rupee and solid demand for mustard oil and meal in domestic and regional markets. Compared with early May, export differentials have narrowed slightly as internal prices have edged up while international benchmarks remain capped by abundant global oilseed supplies.

Supply, Crop & Weather Drivers

Fundamentally, the market is cushioned by another strong Indian rapeseed-mustard crop. Industry estimates from the Solvent Extractors’ Association peg 2025–26 output at about 11.94 million tonnes, up 3.5% from the previous season on higher acreage and better yields, with Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana leading gains. This reinforces the perception of comfortable domestic availability through the current marketing year.

However, the short‑term focus has shifted to extreme heat. The India Meteorological Department warns that a severe heatwave over northwest and central India, including Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Delhi, is likely to persist for at least the next 4–6 days, with maximum temperatures around 46–47°C. This is slowing daytime mandi arrivals, tightening labor and transport availability, and raising handling costs. While the standing mustard crop is already harvested, the heatwave is creating a temporary supply‑chain squeeze at market level, underpinning prices despite ample stocks.

Fundamentals & Demand

On the demand side, crushing margins remain reasonably healthy. Mustard oil continues to trade at a premium to competing soft oils in several domestic markets, encouraging steady crush rates. Broader oilseed fundamentals are benign: official data show a general uptrend in India’s oilseed output over recent years, and the latest estimates confirm rapeseed-mustard as a key driver of rabi oilseed growth.

Retail price benchmarks for mustard seed in major metros suggest a relatively stable consumer market, with recent indications in New Delhi and Mumbai pointing to mid‑teens INR/kg levels at retail, consistent with current wholesale and export structures when converted to EUR. Against this backdrop, speculative flows in agri futures are muted following past regulatory actions, which has reduced volatility and kept spot prices closely aligned with physical fundamentals.

3‑Day Outlook & Trading View

The ongoing heatwave across north India is expected to continue through at least 26 May, with IMD flagging persistent heatwave to severe heatwave conditions for Delhi and adjoining states. This should keep arrivals in key mustard markets thin and maintain a slightly firm tone in spot prices, even as underlying supply remains comfortable.

• Short‑term (3–5 days): Delhi and Rajasthan mandi prices likely to hold in a narrow, mildly upward‑tilting band, equivalent to roughly €750–810/t, as extreme heat constrains selling pressure.
• Crushers: Consider covering near‑term seed needs on dips within the current range; downside appears limited while heatwave‑related disruptions persist.
• Exporters: Maintain selective forward sales in yellow and high‑purity grades; FOB premiums may remain stable but upside is capped by abundant domestic supply and competitive pricing from other origins.
• Importers/overseas buyers: Current Indian offers in EUR remain competitive; gradual scale‑in buying is reasonable if looking to secure Q3 shipments.

🔭 Regional 3‑Day Price Indication (23–25 May, EUR)

Barring a sudden break in the heatwave or a sharp shift in global vegoil sentiment, mustard seed prices in India are expected to remain range‑bound with a modestly supportive bias into next week.