Stable Dried Guava Prices from Vietnam Amid Heatwave and Firm Fruit Exports

Dried guava FOB Hanoi prices are holding steady with no weekly change, as exporters benefit from firm overall fruit and vegetable demand while facing tightening weather-related risks in northern Vietnam. Vietnam’s broader fruit and vegetable exports continue to grow on strong Asian demand, especially from China, providing a supportive backdrop for niche products such as dried guava. Recent customs and ministry data show agro‑forestry‑fishery exports above EUR 21 billion equivalent in the first four months of 2026, with fruits and vegetables a standout growth segment. Extremely hot weather in Hanoi over the coming three days is becoming a short‑term operational challenge for processing and logistics, but has not yet translated into visible price moves. Exporters and buyers should treat current flat prices as a consolidation phase rather than a sign of weakening fundamentals.

Prices & Recent Moves

Spot indications for conventional dried white guava, origin Vietnam, FOB Hanoi, are assessed around EUR 4.80–4.90/kg, stable compared with mid‑May (flat week‑on‑week and roughly unchanged over the past three weeks after a marginal early‑May adjustment). The market is characterized by limited liquidity but firm offer ideas, with sellers in no rush to discount in the face of healthy fruit export sentiment overall.

At these levels, Vietnamese dried guava remains competitively priced versus other specialty dried tropical fruits exported from the region, such as dried mango and pineapple, which are also supported by robust demand in Asia and Europe. UN and trade analyses confirm that guava sits within a wider basket of dried and frozen tropical fruits (including mango, pineapple, coconut and longan) where value‑added processing has been expanding in Vietnam.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Vietnam’s overall fruit and vegetable exports remain a bright spot in 2026: sector export value reached more than EUR 1.9–2.0 billion equivalent in the first four months, up over 20% year‑on‑year, according to recent government and industry updates. China continues to absorb roughly half of Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports, with March alone seeing a sharp month‑on‑month rebound in shipments on recovering demand.

While dried guava is a small niche segment within this broader basket, export databases show steady international trade in dried guava under HS 0804 from Vietnam, with dozens of verified buyers across markets and regular shipments recorded up to late May 2026. Stronger processing demand for higher profile fruits (durian, mango, banana) is pulling drying capacity but has not yet squeezed guava supply enough to shift prices this week; instead, processors appear to balance lines between core and niche products.

Weather & Crop Conditions (VN Focus)

Hanoi and much of northern Vietnam are currently facing an intense heatwave. Over May 24–26, maximum temperatures in Hanoi are forecast at about 41–43°C, with nighttime lows near 29–30°C and continuous strong sunshine, raising heat‑stress risks for orchards and outdoor labor. Such conditions can accelerate fruit ripening and increase water stress where irrigation is limited, potentially impacting fresh guava quality and availability for drying if prolonged.

In the immediate three‑day window, the main impact is logistical and operational: high temperatures increase cooling costs in processing plants and complicate daytime loading, while also raising the risk of quality losses if fresh fruit is not rapidly pre‑cooled before drying or export—as highlighted in regional phytosanitary and quality guidelines for tropical fruits. For now, these are cost and risk factors rather than direct price drivers, but a persistent heat spell into June would tilt the balance bullish for dried guava.

Macro & Policy Context

Vietnam’s total trade value topped roughly EUR 365 billion equivalent by mid‑May, up more than 25% year‑on‑year, indicating broad export momentum. Within this, agro‑forestry‑fishery exports exceeded EUR 21 billion in the first four months of 2026, with fruits and vegetables up over 20% and identified by the agriculture ministry as a standout growth engine.

Longer‑term, national strategies aim to push fruit and vegetable exports toward EUR 9–10 billion annually, relying heavily on processed and higher‑value products. Guava, often grouped with mango in analyses of Asian tropical fruit exports, benefits from this shift to more processed, shelf‑stable formats that meet destination markets’ phytosanitary and quality standards. This structural push underpins medium‑term demand for dried guava even if short‑term price action is muted.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• For buyers: Current stable FOB Hanoi levels around EUR 4.80–4.90/kg offer a relatively low‑volatility entry point. Given the ongoing heatwave and firm regional fruit demand, consider locking in part of Q3 needs now, while keeping some volume flexible in case of any temporary supply‑driven spikes.
• For exporters/processors: With strong overall fruit export growth and intensified competition for drying capacity from higher‑margin fruits, maintain offer discipline rather than discounting. Prioritize quality control and rapid pre‑cooling in the current heat to preserve reputation and avoid claims, even at slightly higher operating costs.
• For traders: The near‑term directional bias is mildly bullish due to weather and broadly supportive export fundamentals, but liquidity is thin. Focus on basis and spread opportunities between dried guava and other dried tropical fruits where substitution is feasible for buyers.

3‑Day Price Direction (VN)

• Hanoi, FOB dried guava (EUR/kg): 4.80–4.90 today; expected to remain in the same range over the next 3 days, with a slight upward bias if heat‑related logistics issues intensify but no confirmed move yet.