Fresh Gur Floods UP Mandis While Refined Sugar Holds Firm

Fresh supplies of new-season gur in western Uttar Pradesh are pushing down jaggery-based sweetener prices, but refined sugar remains comparatively well supported as sellers resist deeper discounts at lower levels. The divergence highlights how localized supply gluts in traditional sweeteners can coexist with firmer sentiment in industrial sugar, both in India and in European FOB/FCA markets. Across North India’s sweetener complex, jaggery (gur), shakkar and khandsari are now bearing the brunt of fresh-crop cane flows, while sugar mills manage sales more cautiously. At the same time, global raw sugar futures are edging higher on supply concerns, and refined granulated sugar offers in Europe and the UK have stayed broadly stable in recent weeks. This combination leaves end-users facing more attractive pricing in the unrefined segment, but limited downside for refined sugar in the short term.

Prices

In western Uttar Pradesh, newly produced gur has triggered clear price erosion across key jaggery varieties. Gur Pedi has fallen by roughly ₹200–300 per quintal, now quoted around ₹5,700–5,800 per quintal, Chaku around ₹6,000–6,100, and Dhaiya approximately ₹5,900–6,000 per quintal. Khandsari has eased by around ₹100–150 to ₹6,100–6,150, while shakkar is seen near ₹6,000–6,200 per quintal.

By contrast, refined sugar is comparatively steady. Mill-delivery sugar in the region is reported around ₹4,500–4,650 per quintal, with spot sugar trading slightly higher at roughly ₹4,900–5,000 per quintal. Sellers remain reluctant to liquidate aggressively at these levels, which is preventing a parallel decline to that seen in jaggery products, despite localized pressure from new-crop cane.

European and UK refined prices corroborate this broadly stable refined sugar picture. Recent FCA quotations show granulated ICUMSA 45 sugar at EUR 0.65/kg in Berlin (DE), around EUR 0.58/kg for Czech and Danish-origin product loaded in Vyškov (CZ), and roughly EUR 0.52/kg for UK-origin ICUMSA 32–45 sugar in Norfolk (GB). These levels have been largely unchanged between mid and end-September 2026, indicating a sideways trend in regional wholesale pricing.

Supply & Demand

The immediate pressure point sits in western Uttar Pradesh, where the 2025–26 crushing season is bringing fresh gur output to market. As new jaggery batches reach local mandis, supply is temporarily outpacing spot demand, forcing down Pedi, Chaku, Dhaiya and khandsari prices. Demand in the traditional sweetener segment is relatively inelastic in the short run, so increased arrivals translate quickly into lower mandi quotes rather than volume expansion.

In refined sugar, the balance is more finely poised. Mills are not yet flooding the market with low-priced sugar, suggesting that on-farm cane availability and inventory cover are adequate but not burdensome. On the global side, raw sugar benchmarks have firmed in recent sessions on lingering supply concerns, lending a degree of underlying support to refined markets and reinforcing the reluctance of millers and European sellers to discount aggressively.

For European buyers, stable FCA prices around EUR 0.58–0.65/kg indicate that regional beet supply and refinery output are currently sufficient to meet demand without creating significant surplus. At the margin, this stability also means that arbitrage incentives between EU/UK physicals and world-market futures remain manageable, moderating import demand swings and keeping intra-European trade flows relatively predictable for Q4 2026.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals in the Indian traditional sweetener market are being driven primarily by harvest timing and processing choices rather than by demand shocks. Farmers in western Uttar Pradesh are channeling a portion of new cane into gur and khandsari units as the season opens, boosting supplies of these products. This is amplifying the price gap between value-added jaggery derivatives (shakkar, khandsari) and refined sugar at the mill and spot levels.

Weather conditions remain a key watchpoint. The start of the season has coincided with variable rainfall patterns across parts of Uttar Pradesh, which can temporarily disrupt crushing and transport, but current pricing indicates that supply to traditional units is more than sufficient. In the absence of severe weather that damages cane or disrupts logistics more broadly, the near-term fundamental bias for gur-related products remains towards ample availability and softer prices.

Globally, sugar fundamentals continue to be shaped by expectations for cane output in major exporters and by refined product demand in importing regions. The recent rise in international raw sugar benchmarks, coupled with stable to firm domestic beet and cane economics in Europe, suggests that the downside in refined sugar prices is limited without a clear positive shock to global production.

Trading & 3-Day Outlook

Trading outlook

• Indian jaggery/shakkar buyers: Use the current gur- and shakkar-led softness to cover short-term needs, but stagger purchases as further downward pressure is likely while fresh supplies continue to arrive.
• Indian sugar end-users: With mill-delivery sugar holding around ₹4,500–4,650 per quintal and sellers hesitant at lower levels, consider opportunistic buying on any brief dips rather than expecting a sustained price slide.
• European industrial users: FCA granulated sugar in the EUR 0.52–0.65/kg range has been broadly stable; locking in part of Q4 requirements at these levels can hedge against potential global raw sugar strength feeding into refined quotes.
• Producers and mills: For jaggery and khandsari units, monitor mandi inflows closely; moderating production pace or diversifying into refined sugar where feasible may help avoid deeper discounts as the season progresses.

3-day directional view

• Western Uttar Pradesh gur/jaggery: Mildly bearish. Continued new-season arrivals are likely to keep Pedi, Chaku, Dhaiya, shakkar and khandsari under pressure over the next 2–3 trading days.
• Indian refined sugar (mill & spot): Sideways to slightly firm. Seller resistance at current levels should cap near-term downside barring a policy or demand shock.
• European & UK refined sugar FCA (DE, CZ, GB): Largely sideways. Recent quotations around EUR 0.52–0.65/kg are expected to persist over the next three days, with any moves likely modest and following global futures rather than local fundamentals.