Fresh Maharashtra Crop Pressures Black Gram Prices as Supply Jumps
Black gram prices soften as fresh Latur–Udgir crop and a larger Indian harvest meet active Myanmar selling, pointing to further short-term downside.
Prices
New-crop black gram (urad) from the Latur–Udgir belt is quoted around EUR 86–87 per quintal (converted from about USD 93.13–94.19/q). FAQ-grade urad is near EUR 88/q, while higher-quality SQ has slipped to roughly EUR 95–96/q from earlier peaks. The market outlook signals room for another correction of about EUR 5/q from current levels as supplies build further.
Local mandi data from Latur around mid-September show black gram (urd beans, whole) modal levels just below recent highs but still above the fresh-crop quotes, underscoring a market in the early phase of a harvest-led downtrend.
Supply & Demand
Domestic production is estimated at 4.5–4.6 million tonnes, up sharply from 3.7–3.8 million tonnes last season. This near 20–25% year-on-year increase is the core bearish driver, effectively reversing last year’s supply tightness. Beyond Maharashtra, crops in Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka are also approaching harvest, promising a broad-based rise in arrivals in the coming weeks.
On the import side, Myanmar sellers have become more active, offering containers out of existing Chennai stocks and fresh export positions. This additional origin supply limits any near-term upside and provides Indian buyers with alternatives should domestic spot markets attempt to rally. Demand from dal millers and stockists is described as adequate but increasingly price-sensitive, with many buyers delaying large purchases in anticipation of lower post-harvest prices.
Fundamentals & External Drivers
The combination of higher Indian production and renewed Myanmar selling interest is loosening the overall balance. Government and mandi price data for Maharashtra through mid-September confirm that black gram remains below last year’s average levels, in line with the larger crop narrative.
Weather in key kharif-growing regions of Maharashtra and adjoining states has recently been broadly favourable for pod filling and harvest, with no major late-season damage reported. This reduces the risk of yield losses and supports the current production estimate, reinforcing expectations of continued comfortable supplies into the main marketing season.
Short-Term Outlook & Strategy
The market outlook points to another leg down of roughly EUR 5/q from current levels as arrivals from Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka gain momentum and Myanmar-origin offers continue. Price pressure is likely to be most visible on FAQ and mid-range qualities, while the premium on SQ may narrow further but should retain some support from export and high-end domestic demand.
- Millers / end-users: Consider staggered buying rather than front-loading coverage; use current levels mainly to cover very short-term needs, with scope to add on expected EUR 3–5/q dips.
- Farmers: Where storage is available, avoid panic selling at harvest; partial sales on arrival and gradual marketing may capture better prices once the main supply shock is absorbed.
- Traders / stockists: Be cautious about aggressive long positions at current levels; better risk–reward is likely after the next downward adjustment or via selective spreads favouring higher-quality lots.
3-Day Directional View (Key Indian Markets)
- Latur–Udgir (Maharashtra): Mildly negative bias; fresh-crop pressure and steady arrivals suggest a soft to slightly lower tone over the next 2–3 days.
- Other Maharashtra / Central India mandis: Largely stable to slightly weaker, tracking the Latur–Udgir reference and gradual expansion of harvest activity.
- Chennai port (imported Myanmar urad): Steady to marginally easier, with active seller interest likely capping any short-covering rallies.