Garlic Prices Hold Steady as Egypt’s Export Season Winds Down and India Enters Monsoon Lull

Garlic export prices in both Egypt and India are currently stable, with little week‑on‑week movement and no immediate weather or policy shock pointing to a sharp near‑term break-out. For the next few days, markets are likely to trade sideways in EUR terms, with modest firmness more probable in India than Egypt. Egyptian fresh garlic FOB values are broadly steady as the main March–July export window nears its seasonal close, while domestic markets digest strong 2026 output and robust export volumes earlier in the season. India’s domestic garlic prices remain firm but not spiking, with wholesale averages around the equivalent of EUR 0.42–0.45/kg in mid‑July and Delhi trading at a premium to the all‑India average. Dehydrated and powder supply from India continues to see consistent overseas demand, especially from the Middle East and EU, but without evidence of acute short‑term tightness.

Prices

FOB New Delhi prices for organic garlic powder and FOB Cairo prices for conventional fresh garlic are unchanged over recent weeks in USD terms, and thus also in EUR after FX conversion. Indian domestic mandi prices show a wide range but cluster around INR 40–45/kg nationally (roughly EUR 0.42–0.47/kg), with Delhi significantly higher at INR 80/kg (≈EUR 0.84/kg) as of 16 July 2026.

Global reference data suggest Egypt remains among the lower‑cost export origins for fresh garlic, while India is more competitive in value‑added dehydrated and powder forms for B2B buyers. In euro terms, export‑oriented prices implied by current market levels are roughly in line with early July, indicating a consolidating market rather than a trending one.

Supply & Demand

Egypt’s 2026 garlic campaign has been strong, supported by expanded planted area and favourable growing conditions earlier in the season, with exports supported by access to new markets and steady demand from the Gulf and Europe. As the export window tapers off in late July, more volume is likely to be channelled to regional markets, helping to cap FOB upside despite ongoing local food inflation pressures.

In India, garlic supply into mandis is transitioning through the monsoon period, which typically slows arrivals and can lend a mild bullish tone to prices. Recent domestic price data confirm firm but not extreme levels, indicating that current supply is adequate relative to demand. For garlic powder and other dehydrated forms, structural export demand from the Middle East, EU and Southeast Asia remains solid, supporting utilisation of processing capacity but without creating acute short‑term scarcity.

Weather & Short‑Term Risks (EG, IN)

Cairo and key production areas in Egypt face very hot, hazy conditions over 18–20 July, with daytime highs around 38–40°C and warm nights. Given that the main 2026 garlic harvest is largely complete and a significant volume already moved into storage or export channels, this heatwave is more a post‑harvest storage and handling concern than a yield risk. Careful ventilation is needed to avoid quality losses in stored bulbs.

New Delhi is experiencing typical monsoon‑season weather: warm to hot days, high humidity, and intermittent showers and thunderstorms over the next three days. These conditions can intermittently disrupt logistics and mandi activity and may support slightly firmer spot prices if heavy local rainfall slows farmer deliveries or short‑term loading at processing units. However, no major weather shock is signalled that would fundamentally alter the 2026 supply outlook.

Fundamentals & Market Structure

Egypt continues to consolidate its position as one of the top global garlic producers, benefiting from competitive labour and logistics into Mediterranean and Gulf markets. Exporters report that quality‑differentiated contracts—bigger bulb sizes and tailored packaging—are increasingly important drivers of realised FOB levels, with premiums available for high‑spec produce even in an overall stable price environment.

India’s garlic sector is more fragmented, with wide intra‑country price dispersion reflecting varietal differences and local demand. Fresh market firmness, combined with steady international orders for dehydrated garlic and powder, is underpinning processor margins and keeping export‑oriented quotes supported. Nonetheless, there is no clear evidence yet of speculative froth: price moves over the last week are incremental, not parabolic.

Trading Outlook (Next 3–7 Days)

• Fresh garlic, Egypt (FOB Cairo): Sideways bias in EUR, with a slight downward skew as the export season winds down and domestic and regional channels absorb remaining stocks. Buyers can negotiate modest discounts on larger, prompt‑shipment parcels.
• Garlic powder, India (FOB New Delhi): Mildly supportive tone as monsoon showers occasionally slow logistics and fresh arrivals, but no clear catalyst for a sharp rally. Short‑term contracts can be priced on a flat to slightly firmer basis.
• Basis & spreads: Expect the premium of processed (powder) over fresh to remain wide and stable, reflecting processing costs and strong structural demand from food manufacturers.
• FX & cost environment: Importers into EUR‑denominated markets should monitor INR and EGP volatility, but near‑term price risk is more about freight and handling than farm‑gate swings.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Egypt (EG), fresh garlic FOB Cairo: 18–20 July – prices expected to remain in a tight band around current levels in EUR terms, with a slight softening bias as the export window closes and heat accelerates stock clearance.
• India (IN), garlic powder FOB New Delhi: 18–20 July – stable to slightly firmer, supported by firm domestic fresh prices and normal monsoon‑related logistical friction, but capped by ample processing capacity.