GB pea prices hold firm as Ukrainian supply caps downside

In mid-March 2026, the European pea complex is trading in a remarkably narrow band, with UK-origin green and marrowfat peas edging only slightly lower while Black Sea and Polish yellow peas continue to provide a deep discount floor for feed and export users. Spot offers from London show green feed-type peas around €1.18/kg FOB and marrowfat types at roughly €1.54/kg FOB, following modest week‑on‑week softening after a stable February. In contrast, Ukrainian green peas ex‑Odesa are indicated near €0.41/kg FCA and yellow peas at about €0.32/kg, while Polish yellow peas trade around €0.37/kg FCA. This wide origin spread is consistent with broader pulses markets, where OECD-FAO and industry reports point to structurally comfortable global pea supplies after the post‑2021 correction and strong competition from Canada, Russia and Ukraine into key demand centres such as India and China. For GB buyers, current weather in key pea-growing regions is seasonally cool and unsettled but non-threatening, with showers and moderate temperatures expected around London and southern England over the coming three days, limiting new weather risk premia in prices. Against this backdrop, market sentiment is broadly neutral: UK and EU balance sheets are adequately supplied, freight conditions from the Black Sea remain workable, and India’s extended duty-free window for yellow pea imports into March 2026 continues to underpin background demand without (yet) triggering a price spike. With no immediate supply shock on the horizon and energy and feed grain benchmarks in the UK relatively calm, pea prices in GB are likely to remain rangebound in the very short term, with a slight downward bias if Ukrainian and Polish offers persist at current discounts.

📈 Prices & Market Snapshot

Current physical offers (converted to EUR)

FX assumption: 1 GBP ≈ 1.15 EUR; prices rounded. All prices per kg.

Origin	Location	Type	Purity	Terms	Last update	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. price (EUR/kg)	WoW change	Sentiment
GB	London	Green	–	FOB	14 Mar 2026	1.18	1.18	0.0%	Neutral
GB	London	Marrowfat	–	FOB	07 Mar 2026	1.54	1.57	-1.3%	Slightly Bearish
UA	Odesa	Green	98%	FCA	12 Mar 2026	0.41	0.41	0.0%	Neutral
UA	Odesa	Yellow	98%	FCA	12 Mar 2026	0.32	0.32	0.0%	Neutral
PL	Kiełczygłow	Yellow	98%	FCA	06 Mar 2026	0.37	0.42	-11.1%	Bearish

Key observations:

• GB green peas are trading at a ~3x premium to Black Sea yellow peas, reflecting quality and origin risk premia.
• GB marrowfat peas maintain a further ~30% premium over GB green peas, consistent with niche food and snack demand.
• Polish yellow peas have corrected sharply since late February, mirroring soft European pulses sentiment and ample regional supply.

🌍 Supply, Trade Flows & External Drivers

• Global supply backdrop: OECD‑FAO and specialist pulses analyses indicate that world pea supplies in 2024/25 and into 2025/26 are comfortable, with Canada, Russia and Ukraine all maintaining strong export capacity despite some regional weather issues.
• Ukraine’s role: Recent Ukrainian reports highlight a record 2025/26 pea crop but weaker exports in early season, leading to competitive pricing as exporters seek to clear stocks. Current FCA Odesa levels in the dataset are consistent with this pressure.
• India & China demand: India has extended its duty‑free window for yellow pea imports through March 2026, supporting global baseline demand. China, meanwhile, has maintained a 100% tariff on Canadian peas, redirecting trade flows towards Black Sea and EU origins, including Ukraine and Russia.
• UK & EU balance: Industry updates at end‑2025 describe EU/UK pea supply as sufficient, with food and feed sector demand keeping prices stable but not tight. This aligns with the flat week‑on‑week GB green pea indications in London.
• Macro & competing crops: UK feed wheat futures have been trading in a relatively narrow band around the mid‑£160s/t in recent weeks, signalling a broadly calm feed complex without major substitution shocks between cereals and pulses.
• Plant-based demand in the UK: The UK continues to show strong growth in plant‑based foods, with retail sales of plant‑based products nearly doubling between 2019 and 2023, supporting steady underlying demand for pea-derived ingredients over the medium term.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Sentiment

Fundamental drivers

• Stocks: Global pea stocks are not critically tight; OECD‑FAO data show prices easing from the 2021 peak towards more normalised levels by 2024, which continues to cap rallies.
• Acreage & production outlook: High pea returns over the last several seasons in Canada, Russia and Ukraine have encouraged continued seeding, while some EU areas rebalance area between peas, beans and cereals.
• Speculative activity: Most speculative interest remains concentrated in major grains and oilseeds; pulses, including peas, see limited managed‑money exposure, which tends to dampen volatility relative to wheat or soy.

Sentiment snapshot

• GB physical market: Neutral to slightly bearish. Stable green pea prices and a minor erosion in marrowfat values point to comfortable nearby supply and selective, but not urgent, demand.
• Continental Europe: Bearish tilt for yellow peas, with Polish offers easing on the back of soft internal demand and competition from cheaper Black Sea origins.
• Black Sea (Ukraine): Neutral. Prices are steady, but exporters face sluggish off‑take in some destinations; any new demand from India or China could tighten the balance quickly.

🌦 Weather Outlook (GB focus)

All weather-related price implications below are for the GB region, with London as proxy.

• Short-term forecast (15–18 March 2026): Public UK forecasts and local reports indicate a changeable but seasonally normal pattern over southern England and the London area: scattered showers, breezy conditions and daytime temperatures in the high single to low double digits (≈8–12°C), with limited frost risk.
• Impact on peas:
  • Moist but not saturated seedbeds should support spring drilling windows where soils are workable.
  • No major cold spell is expected, reducing concerns about early establishment or frost damage.
  • Given the stage of the season, this weather profile is broadly yield‑neutral and does not justify a weather premium in current GB pea prices.

📌 Trading Outlook & Price Bias (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Overall bias for GB peas: Sideways to slightly lower. Ample competition from Ukraine and Poland, plus benign GB weather, argue against a near‑term rally.
• Key upside risks:
  • Sudden import demand spike from India or China before the end‑March duty‑free window for yellow peas in India, tightening Black Sea availability.
  • Logistical disruption in the Black Sea corridor or material escalation of regional tensions, which could temporarily lift EU/UK origin premiums.
• Key downside risks:
  • Continued aggressive Ukrainian and Russian offers into MENA and EU markets, exerting pressure on continental and UK replacement values.
  • Further softness in UK feed grains and protein meals, eroding feed-sector willingness to pay up for peas.

🧭 Practical Trading Pointers

• GB growers (green and marrowfat peas):
  • Consider pricing a portion of 2025 crop on any modest rallies driven by currency or local basis, as global fundamentals suggest limited upside in the absence of a weather shock.
  • For marrowfat peas, maintain staggered sales; the premium is still historically attractive versus feed peas and is underpinned by snack and niche food demand.
• UK feed compounders:
  • Use Ukrainian and Polish yellow peas as benchmarks when negotiating domestic supply; the wide spread justifies a firm stance on GB origin premiums, particularly for feed-quality parcels.
  • Where logistics allow, explore partial coverage with imported peas to cap raw material costs, while monitoring any tightening signals from India/China demand.
• Traders & merchants:
  • Maintain a balanced book; volatility catalysts are currently limited, but geopolitical or freight developments could change the picture quickly.
  • Watch for opportunities to arbitrage quality spreads between GB marrowfats and cheaper continental/Black Sea green peas into premium snack markets.

📆 3‑Day Regional Price Forecast (GB)

Region: GB (London FOB indications as reference). All prices in EUR/kg.

Date	Product	Expected Range (EUR/kg)	Directional Bias	Comment
16 Mar 2026	GB green peas, FOB London	1.17 – 1.19	Stable	Benign weather, steady demand; no major new drivers.
17 Mar 2026	GB green peas, FOB London	1.16 – 1.18	Slightly lower	Competitive imported offers continue to cap upside.
18 Mar 2026	GB green peas, FOB London	1.16 – 1.18	Stable	Weather still non-threatening; market focus on trade flows.

Marrowfat peas in GB are expected to trade roughly in a 1.52–1.56 EUR/kg range over the same period, maintaining a firm premium but tracking any marginal moves in green pea values.