Georgia’s Apple Exports Surge on Russian Demand – But Risks Are Rising

Georgia’s apple sector is in a clear export upswing in early 2026, lifted by robust Russian demand and better prices per tonne. However, the market is now highly concentrated, leaving growers and traders increasingly exposed to any disruption in Russian trade or logistics. Georgia has achieved its strongest apple export performance in years, combining larger crops with higher unit values. Export volumes between August 2025 and June 2026 exceeded 24,000 tonnes, while shipments in January–June 2026 alone reached 14,700 tonnes worth US$11.2 million. At the same time, dried-apple prices in Europe remain broadly stable, suggesting that the main story is regional fresh-market strength into Russia rather than a global price spike.

Prices

Based on the reported trade figures for January–June 2026, Georgia’s average apple export return is approximately US$762 per tonne, indicating a firming price environment in its core markets. This is consistent with earlier data for the 2025/26 season, where higher average export prices were already visible.

In processed markets, dried apple offers in Northwest Europe (Chinese origin, FCA Dordrecht) are currently quoted around EUR 4.30–4.40/kg, with only marginal week-on-week changes. This points to a relatively balanced global dried-apple market, in contrast to the more dynamic fresh export segment driven by Russian demand.

Supply & Demand

Georgia exported 14,700 tonnes of apples between January and June 2026, generating US$11.2 million in export earnings. Compared with the same period in 2025, volumes increased by 37% (about 4,000 tonnes), while export value jumped by 67% (about US$4.5 million). This combination of stronger shipments and higher returns underscores both increased production availability and firmer demand.

From August 2025 to June 2026, total apple exports exceeded 24,000 tonnes, the highest level in recent years. The main driver is Russia, which absorbed more than 95% of Georgia’s apple exports in the first half of 2026. This deep concentration delivers scale and pricing power in one channel, but also means that any sudden change in Russian demand, sanitary rules or transport conditions would immediately hit Georgian growers and exporters.

Fundamentals & Risk Profile

The stronger rise in export value versus volume implies a notable improvement in average export prices and product mix. With an average value of roughly US$762 per tonne, Georgia’s apples are achieving better remuneration than in the previous season, reflecting both improved quality and the willingness of Russian buyers to pay more for reliable regional supply.

However, structural vulnerabilities are evident. The sector’s dependence on a single destination magnifies exposure to geopolitical tensions, currency swings, and potential import restrictions. Experience from other regional exporters shows how swiftly market access conditions can change, making diversification a strategic priority for Georgia’s apple industry over the medium term.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Strategy

In the near term, continued strong Russian demand and adequate Georgian supply suggest that fresh export prices are likely to remain supported. The record export volumes from August 2025 to June 2026 indicate that storage and logistics systems are functioning effectively, at least under current conditions.

• Sellers / Growers: Use the current high average export returns to lock in margins via forward contracts where possible, but avoid over-committing volumes to a single buyer or channel.
• Exporters: Prioritise quality control and cold-chain performance to sustain premium pricing in Russia, while actively prospecting alternative regional markets to gradually reduce destination risk.
• Buyers in Russia and neighbouring markets: Expect firm but not explosive price levels in the short term; consider diversifying origins to mitigate potential supply shocks from Georgia.

Over the next three trading days, fresh Georgian apple export indications into Russia are expected to stay firm in EUR terms, supported by tight regional competition and favourable recent pricing. Dried-apple prices in Northwest Europe are likely to remain broadly stable in a narrow EUR 4.30–4.40/kg band, with limited immediate upside or downside catalysts.