Georgia’s Potato Export Slump: Russia Pullback Exposes Market Risks

Georgia’s potato market has entered 2026 under heavy pressure as exports collapsed after an exceptionally strong 2025, driven largely by one-off Russian demand. The abrupt pullback of Russian imports has slashed volumes, narrowed Georgia’s export reach and exposed the risks of over‑reliance on a single buyer. After last year’s export boom, Georgia now faces a markedly weaker external position in potatoes. Export tonnage and revenue have plunged, with Russia’s reduced needs following a large domestic harvest removing the main growth engine. Azerbaijan and a few regional buyers have partly filled the gap, but not at sufficient scale, while Central Asian outlets have temporarily disappeared from the trade map. Against this backdrop, domestic production is also slightly lower, and processors in Europe report soft but stable starch prices in mid‑August 2026, suggesting generally comfortable regional supply. Georgia’s challenge is now less about physical scarcity and more about rebuilding diversified, resilient market access for its growers and traders.

Prices & Trade Flows

Georgia exported 18,414 tonnes of potatoes between January and June 2026, down 81.5% year-on-year. Export revenue dropped to USD 4.88 million from roughly USD 26.5 million over the same period of 2025, underscoring a sharp deterioration in average export earnings.

The core driver is Russia. Shipments to Russia fell from 50,347 tonnes worth USD 20.5 million in the first half of 2025 to only 3,422 tonnes valued at USD 1.4 million in early 2026, a 92.9% collapse in volume. Other destinations have not compensated sufficiently, leading to weaker utilisation of Georgia’s exportable surplus and higher dependence on domestic and regional demand.

Supply & Demand Balance

On the supply side, Georgia harvested 207,900 tonnes of potatoes in 2025, a 6.1% decline versus the previous year. While not dramatic, this contraction reduces the exportable balance somewhat, especially when combined with narrower market access.

Demand-side dynamics are more abrupt. Russia harvested a large domestic crop last year, sharply reducing its import requirements in early 2026 and crowding out Georgian supplies. This has left Georgia more exposed to domestic consumption and to a smaller set of external buyers, increasing competition among local sellers and likely capping farmgate price gains despite lower output.

Market Diversification & Regional Shifts

With Russian demand receding, Azerbaijan has become Georgia’s leading potato customer, importing 11,777 tonnes worth USD 2.2 million in the first half of 2026. Belarus ranked third with 2,126 tonnes and USD 942,000 in value, while Armenia and Qatar remained marginal outlets.

However, Georgia’s export footprint has narrowed considerably. No shipments were recorded to Kazakhstan, Moldova, Turkmenistan or Uzbekistan in early 2026, despite active trade with these markets in 2025. This contraction suggests logistical, commercial or pricing hurdles that need to be addressed if Georgia is to rebuild diversified channels across Central Asia and neighbouring states.

Processed Market Indicator: Potato Starch

Spot indications from Europe’s processed segment point to a broadly stable but soft price environment. In Poland, FCA Łódź offers for potato starch were recently around EUR 0.63/kg, unchanged versus late July but down from roughly EUR 0.66/kg in mid-July 2026, signalling modest easing in processed potato values.

These levels are consistent with a regionally well-supplied starch market, suggesting that while Georgia’s fresh export channel is under strain, broader European potato availability is not acutely tight. For Georgian producers, this reduces the likelihood of a strong price rally via processed demand spillovers in the near term, reinforcing the need for commercial rather than price-driven recovery strategies.

Short-Term Outlook & Weather Note

The steep export decline currently appears cyclical rather than structural. Russia’s reduced import needs stem mainly from a large domestic harvest, not from specific trade barriers against Georgian potatoes. As Russian stocks normalise, some recovery in demand is possible, though unlikely to match the extraordinary volumes of 2025.

Weather in the wider Black Sea region in mid-August 2026 is seasonally warm, with no widely reported extreme events threatening immediate potato supply. Barring unexpected late-season weather shocks, regional fundamentals should remain relatively balanced, keeping international price support moderate while Georgia works to re‑establish and diversify its export relationships.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Growers and exporters in Georgia: Prioritise contracts with Azerbaijan, Belarus and Armenia while actively prospecting for renewed sales into Kazakhstan and other Central Asian markets to reduce dependence on Russia.
• Importers in neighbouring markets: Leverage Georgia’s current export overhang and weaker bargaining position to secure competitive medium-term supply agreements, especially for the 2026/27 marketing window.
• Processors and traders in Europe: Use current soft starch prices (~EUR 0.63/kg FCA Poland) to lock in coverage, but avoid overcommitting, as any future tightening in Russian or regional supplies could gradually firm values.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)