Georgian Hazelnuts Ease Lower as Turkish FOB Holds Steady

Georgian hazelnut kernel prices have eased this week, with FCA Warsaw offers down around 0.2–0.8 EUR/kg from mid‑October, while Turkish FOB kernel values remain broadly stable. The market balances a smaller Georgian crop and orchard dieback concerns against strong Turkish export revenues and still‑cautious confectionery demand. Western Georgia’s 2026 harvest is running below longer‑term potential amid ongoing orchard dieback in Guria and Samegrelo, but the impact on export prices is muted by competition from well‑supplied Turkish shippers and earlier demand destruction after last year’s high prices. Türkiye’s Jan–Sep 2026 hazelnut exports show lower volumes but higher revenue, confirming that buyers are still price‑sensitive. For now, Georgian kernels are drifting slightly lower versus mid‑month, while Turkish conventional and organic quotations trade sideways within recent ranges.

Prices

Georgian origin hazelnut kernels FCA Warsaw softened on 28 October 2026 versus 20 October:

• GE hazelnut kernels 15+ FCA Warsaw: 9.8 EUR/kg (previous 10.0 EUR/kg).
• GE natural kernels 13–15 mm FCA Warsaw: 9.1 EUR/kg (previous 9.9 EUR/kg).
• GE natural kernels 11–13 mm FCA Warsaw: 8.15 EUR/kg (previous 8.2 EUR/kg).

Turkish conventional FOB Istanbul values are comparatively stable:

• TR natural kernels 11–13 mm FOB Istanbul: 7.002 EUR/kg (previous 7.005 EUR/kg, 26 October 2026).
• TR natural kernels 13–15 mm FOB Istanbul: 7.54 EUR/kg (previous 7.56 EUR/kg, 26 October 2026).
• TR roasted diced 2–4 mm FOB Istanbul: 6.85 EUR/kg (unchanged versus 19 October 2026).
• TR roasted meal FOB Istanbul: 6.2 EUR/kg (unchanged versus 19 October 2026).

Turkish organic offers FOB İzmir continue to command a substantial premium, with recent quotations for 11–13 mm, 13–15 mm and processed organic kernels in the high‑teens to low‑20s EUR/kg range, but with no fresh moves since 23–24 October 2026.

Supply & Demand

Georgia’s 2026 hazelnut crop is constrained by structural issues. Industry representatives warn that national output may fall below 40,000 tons of in‑shell hazelnuts, well under the 50,000–60,000 ton threshold considered necessary for Georgia to retain weight in export markets. This shortfall combines with persistent orchard dieback in Guria and Samegrelo, where an unidentified disease is killing trees and curbing yields.

Despite these constraints, Georgian export prices remain under pressure from dominant Turkish supply. Recent analysis shows Türkiye’s hazelnut exports between January and September 2026 reached roughly 152,500 tons but earned about 1.9 billion USD, a 19% drop in volume but around 20% rise in export revenue versus last year, reflecting higher unit values. Traders also report that Turkish new‑crop exports in September grew strongly year‑on‑year, signalling that international buyers are well covered and selectively restocking.

Georgia therefore competes into a demand environment shaped by last year’s high prices, which already suppressed some consumer and industrial usage. Georgian sector sources note that export prices this autumn are materially below last season’s peaks, with current offers around the equivalent of several euros per kilogram lower at the wholesale level than last year’s 11–14 EUR/kg range cited for Georgian exports. This softer demand tone is helping cap the upside from Georgia’s tighter physical supply.

Weather & Crop Conditions – Western Georgia (GE)

Hazelnut production in Georgia is concentrated in western regions such as Samegrelo‑Zemo Svaneti and Guria. These low‑altitude, humid Black Sea areas are also where orchard dieback and disease pressure have been most acute, exacerbating yield losses already reported by local growers. For the closing phase of the 2026 harvest, near‑term weather has limited impact on volumes, but it remains relevant for post‑harvest drying, storage and disease dynamics in orchards.

Short‑term forecasts for western Georgia over the coming days (29–31 October 2026) point to relatively mild autumn conditions with intermittent rain showers and moderate daytime temperatures. This pattern is broadly neutral for already‑harvested nuts but can complicate on‑farm drying where infrastructure is weak, potentially increasing moisture and mould risks in smaller operations. Commercial exporters relying on mechanical drying and controlled storage should be able to manage quality, yet they will continue watching for any further spread of orchard diseases into 2027 production.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Tight but orderly supply: Global hazelnut supplies are constrained versus earlier years, with structural issues in Georgia and lower Turkish yields underpinning a fundamentally tighter market into 2026. Institutional outlooks earlier this year projected constrained availability through at least 2025–26, largely due to Turkey’s yield issues and Georgia’s quality challenges.
• Turkey’s price leadership: Türkiye’s export revenues rising despite lower volumes indicate firmer average export prices, helping to set the global floor. State buyer TMO’s higher intervention prices announced ahead of the 2026/27 season continue to support Turkish farmgate levels and curb downside for FOB kernels.
• Georgia’s competitiveness challenge: Georgian exporters face squeezed margins: input and processing costs are elevated, harvest volumes are below historical norms, yet international buyers benchmark against Turkish FOB offers that remain relatively stable. Local analysts highlight that to stay relevant, Georgia must scale exports back toward 50,000–60,000 tons and improve quality, but dieback and under‑investment are slowing progress.
• Quality and food‑safety focus: The EU’s continued monitoring of aflatoxin and other contaminants in hazelnut shipments, including regular RASFF notifications for Turkish origin, keeps quality management at the forefront for all origins. Buyers may reward consistent high‑quality Georgian kernels with small premiums, but any quality issues will quickly shift demand back toward established Turkish suppliers.

Trading Outlook

• Short‑term (next 1–3 weeks): With Georgian FCA Warsaw offers having already adjusted lower and Turkish FOB values broadly flat, further significant downside in near‑term prices looks limited unless macro demand weakens sharply. A sideways to slightly soft bias is likely for standard kernels.
• Buyers (EU roasters, confectioners): Consider layering in coverage on Georgian 13–15 mm and 15+ kernels around current FCA levels, particularly for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 needs, while keeping flexibility to switch to Turkish origin if quality or logistics concerns arise. Premium organic Turkish kernels may be booked selectively on dips, given the persistent structural tightness.
• Georgian sellers: In view of competition from Turkish FOB and ongoing uncertainty around future orchard health, aggressive holding out for substantially higher prices carries risk. Structured sales programs tied to key destination demand hubs (e.g. Poland, Germany, Italy) could help manage price and volume risk while maintaining customer relationships.
• Turkish exporters: With TMO support and strong export revenues, current FOB kernel prices appear sustainable. However, a watchful stance on EU consumer demand and chocolate sector margins is recommended before committing to large, long‑dated discounts.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• Georgia → EU (FCA Warsaw, GE origin kernels): Prices are expected to trade broadly sideways over the next three days, with only minor adjustments possible as exporters finalize late‑October shipments.
• Türkiye FOB Istanbul (conventional kernels): Market likely to remain stable, anchored by TMO policy and active export programs, with limited scope for short‑term price weakness.
• Türkiye FOB İzmir (organic kernels): No immediate catalysts for price moves; quotations are expected to hold in current ranges as niche demand remains steady.