Georgian Hazelnuts Squeezed Between Weather Damage and Cheaper Turkish Offers

Georgia’s hazelnut sector enters the 2026/27 season with sharply lower exportable volumes and serious quality issues, just as weaker Turkish prices weigh on the wider Black Sea market. Exporters are prioritising kernel quality and EU specifications over volume, suggesting tight availability of top-grade Georgian kernels even while regional price pressure persists. Prolonged summer rainfall and brown marmorated stink bug damage have cut Georgian production, driven kernel recovery below normal levels and forced more nuts into the domestic channel. At the same time, expectations of a recovering Turkish crop and ongoing price competition from the world’s dominant supplier limit how far Georgian sellers can raise offers, despite their own supply squeeze. For confectionery and industrial buyers, this means attractive Turkish prices but constrained choices for premium Georgian-origin kernels in 2026/27.

Prices

Current indications highlight a clear discount for Turkish origin versus Georgian kernels, reflecting Turkey’s dominant role and softer international quotations, even as both origins struggle with quality:

Conventional Georgian kernel prices have eased compared with mid-October but remain at a premium over Turkish FOB offers, consistent with the tighter exportable supply and focus on higher-grade product. Organic Turkish kernels continue to trade at a substantial premium to conventional lots, with recent indications around 18.3–19.3 EUR/kg FOB Izmir for organic 13–15 mm and 11–13 mm kernels, broadly stable over October.

Supply & Demand

Georgia’s 2026 hazelnut harvest is clearly weaker than last year. Industry data indicate 2025 production of roughly 49,300 tonnes, while the 2026 crop is now forecast to fall below 40,000 tonnes. That implies a decline of at least 18–20% year-on-year. Heavy August rainfall and pest pressure are the main drivers of this shortfall, and both volume and kernel quality are affected.

Kernel recovery has deteriorated sharply in some producing zones, dropping below 30% in certain orchards. This not only reduces the quantity of kernels available but also undermines the economics of processing lower-quality in-shell material. Geo-Nuts, one of the country’s notable processors and exporters, expects its own export volume to decline by around 20% in 2026, in line with the broader industry trend. The Georgian Hazelnut Producers’ Association sees total kernel exports this season at just 10,000–12,000 tonnes, compared with about 18,500 tonnes shipped during the 2025/26 marketing year.

Demand-side fundamentals remain dominated by the European Union, which absorbs the bulk of Georgian exports. In 2025/26, approximately 12,500 tonnes went to EU destinations such as Italy, Spain, Germany, France, Greece, the Czech Republic and Poland. This concentration raises the stakes for meeting strict EU quality requirements in a year of weather and pest stress. At the same time, large global industrial users – notably Ferrero, which consumes roughly a quarter of world hazelnut output – continue to underpin structural demand even as they adapt buying strategies to quality and price spreads between origins.

Fundamentals & Quality

Excessive summer rainfall across western Georgia has been the central fundamental story of the 2026 crop. Persistent wet conditions limited the effectiveness of pesticide applications against the brown marmorated stink bug and created unfavourable drying conditions after harvest. As a result, many lots exhibit higher defect rates, including damage linked to the pest and moisture-related problems, leaving fewer kernels that can satisfy demanding EU confectionery specifications.

Exporters are responding by clearly prioritising quality over volume. Geo-Nuts and other processors have stated that kernels failing international specifications will be diverted to the domestic market rather than exported. This strategy aims to protect long-term relationships with high-end customers, including Ferrero and European industrial buyers, even if it means accepting a sharp, one-season drop in export tonnage. The shift also suggests a widening quality and price gap between top-grade Georgian kernels and lower-grade regional material.

Turkey, meanwhile, remains the decisive influence on global pricing. Market participants report that despite similar weather and pest challenges in Turkish orchards this season, expectations of a recovering overall crop have pressured international price benchmarks. At the same time, industry commentary points to significant quality dispersion within Turkey, with increased stink bug damage and empty nuts in some coastal and interior zones. For buyers, this means more careful origin and lot selection, as attractive offers may mask elevated quality risk.

Weather & Pest Outlook

The immediate 2026 harvest window in both Georgia and Turkey is largely complete, with orchards gradually moving into dormancy along the Black Sea coast. For the remainder of the season, weather risk now shifts from yield to storage and logistics. Periods of elevated humidity in coastal regions could still aggravate mold issues in improperly dried or stored nuts, reinforcing the premium on professionally dried and well-stored lots.

Structurally, the brown marmorated stink bug remains a key medium-term threat in the Black Sea hazelnut belt. Historical experience in both Georgia and Turkey shows this pest can inflict significant economic damage if control efforts are insufficient or disrupted by wet weather. Unless integrated pest management programmes are scaled up and better aligned with changing climatic patterns, producers may face continued volatility in kernel quality and recovery over coming seasons.

Market & Trading Outlook

In the near term, the global hazelnut market is balancing weak Georgian supply and quality constraints against relatively softer Turkish prices and pockets of demand caution among industrial buyers. Recent sector reports highlight that while confectionery demand is structurally solid, some large users have moderated purchases in response to earlier price increases and broader consumer headwinds. This creates a two-speed market: strong competition and tighter spreads for top-grade kernels, and more subdued interest in mid- and lower-grade material.

For Georgia specifically, the 2026/27 season will likely be defined by a significant drop in export volumes despite healthy international demand for quality kernels. With total exports expected at only 10,000–12,000 tonnes of kernels, compared with 18,500 tonnes last season, exporters’ ability to capitalise on price rallies will be constrained by physical availability and strict grading. At the same time, continued downward pressure from Turkish quotations limits upside for Georgian FCA prices, particularly in standard sizes.

Trading Recommendations

• EU industrial buyers: Secure Georgian-origin contracts early for critical premium applications where flavour and traceability are key, focusing on suppliers with strong drying and quality control. Use Turkish origin for more price-sensitive or flexible-spec uses.
• Importers & traders: Monitor the evolving spread between Georgian FCA and Turkish FOB kernels; consider holding limited stocks of top-grade Georgian kernels, but avoid overextending positions in lower-grade lots given quality risks and competitive Turkish pricing.
• Georgian processors: Continue strict segregation of quality, channelling sub-spec kernels to domestic outlets and protecting long-term EU relationships. Explore value-added formats (roasted, diced) for high-quality fractions to offset volume losses.

3-Day Regional Price Indication

• Georgia, FCA Warschau: Hazelnut kernels 11–15+ mm expected to trade broadly sideways over the next three days around current indications (8.15–9.8 EUR/kg), with limited downside given tight exportable volumes but capped upside due to Turkish competition.
• Turkey, FOB Istanbul/Izmir: Conventional kernels 11–15 mm likely to remain under mild downward-to-sideways pressure near recent levels around 7.00–7.54 EUR/kg, as market digests crop quality issues alongside still-cautious industrial buying.
• Turkey, organic FOB Izmir: Organic kernels expected to hold steady at prevailing premiums (roughly 18.3–19.3 EUR/kg for natural kernels, over 22 EUR/kg for blanched/roasted forms), supported by limited certified supply and stable niche demand.