Hazelnuts: Turkish Exports Revive While Prices Stay Surprisingly Steady

Turkish hazelnut exports are showing the first real signs of recovery, but raw material and kernel prices remain broadly stable as state buying and cautious industrial demand balance the market. Short-term, good natural kernels carry moderate upside risk, while processed products and weaker qualities stay under pressure. After a weak start into the season, the Turkish hazelnut market is entering early November in a phase of cautious stabilization. Weekly exports above 8,800 tonnes signal that international demand is returning at current price levels, even though volumes still fall short of former peak-season norms. At the same time, the state agency TMO has absorbed a sizeable share of the crop, logistics into the EU have become noticeably slower, and alternative origins such as Georgia and Azerbaijan are regaining price competitiveness. For European buyers, the current window still offers opportunities for partial cover, but logistics buffers and quality selection are becoming as important as price.

Prices

European offers for Turkish hazelnut products DAP Central Europe eased slightly last week, particularly for roasted kernels and paste. Indicative full-truck offers show:

Performance data for raw 11–13 mm kernels DDP Central Europe show a flat week-on-week move, but significant declines versus spring and last year (−16.84% over six months, −83.55% over 12 months; the latter should be mathematically checked before operational use). Over a three- and five-year horizon prices remain moderately higher, underlining how exceptional last year’s spike was.

FOB Istanbul indications from current offers confirm this soft but broadly stable tone. Conventional Turkish natural kernels 13–15 mm are quoted at 7.523 EUR/kg FOB, with 11–13 mm at 6.986 EUR/kg, both edging slightly lower versus late October. Roasted diced 2–4 mm kernels stand at 6.8 EUR/kg FOB, unchanged on the week, while roasted meal holds at 6.2 EUR/kg FOB. Georgian kernels FCA Warsaw remain at a clear premium, with 13–15 mm around 9.1 EUR/kg and 11–13 mm at 8.15 EUR/kg, reflecting ongoing quality and cost differences.

Supply & Demand

Weekly Turkish exports above 8,800 tonnes mark the highest volume seen this year and are comparable only to strong weeks in 2024. This rebound is an important signal that international buyers are more willing to commit at today’s price levels, even if overall demand remains noticeably below historic norms. Exporters report that a part of earlier contractual obligations is physically covered, which limits urgent selling pressure despite still-ample stocks.

On the supply side, raw material flows into the free market are seasonally declining. Crucially, TMO has already purchased more than 130,000 tonnes of in-shell hazelnuts at a state price of 250 TRY/kg, well above free-market levels. This stock represents a sizeable volume that is not immediately available to exporters and could tighten availability of high-quality natural kernels later in the season, depending on the agency’s release strategy.

The largest industrial buyer remains the key wild card. Market observers point to an agreed purchase program of 45,000 tonnes in-shell for Q4 and note that its traditional suppliers continue to buy raw material. This is widely interpreted as preparation for a further buying round. However, purchasing so far has been measured rather than aggressive, signalling a desire to avoid triggering a rapid raw material price spike.

Outside Turkey, Georgia’s export demand to Europe has been weak due to an unfavourable price–quality relationship at the start of the season. Weak sales are now exerting downward pressure on Georgian farmgate prices, slowly restoring competitiveness, particularly for mid-range qualities. Azerbaijan, in contrast, reports somewhat better sales and maintains firmer prices, supported by consistently high quality and a stronger focus on premium natural kernels.

Fundamentals & Market Balance

The striking feature of the current market is that stronger exports have not yet translated into higher raw material prices. This reflects a fragile but effective balance: on one side, global demand is still subdued and buyers are price-sensitive; on the other, the physical inflow of fresh crop into free channels is slowing, and TMO plus industrial players are steadily absorbing volume.

Quality remains a structural concern for the 2026 crop. A share of the harvest does not meet the specifications required for top-grade natural kernels, increasing sorting costs and reducing effective supply of prime qualities. This raises the likelihood that good, low-defect kernels could tighten, even if headline crop and carry-over figures appear comfortable. Reports from commercial sources also highlight that kernel recovery rates are sometimes disappointing, which further limits the volume of saleable kernels derived from each tonne of in-shell product.

Financing conditions remain restrictive, limiting exporters’ appetite for speculative stock-building. Combined with intense competition from alternative origins – including Chile, China, the USA and the Caucasus – this caps the industry’s ability to fully pass any raw material increases through to kernel and paste prices. A stable TRY/EUR exchange rate in recent weeks additionally helps keep export offers predictable and reduces the urgency of currency-driven price adjustments.

Weather & Logistics

Near-term weather in the Turkish Black Sea hazelnut belt is seasonally cool and increasingly wet, but major harvest operations are largely completed, limiting direct production risk. The main operational bottleneck is logistics: truck transit times from Turkey into the EU via Bulgaria have stretched from typical 8–10 days to as much as 20 days.

For European importers and processors this delay is a critical risk factor. Even when volumes are contracted and available, deliveries can arrive significantly later than scheduled, creating vulnerabilities for just-in-time production and low inventory strategies. As a result, EU-based spot stocks gain relative value versus direct Turkish shipments, and buyers are well advised to integrate longer lead times and contingency buffers into their planning.

Outlook & Trading Recommendations

Overall, the market is in a cautiously stable phase. Sideways to slightly firmer price action for clean, natural kernels appears the most plausible scenario for the short term. A sharper upward move would likely require a combination of heavier buying by the market leader, continued TMO stock retention and clearer evidence of shortfalls in top-quality output.

• Industrial buyers (Europe): Use current stability for staggered partial cover in high-quality natural kernels, especially 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm, while paying close attention to specification and defect levels.
• Roasted & paste users: Benefit from the recent softening in roasted whole kernels and paste by extending coverage selectively into early 2027, but avoid overcommitting until demand signals post-winter are clearer.
• Importers & traders: Prioritise logistics risk management: increase lead times, diversify routes and consider holding some EU-based buffer stocks, particularly for time-critical customers.
• Alternative origin buyers: Monitor Georgian and Azerbaijani offers closely; Georgia may offer tactical opportunities if recent price adjustments align with quality, while Azerbaijan remains a key source for premium kernels.

Three near-term variables will dominate sentiment: the final Turkish crop assessment (especially usable, good-quality volume), the actual scale and pace of the market leader’s Q4 and Q1 purchases, and the strength of international demand as seasonal chocolate and confectionery production peaks.

3-Day Directional Price Indication

• FOB Istanbul, Turkish natural kernels (11–13 mm, 13–15 mm): Stable to slightly firmer bias; small upward risk on top qualities if further industrial buying emerges.
• DAP Central Europe, roasted kernels & paste: Largely stable after recent easing; downside limited by higher processing and sorting costs.
• FCA Poland, Georgian kernels: Slightly softer tone as Georgian offers become more competitive, but still at a premium to Turkish levels for comparable sizes.