German Corn Prices Steady as Drought‑Hit EU Crop Tightens Balance

German feed corn prices in northern Germany are holding broadly steady around EUR 0.295/kg EXW despite a drought‑reduced EU crop and constrained Black Sea exports. The market is finely balanced between lower European production and comfortable global supplies, keeping a sideways tone for now. In recent sessions, German cash indications near Lower Saxony have traded in a narrow range around EUR 295/t, mirroring stable regional feed grain markets. European weather‑related yield losses, especially in France and parts of Germany, are tightening the continental balance sheet, but global corn availability and lukewarm export demand are preventing an outright price spike. With mostly dry weather aiding logistics and harvest progress, buyers see no urgent need to chase the market, while sellers with storage prefer to hold, expecting at least flat to slightly firmer values into late September.

Prices

German feed corn (EXW, northwest Germany) is indicated around EUR 295/t (EUR 0.295/kg), virtually unchanged week on week and in line with broader German cash assessments for mid‑September 2026. Recent commentary confirms a sideways pattern, with only marginal day‑to‑day moves despite tighter EU fundamentals.

Export benchmarks continue to frame the domestic market. French maize values around Paris in the high‑EUR 170s to low‑180s per tonne and discounted Ukrainian Black Sea corn in the mid‑EUR 160s equivalent underpin German prices while limiting upside. Compared with other feed grains, German feed wheat around EUR 200–205/t supports corn’s relative value in rations and helps maintain current premiums.

Supply & Demand

European corn supply for 2026 is being squeezed by summer heat and drought, with multiple analyses pointing to significant cereal production losses versus 2025, particularly in France and Germany. Regional farm reports from northern France describe sharply lower yields on irrigated and non‑irrigated crops, reinforcing expectations of a smaller EU maize crop and stronger intra‑EU trade flows into deficit regions, including parts of Germany.

On the import side, Ukraine remains a key supplier but faces ongoing logistical disruption and higher risk premiums due to repeated attacks on Odesa‑area export infrastructure, which have already reduced maize shipments to the EU. Black Sea constraints, together with EU policy‑related limits on Ukrainian grain access, are keeping continental corn balances tighter than they would be under normal trade conditions, helping to put a floor under German prices.

Weather & Harvest Conditions (Germany, DE)

Weather in northern Germany over the next three days is forecast to remain mostly dry to partly cloudy, with light winds and near‑seasonal temperatures, providing favourable conditions for late‑season fieldwork, logistics and grain drying. After a summer marked by heat and moisture deficits that trimmed cereal yields, current stable conditions reduce additional stress on remaining standing corn and support efficient harvest operations, but they do not materially change overall production prospects.

In practice, this means limited new harvest pressure on prices: farmers are able to pace sales as on‑farm drying costs stay moderate, while buyers can secure coverage without weather‑related logistics disruptions. Absent a sudden shift to heavy rain or early frost, weather in the coming days is neutral to slightly supportive for maintaining current price levels in Lower Saxony and surrounding regions.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• EU crop shortfall: Heat and drought have cut 2026 European cereal output versus last year, with France and Germany accounting for most of the losses, tightening the regional feed grain balance and underpinning corn prices.
• Black Sea risks: Continued security threats around Odesa ports and lower Ukrainian export volumes reduce cheap corn availability into the EU, forcing more reliance on intra‑EU flows and alternative origins such as the US.
• Competing grains: German feed wheat prices rebounding to about EUR 200–205/t lend relative support to corn in compound feed formulas, limiting downside even as global corn stocks remain comfortable.
• Futures structure: Nearby international corn futures in euro terms show a modest carry into later contracts, signalling neither acute shortage nor strong bearish sentiment, and reinforcing today’s range‑bound tone.

Trading Outlook (Germany, DE)

• For buyers (feed mills, livestock integrators): Consider maintaining only moderate spot coverage at current levels around EUR 295/t, while using any brief dips from local harvest selling to extend coverage into Q4. Downside appears limited as long as Black Sea logistics remain fragile.
• For farmers and sellers: With prices holding firm in a tight EU balance, growers with storage may benefit from staged sales rather than aggressive harvest selling, targeting small price improvements toward late September if export news does not ease. Risk management via incremental forward sales is advisable to protect against any global price softness.
• For traders: The current structure favours relative value strategies: maintaining a long bias in German physical corn against cheaper Black Sea and possibly US origins, while closely tracking any de‑escalation or further disruption in Black Sea export routes.

3‑Day Price Indication – Germany (DE)

• Feed corn, EXW northern Germany: Bias stable to slightly firm around EUR 290–300/t over the next three days, assuming continued calm weather and no major change in Black Sea export news.
• Basis vs. French and Ukrainian origins: Differential likely to remain broadly unchanged, with German values maintaining a premium to Ukrainian offers and trading close to French maize benchmarks.