German Feed Barley Firms on Weather and Black Sea Risk

German feed barley prices are edging higher, supported by tightening regional balances and renewed Black Sea risk, while Ukrainian values soften on export bottlenecks. Near‑term, EU supply looks comfortable, but logistics and weather keep a modest risk premium in German bids. The German harvest is progressing under mostly favourable but locally showery conditions, with good yields but some pressure on quality in wetter areas. At the same time, repeated Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure around Odesa have disrupted Black Sea grain flows and weighed on local origination prices, even as global buyers reassess risk exposure to the region.  In this context, German ex‑farm/feed barley is trading at a premium to Ukrainian CPT/FOB values, and the short‑term bias for Germany remains slightly upward while Ukraine stays capped by export uncertainty.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR/mt (1 EUR = 1.10 USD assumed where needed).

Supply & Demand

EU barley production in 2025/26 is projected around 55–56 mn mt, up notably on the previous season, leaving overall EU supply comfortable despite slightly lower harvested area. Ending stocks are forecast to rise modestly, indicating no structural tightness at the EU level. Feed use is expected to increase with competitive barley prices against other grains.      

For Ukraine, analysts had expected relatively stable barley export volumes, but repeated Russian drone and missile attacks on Odesa port and other Black Sea infrastructure in July have sharply disrupted logistics and reduced storage capacity, leading many shipowners to avoid the area. This has effectively cut port demand and left more barley trapped inland, pressuring Ukrainian CPT/FOB prices while adding some risk premium to EU origins. 

Weather & Harvest Conditions (Germany focus)

Over the next three days (1–3 August), key barley regions in northern Germany, including Lower Saxony near Drentwede, are forecast to see mixed cloud, scattered showers and moderate temperatures mostly between 18–23 °C. Rainfall is expected to be light to moderate, with some dry windows each day suitable for continued fieldwork.

These conditions are broadly favourable for yield formation in later fields, though intermittent showers may slow harvesting and increase drying needs. No acute heat or drought stress is indicated in the short term, limiting immediate weather-driven upside in German prices but also preventing any harvest-related bearish surprise. 

Fundamentals & Trade Flows

• EU balance: Higher 2025/26 EU output and slightly stronger feed demand leave the bloc in a comfortable exportable position, with projected exports above 7 mn mt and modest stock rebuilding.
• Ukrainian exports: Prior to the latest attacks, Black Sea barley was price‑competitive; port disruptions now limit execution more than theoretical availability, widening the spread to German ex‑farm values.
• Competition in feed rations: Barley remains competitively priced versus EU feed wheat and maize in northern Germany, supporting inclusion rates in compound feed and underpinning local demand.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• German producers: With ex‑farm Drentwede near 214 EUR/mt and a mild upward trend, consider forward-selling an incremental portion of 2026 crop on any further 3–5 EUR/mt rally, while keeping some volume open in case Black Sea risk escalates.
• Feed buyers in Germany: Near-term coverage at current levels appears prudent given the premium to Ukraine but ongoing logistical risk; extend cover into early autumn on dips, especially if weather improves and harvest pressure briefly intensifies.
• Importers in EU & MENA: Monitor Ukrainian FOB/Odesa offers closely; current discounted levels are attractive but execution and shipping risk remain elevated, suggesting a diversified origin strategy (Germany/France plus limited Ukraine exposure).

3-Day Price Direction (1–3 August, indicative)

• Germany, Drentwede EXW feed barley: Slightly firmer bias (+1–3 EUR/mt) as harvest pressure eases and Black Sea risk persists.
• Ukraine, Kyiv FCA feed barley: Largely stable (0 to -2 EUR/mt) amid weak port demand but already low farmgate bids.
• Ukraine, Odesa CPT/FOB barley: Mild downside or flat (0 to -3 EUR/mt) with logistics constraints and cautious international buying.