German Feed Barley Steady as Tight Forage Supply Supports Prices

German feed barley prices are holding firm, with local EXW levels in Lower Saxony unchanged in recent days and still trading at a clear premium over Ukrainian origins. Tight domestic forage availability after a drought‑hit 2026 harvest and resilient feed demand are underpinning the market, while Black Sea barley remains competitively priced but logistically constrained. Following a weather‑stressed growing season, Germany’s 2026 grain harvest came in well below last year, with national authorities speaking of a harvest crisis and warning of feed shortages in parts of the country. At the same time, regional advisory bodies in northern Germany report comparatively robust barley price assessments for September, confirming a firm tone in feed grain markets. EU reference data also show German feed barley prices in southern and central regions trending higher month‑on‑month. Against this backdrop, German buyers are balancing high domestic forage costs against attractively priced Ukrainian barley, though security and logistics risks around Black Sea and inland routes continue to cap inflows.

Prices

Current German feed barley seeds EXW Drentwede (Lower Saxony) are quoted at 0.227 EUR/kg EXW, unchanged versus 20 September and broadly flat since mid‑month, signaling a consolidation after the early‑September uptick.

Indicative regional assessments from the Chamber of Agriculture of Lower Saxony point to September feed barley levels in the mid to upper range of recent months, consistent with a firm local market for forage cereals.  

EU cereal price monitoring shows German feed barley benchmarks in Munich and Würzburg posting solid gains versus August, with southern German quotations in September reported around the high‑100s EUR/tonne, up low‑ to mid‑single digits month on month.

In contrast, Ukrainian barley offers remain significantly cheaper: feed‑grade barley seeds ex Kyiv and Odesa on FCA/FOB/CPT terms are indicated between 0.129–0.16 EUR/kg, with seaborne cattle‑feed barley FOB Odesa recently reduced from previous levels.

Supply & Demand

The German federal harvest report for 2026 confirms a markedly weaker grain season overall, with total cereal output down more than 7% year on year and yields well below 2025 after a dry spring and hot summer. Barley, as Germany’s second‑largest cereal, has not escaped the cuts, tightening the domestic feed grain balance.

Preliminary national statistics indicate that Germany harvested around 10.9 million tonnes of barley in 2026, reinforcing the crop’s key role in feed rations and highlighting sensitivity to any further weather or logistical disruptions. In southern Germany, authorities explicitly warn of significant forage deficits, which are likely to maintain strong on‑farm demand for competitively priced feed barley.

On the import side, Ukraine remains the main low‑cost supplier of feed barley to the EU, but overall EU barley imports from Ukraine have been trending modest and highly dependent on logistics and security conditions in the Black Sea and Danube corridors. Recent escalations in the wider region and ongoing infrastructure constraints are keeping effective import capacity below potential, limiting the pressure Ukrainian prices could otherwise exert on German inland values.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Region: Germany)

The 2026 growing season in Germany was characterized by a very dry spring followed by a pronounced heatwave in summer, which national authorities identified as a key driver of reduced cereal yields and rising feed shortages. Barley, harvested earlier than other winter cereals, partially escaped the worst late‑season stress but still recorded below‑average performance in many regions.

As of late September, autumn sowing of winter barley is underway across northern Germany. With subsoil moisture already depleted after the dry season, producers remain highly weather‑sensitive: any renewed rainfall deficits during establishment could curb 2027 yield potential and keep the forward curve for feed barley supported.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

• Domestic tightness: A smaller German 2026 cereal harvest and explicit warnings about forage shortfalls in parts of the country are supporting feed grain prices and discouraging aggressive selling by farmers.
• EU price backdrop: EU monitoring shows German feed barley benchmarks in southern markets trading firmly higher than in early summer, aligning with the steady to firmer tone seen in Lower Saxony cash values.
• Black Sea competition: Global assessments indicate that Black Sea and other export origins continue to offer competitive feed barley FOB values, but geopolitical risks and transport bottlenecks limit how much of this price advantage can be transmitted into Germany.
• Feed demand: High forage costs and limited alternative roughage options keep livestock producers focused on energy‑dense cereals, with barley remaining a key component in cattle and pig rations, especially in northern Germany.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

Trading Outlook (next 1–2 weeks)

• Feed compounders (DE): Consider covering near‑term needs at current EXW Drentwede levels, as domestic fundamentals look too tight for a meaningful downside without a clear loosening in forage conditions or a surge in low‑priced imports.
• Livestock farms: Opportunistic buying of Ukrainian barley (FCA/FOB/CPT) remains attractive where logistics and quality are manageable, but budget in a risk premium for delays and freight volatility.
• Producers (DE): With EXW prices stable but historically supported by a weak harvest, retaining a portion of stocks appears justified unless futures and physical bids weaken notably against other feed grains.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (directional)

• Lower Saxony (EXW farm / local elevators): Sideways bias; prices likely to hover around current 0.227 EUR/kg EXW, with only minor intra‑day fluctuations expected.
• Southern Germany (e.g. Würzburg / Munich benchmarks): Slightly firm tone relative to earlier in the month, but no sharp moves anticipated over the next three sessions given limited fresh fundamentals.
• Black Sea‑linked imports into Germany (via UA/Odesa): Soft undertone at origin after recent price trimming, but net German landed values will remain governed by freight, insurance and security costs rather than further declines in Ukrainian FOB/FCA levels.