German Feed Oats Flat as EU Cash and CBOT Futures Stabilise

German feed oat prices are holding steady with no fresh impulse from either local fundamentals or international futures. Stable EU cash levels and a cautiously firmer CBOT curve point to a broadly balanced market, with only limited short-term volatility expected. German feed oats are trading flat in northern regions, broadly aligned with EU reference prices around EUR 175–180/t FCA for August/SPOT deliveries, indicating comfortable nearby availability and a lack of acute supply stress.  Recent assessments also highlight that northern German cash levels are tracking these benchmarks closely, underlining the sideways tone in the physical market.  

Prices

In northern Germany, feed-grade oats for nearby EXW loading in Lower Saxony are assessed around EUR 195/t, unchanged over the past week and broadly flat since mid-August. Converted from regional spot quotes, this places German cash a touch above generic EU oat index levels near EUR 193/t FCA Europe, consistent with the typical premium for nearby domestic supply and shorter truck hauls.  

On the futures side, CBOT oats have firmed modestly, with the December 2026 contract recently trading around 374.75 USc/bu, up on the day and reflecting slightly improved sentiment further along the curve. At prevailing FX and using a standard conversion, this equates to roughly EUR 185–190/t, leaving German physical valuations only moderately above imported-value benchmarks and limiting incentive for aggressive price moves in either direction.  

Supply & Demand

Regionally, the 2026 German grains balance shows robust availability of feed cereals, with official statistics pointing to a still well-supplied feed sector driven mainly by wheat, barley and maize, and only a modest role for oats in industrial compound feed formulations.  

Recent EU-wide analysis warns of drought-related yield losses in summer crops such as maize and green fodder, particularly across western and central Europe, which could tighten overall fodder availability later in the season. However, oats are relatively resilient under suboptimal conditions, and the current German harvest has progressed without major disruptions, helping to replenish local feed oat stocks and reinforcing today’s calm price picture.  

In the export arena, Ukrainian grain flows remain constrained by an intensified blockade of Black Sea ports, sharply reducing outbound volumes from Odesa and neighbouring terminals at the peak of harvest. While oats represent only a small share of Ukraine’s grain export basket, the broader reduction in Black Sea grain availability underpins a mildly supportive backdrop for EU feed cereals, preventing deeper price declines even where local supply is comfortable.  

Weather & Crop Conditions (DE)

Over the next three days around Drentwede in Lower Saxony, forecasts indicate mostly mild late-summer weather with highs near 22°C and lows in the low to mid-teens. Conditions will be partly sunny with intermittent showers and light rain, but no significant heat spikes or prolonged rainfall events are expected.  

With the main oat harvest in northern Germany largely completed and fields drying out after earlier summer heat, the current pattern is broadly neutral for price formation. Showers may briefly slow remaining fieldwork and logistics in isolated spots but are not intense enough to affect grain quality or trigger noticeable basis moves in the very short term.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

At the macro level, EU cereal markets are characterised by relative stability, with recent official commentary emphasising resilient livestock and dairy sectors despite higher input costs. This underpins steady feed demand but leaves little scope for a sharp, demand-led surge in oats, which remain a secondary feed grain compared with wheat, barley and maize.  

Structurally, EU outlook work continues to point to only modest long-term shifts in cereal use for feed, with oats benefiting more from gradual growth in food and speciality uses than from the compound feed channel. Against that backdrop, today’s flat German feed oat prices mainly reflect near-term harvest and logistics dynamics rather than any major change in underlying demand.  

Trading Outlook & 3-Day View

• Producers (DE): With EXW values around EUR 195/t and a neutral weather/outlook, holding moderate stocks appears reasonable; only large unpriced volumes might justify small scale forward sales while CBOT deferred contracts retain a slight upward bias.
• Feed buyers: Near-term coverage in northern Germany looks comfortable; consider buying hand-to-mouth for September while monitoring any escalation in Black Sea disruptions or a sharper tightening in EU fodder balances.
• Traders: Basis levels in northern Germany versus EU oat indices and CBOT imports are broadly in line; opportunities are mainly in selective arbitrage between domestic truck markets and nearby port demand should freight or quality spreads temporarily widen.

3-day regional price indication (DE, Lower Saxony):

• Feed oats EXW farm: ≈ EUR 195/t, bias: sideways (± EUR 2–3/t range).
• Local trade buying interest: steady for nearby positions; limited forward liquidity beyond Q4.
• Volatility drivers (short term): weather impact negligible; main risk stems from any further deterioration in Ukraine export logistics spilling into broader EU feed grains.