German Feed Oats Flat as Mild Weather Supports Early New-Crop Start
German feed oat prices stay flat as mild weather supports early harvest and EU oats supply remains ample. Short-term outlook: sideways with mild downside risk.
Prices
Ex-farm feed oat offers in northern Germany are broadly aligned with national reference levels of around 0.18–0.21 EUR/kg (≈180–210 EUR/t), reflecting a weak but stable market. EU reference data for feed oats shows July 2026 prices around 172–175 EUR/t, slightly below June and pointing to a softening but not collapsing trend.
Internationally, ex-farm and FOB feed oats in other European origins, such as the UK, trade at modest discounts versus recent years, underscoring a broadly pressured oats complex in Europe. Black Sea grain prices remain underpinned by war-related risks, meaning Ukrainian oats do not yet provide a strong undercut to German values despite lower production and constrained export capacity.
Supply & Demand
EU oats fundamentals remain comfortable, with recent EU data indicating rising cumulative exports and significantly higher 2025/26 supply compared with earlier seasons, which implies no structural tightness. Rising ending stocks and robust feed usage confirm that oats are competing aggressively with other feed grains rather than facing scarcity.
In the Black Sea, Ukraine’s overall grain and oilseed exports in MY 2025/26 reached about 41.1 million tonnes, below potential due to infrastructure damage and logistical bottlenecks. While oats are a small share of this, constrained export capacity keeps Ukrainian offers relatively firm, limiting deeply discounted inflows into the EU feed market.
Weather & Harvest Outlook (Germany)
For northern Germany, short-term weather is forecast to remain mild with daytime highs largely in the low to mid‑20s °C and limited heat stress or excessive rainfall. These conditions are supportive for the early stages of harvest and should help preserve grain quality, reducing weather-risk premiums in prices.
With no major drought or flooding threat currently signaled for the next week in key oat regions, the market is inclined to treat weather as neutral to slightly bearish for prices. Any localised storms or delays would likely have only temporary and regional price impacts, given the comfortable EU-wide balance.
Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Ample EU oats balance: EU production and stocks for 2025/26 are projected well above earlier years, underpinning a supply-heavy backdrop and containing rallies.
- Quiet feed demand: Recent European grain market commentary indicates that consumers are largely covered and hesitant to extend forward cover before harvest quality is known, which caps nearby demand.
- Competitive feed complex: Other feed grains in Germany, such as barley and rye, also show weak to slightly declining price trends, limiting oats’ ability to decouple to the upside.
- Black Sea risk premium: Continued attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and resulting logistical issues keep a modest risk premium in regional grain prices, but this is more visible in wheat and corn than in oats.
Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View
- For buyers (feed mills, traders): Short‑term coverage can be maintained hand‑to‑mouth; with comfortable EU supply and benign weather, downside risk over the next days still outweighs upside risk.
- For sellers (farmers): Consider small scale forward sales on any minor rallies to manage storage and liquidity, but avoid heavy selling pressure at current weak levels unless on‑farm space is tight.
- For risk managers: Monitor broader feed grain markets (wheat, barley, corn) and Black Sea headlines; any sharp move there could temporarily spill over into oats, offering hedging windows.
3‑day regional price indication (Germany, ex‑farm): Feed oats are expected to trade broadly flat around 0.18–0.21 EUR/kg (≈180–210 EUR/t) through the next three days, with only minor local deviations linked to harvest progress and logistics.