German Feed Oats Flat at €195/t as Markets Look Past Black Sea Risks

German feed oat prices remain unchanged around €195/t EXW Drentwede, with nearby EU feed markets well supplied and only limited short‑term upside despite ongoing disruptions to Ukrainian Black Sea exports. In northern Germany, cash oats are holding steady as the new-crop harvest wraps up and compound feed demand stays seasonally firm but unspectacular. Regional grain market reports indicate largely adequate cereal supplies and only moderate quality issues after a weather‑challenging growing season, while oat-specific demand remains niche compared with wheat and barley. At the same time, international futures for oats and other grains have softened slightly, and buyers face no urgent need to secure volume at higher prices. Black Sea tensions and constrained Ukrainian grain exports add a layer of risk, but for now they are absorbed by broad EU availability and alternative origins.

Prices

Feed-grade oats in northern Germany are assessed around €195/t EXW for bulk deliveries, unchanged over the past two weeks and roughly €7/t above early August levels, signalling a stable but firm price floor.  Regional feed price overviews for the week of 31 August–6 September show cereals broadly steady, with only marginal movements in minor feed grains. On international markets, nearby CBOT oat futures are trading near the equivalent of €320–330/t, slightly lower on the week, offering no strong bullish impulse for EU cash values.

Supply & Demand

The German harvest report for 2026 confirms a mixed grain season with weather extremes but overall sufficient cereal output, limiting immediate concerns about domestic feed availability. While oats are a small share of total grain production, regional cooperatives report adequate new-crop supplies in northern Germany, and buyers can also switch into barley and wheat for feed rations where necessary.

In Ukraine, grain exports via Odesa and neighbouring Black Sea ports remain severely constrained by Russian attacks and a de facto blockade, sharply reducing seaborne flows at the height of harvest. Logistics is shifting to Danube and western land routes, but overall shipments are still well below normal, keeping Ukrainian inland prices depressed while limiting direct competition into the EU. For German oats, this translates into a neutral to mildly supportive backdrop: Black Sea disruption raises general grain risk premia, but ample EU oats and alternative grain supplies prevent a pronounced rally.

Fundamentals & Weather

Recent EU crop monitoring indicates that cereal yields in many regions, including Germany, have been capped by spring and early-summer weather extremes, yet remain close to the five-year average overall. This supports a picture of neither shortage nor surplus for feed grains. In the German feed complex, soft wheat and barley stay the price leaders, with oats trading at a modest discount or parity depending on logistics and local demand.

Agricultural weather forecasts for northern Germany over the coming days point to generally dry to showery conditions with moderate temperatures, favourable for final fieldwork and grain movements but unlikely to change yield outcomes for already harvested oats. As maize for silage reaches maturity earlier than usual, feed mills will soon have access to fresh maize, providing an additional alternative to oats in rations and helping cap oat price momentum.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Flat to slightly firmer bias: With German feed oats stable around €195/t and no immediate supply stress, prices are expected to move sideways with a mild upward bias if wider grain markets react to further Black Sea escalations.
• For buyers (feed mills, integrators): Consider covering near-term requirements on dips but avoid over-extending coverage; alternative feed grains and early silage maize temper upside risk.
• For sellers (farmers, collectors): Given stable basis and geopolitical risk in the background, holding a portion of stocks into autumn may offer modest carry potential, but strong rallies look unlikely without a broader grain shock.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Germany)

• Northern Germany (EXW, feed oats): Sideways around €195/t, bid/ask spreads narrow, low volatility expected through the next three trading days.
• Western & Central Germany: Prices broadly aligned with northern values, minor ±€2/t regional variation driven by freight rather than fundamentals.
• Export parity (nearby EU destinations): Stable in the high €190s/t delivered-equivalent; no strong export pull anticipated in the very short term.