German Feed Oats Hold Firm Near €0.21/kg as Weather Risk Fades

German feed oat prices in Lower Saxony are stable around the recent high, with only limited fresh upside momentum expected in the very short term. Despite heat‑ and drought‑related stress during the 2026 growing season, the new-crop oat balance in northern Germany looks comfortable enough to cap further price spikes, while logistics and quality premia keep physical bids clearly above national averages. Nearby weather in Lower Saxony turns cooler and more unsettled, but the harvest is largely complete, so the impact is mainly on logistics rather than yield risk. Traders therefore see a sideways to slightly firm price pattern, closely tracking EU cereal benchmarks and Black Sea news.

Prices

Spot feed oats ex farm in Drentwede (Lower Saxony, EXW) are assessed around EUR 0.205/kg, roughly 5% above late‑August values near EUR 0.195/kg, reflecting a firming trend since the start of September. Converted to per‑ton terms, this implies about EUR 205/t, clearly above the German national average feed oat indication of roughly EUR 130–135/t reported for early September 2026, underlining strong regional premia in northern Germany for quality and short‑haul supply.

Ukrainian feed oats ex Odesa (FCA) at about EUR 0.19/kg (≈EUR 190/t) stay at a discount to German physical values, but the spread has narrowed over recent weeks, limiting import arbitrage once freight and risk premia are included. With German cereal prices overall supported by weather‑related harvest losses and elevated input costs, oats are trading in the upper segment of their EU range but without clear breakout signals in the very short term.

Supply & Demand

Germany’s overall 2026 grain harvest is around 7% below last year and slightly below the multi‑year average, after a dry spring and hot summer reduced yields; this tightens the broad feed grain balance and lends structural support to oats. However, regional reports from Lower Saxony and North Rhine‑Westphalia describe cereal yields as “solid” despite weather extremes, suggesting that local oat availability in the northwest is not critically tight.

At EU level, oats area remains relatively high due to decent profitability compared with other spring grains, even if a modest area reduction is expected in MY 2026/27. Feed use is forecast to ease slightly in line with a lower harvest, while food and industrial demand, particularly for oat drinks and flakes, continues to rise, keeping mid‑term fundamentals constructive. For German feed buyers, this means less buffer from imports and a greater dependence on domestic and near‑by EU origins.

Black Sea flows remain an important reference: Ukraine continues to be a key grain supplier to the EU feed sector, but tighter trade measures and logistical risks limit the scope for very cheap inflows. In oats specifically, Ukrainian offers are competitive on paper yet constrained by freight and risk premia, which helps explain why northern German bids can hold at a notable premium without attracting large replacement volumes.

Weather & Fundamentals

Weather data for Drentwede for 18–20 September indicate mild temperatures around 19–20°C daytime highs, frequent cloud cover, breezy conditions and scattered showers. With the 2026 cereal harvest in Lower Saxony largely completed, these conditions have limited relevance for yields but can slow field work and on‑farm drying or loading during brief wet spells. Logistical disruptions, however, are expected to be minor given the relatively light precipitation indicated.

National harvest assessments highlight that a dry spring and a very hot, dry summer accelerated ripening and in some regions trimmed grain yields, though quality in bread cereals remains mostly solid. For oats, regional trial data show reasonable performance of main varieties, and no widespread quality disaster has been reported, implying that feed‑grade supply is adequate, albeit not abundant. Combined with high energy and fertiliser costs, this environment encourages producers to defend current price levels rather than discount aggressively into the feed chain.

3‑Day Price Outlook (DE, EXW feed oats)

• 18 September: Sideways. Local bids in Lower Saxony expected around EUR 0.205/kg; light showers may slow loadings but should not materially affect availability.
• 19 September: Sideways to slightly firm. Mostly cloudy, breezy conditions and firm EU cereal benchmarks support current levels; sellers show limited pressure to move additional tonnage.
• 20 September: Sideways. With no major market‑moving news anticipated over the weekend and weather still only moderately unsettled, regional EXW indications are likely to remain close to EUR 0.205/kg.

Trading Outlook

• Feed buyers (Germany): Consider covering immediate needs at current levels; regional prices are at a premium to national averages but appear well supported by fundamentals and may not correct sharply in the near term.
• Producers (Lower Saxony): With a roughly 5% price gain since late August and no clear bearish driver, gradual scale‑up selling on small further rallies above EUR 0.205/kg looks prudent while retaining some unpriced tons for winter demand.
• Importers / Traders: The narrowing spread versus Ukrainian FCA offers limits straightforward import arbitrage; focus on opportunistic cargoes rather than large structural positions unless freight or Black Sea risk premia ease.