German Feed Oats Hold Steady Around €0.205/kg as Harvest Pressure Fades

German feed oat prices in Lower Saxony are holding stable around the recent high band, with little sign of either renewed harvest pressure or immediate upside momentum. Regional physical values continue to trade at a notable premium to national farm-gate averages, reflecting strong local feed demand and tight nearby supply. German cereals as a whole remain well supported, but the oat market is relatively calm compared with the heightened volatility in wheat and maize linked to Black Sea disruptions. National advisory indications for September confirm that feed oats are priced firmly within the cereal complex in Germany, while EU‑27 data show only modest month‑on‑month gains. Short‑term, benign weather and largely completed fieldwork in Lower Saxony point to a sideways market unless external shocks in the wider grain complex spill over into oats.

Prices

Spot indications for German feed oats in Lower Saxony are quoted at EUR 0.205/kg EXW Drentwede, unchanged versus 18 September 2026 and marking a plateau after the early‑September uptick.

By contrast, German national average farm-gate feed oat prices for September are reported around EUR 130–135/t, underscoring a sizeable regional premium in northern Germany when compared with local spot bids. Advisory feed grain benchmarks from Lower Saxony place September oat values in a range of EUR 12.00–16.95 per 100 kg, broadly consistent with this firm but not rallying tone.

Ukrainian feed oats for export remain competitively priced in the Black Sea region, but ongoing logistical disruptions and higher freight and risk premia continue to limit any strong downward pressure on delivered German values in the very short term.

Supply & Demand

German oat availability into late September is shaped by a largely completed harvest and solid feed demand, especially in livestock-intensive regions such as Lower Saxony. Regional advisory bodies highlight generally firm cereal price levels for September, with oats priced competitively versus barley and rye, which helps maintain inclusion rates in compound feed.

At EU level, feed oat prices have edged only slightly higher month on month, suggesting that the bloc is adequately supplied overall and that Germany is not facing acute shortage. However, structural tightness in quality local stocks and the cost of short-haul logistics sustain a premium in the north‑west. Import competition from Ukraine remains constrained by Black Sea security issues and more complex overland routes, which raise costs and slow flows of feed grains, including niche crops such as oats.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Region: Germany)

For Lower Saxony, short-term weather forecasts for 22–25 September 2026 indicate mostly dry to overcast conditions with daytime highs around 18–20°C and limited rainfall, following a brief wetter spell. This pattern is broadly seasonally normal and supports good field access for any remaining post-harvest operations.

With the 2026 oat harvest effectively wrapped up, current weather has minimal impact on yield outcomes and only modest influence on near-term logistics. Forecasts into the end of September point to slightly warmer, predominantly dry weather, which should help maintain smooth truck movements and keep quality risks in on-farm storage low.

Fundamentals & External Drivers

EU‑27 cereal price data show feed oats gaining about 2.1% month on month in September while still trading around 6–7% below year‑earlier levels, signalling a market that is firm but not tight on a historical basis. In Germany, advisory price tables equally underline that oats remain one of the cheaper cereal options in energy terms, which should cap substitution away from oats in feed rations.

Globally, grain markets remain sensitive to escalating disruptions in the Black Sea, where intensified attacks have reduced Ukrainian grain export capacity and cut into Russian flows, pushing risk premia higher across the cereal complex. While oats are a smaller traded market than wheat or maize, any broad rally in feed grains could spill over into oat prices via feed substitution and competing acreage in the next planting cycle.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Market bias (next 3–5 trading days): Sideways to slightly firm for German feed oats in Lower Saxony.

• Buyers (feed mills, livestock producers): Consider covering near-term needs at current EXW levels, as stable weather and adequate EU supply argue against a sharp price spike, but Black Sea risk keeps downside limited.
• Farmers/holders: With local prices at a clear premium to national averages, incremental sales on strength above current spot may be attractive, especially if storage is needed for later cereals or oilseeds.
• Traders: Monitor spreads between northern German physical prices and EU benchmarks; persistent regional premia offer opportunities in back‑to‑back origination and short‑haul logistics rather than directional bets.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Germany)