German Feed Oats Hold Steady as Harvest Eases Supply Tension

German feed oat prices are stable at a relatively firm level, with no movement over the past trading week despite some regional variability in broader grain markets. Adequate domestic supply after the 2026 harvest and calm cash trading keep oats range‑bound in northern Germany, while Black Sea flows and CBOT oats provide only limited direction for now. After a strong early‑September rally, German feed oats have settled into a narrow band, reflecting comfortable on‑farm stocks and cautious buying from compound feed producers. Market data from Lower Saxony show indicative feed oat values remaining in the mid‑teens EUR/100 kg range through September, while physical market commentary points to flat price assessments across northern Germany. With weather risks currently low and no major disruption in intra‑EU trade, near‑term volatility appears limited and buyers are selectively covering only short‑term needs.

Prices

Feed oat prices in northern Germany are described as flat, with recent market indications around the mid‑190s EUR/t EXW for standard feed quality. This aligns closely with today’s spot quotations for feed grade oats (moisture 14% max) EXW Drentwede, which are unchanged versus the previous week, underscoring a sideways price trend.

Regional reference values from the Lower Saxony Chamber of Agriculture for September 2026 put feed oats in a wide corridor of 12.00–16.95 EUR/100 kg, signalling that while some local discounts exist, the overall price environment remains stable to slightly firm compared with late summer. Export‑oriented Ukrainian feed oats FCA Odesa are reported at somewhat lower levels, maintaining a modest discount to German origin but not enough to force a repricing in the German interior given logistics and risk premia.

Supply & Demand

The German 2026 cereal harvest reached about 37.5 million tonnes, slightly below the previous year, but with oats benefiting from generally good conditions and sufficient yields. National harvest reporting highlights no major weather‑related losses in oats, and northern states such as Lower Saxony report smooth harvest progress, translating into adequate feed oat availability on farm.

EU‑wide, oats remain a relatively small but important feed grain, with the majority of production used in animal nutrition and a growing share in food and oat‑drink processing. While recent strategic outlooks foresee a gradual reduction in cereal use for feed, including oats, current German demand from cattle and equine sectors remains steady. At the same time, Ukraine continues to offer exportable feed oats at competitive levels, but Black Sea logistical uncertainties focus demand more on intra‑EU origins, supporting German prices.

Fundamentals & Weather

Germany is among the key cereals producers in the EU, and Lower Saxony in particular combines strong livestock density with significant areas of oats, wheat and rye. This structural linkage between local livestock herds and nearby feed grain supply underpins a relatively inelastic demand base for feed oats, helping to stabilise prices when harvest volumes are adequate.

Over the next three days, the weather outlook for Lower Saxony (including the Drentwede area) points to mild early‑autumn conditions with moderate temperatures, scattered showers and no extreme events. With the oat harvest already completed, this pattern is neutral to slightly positive: it supports post‑harvest field work and storage conditions without creating new quality or logistics risks for existing stocks.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Directional bias: Sideways. With German EXW feed oats around 0.205 EUR/kg and Ukrainian FCA offers at 0.19 EUR/kg, the market is well supplied and lacks a catalyst for a sharp move in either direction.
• For buyers (feed mills, livestock integrators): Consider rolling coverage on a hand‑to‑mouth to 1–2 month basis, as nearby price risk appears limited. Opportunistic dips linked to broader grain or freight volatility may offer chances to extend coverage modestly into Q4.
• For sellers (farmers, collectors): With flat prices and no immediate tightening signal, maintaining some unsold stocks is reasonable, but upside appears capped in the short term. Scale‑up sales on any rally driven by outside markets rather than local fundamentals.
• Risk factors to watch: Any renewed disruption of Black Sea grain flows, an abrupt shift in feed demand (e.g., herd reductions), or unexpected quality issues in stored oats could break the current range, but none are visible at scale for the coming week.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• Northern Germany (EXW, feed oats, Drentwede hub): Stable, with a narrow range anticipated around current spot levels over the next three trading days.
• Eastern Germany (interior feed markets): Mostly stable; minor basis noise possible versus northern ports but no clear directional driver.
• Black Sea (Ukraine FCA Odesa): Steady to slightly firm in EUR terms as logistics risk premia persist, but still at a discount to German origin, limiting upside spill‑over into the German domestic market.