German Feed Wheat Edges Higher as Black Sea Pressure Eases

German feed wheat prices are grinding higher, supported by tight regional supply after early-summer heat damage and a softer Black Sea export outlook. However, ample EU feed grain availability and cautious demand from compounders are keeping the rally gradual rather than explosive. In northern Germany, ex-farm and ex-warehouse feed wheat is trading in the low‑to‑mid €220s/t range, modestly above last week amid steady domestic consumption and limited harvest pressure. Cooler, showery weather is stabilising yield expectations after June’s heat stress, while also slowing field work. At the same time, mounting uncertainty over Ukraine’s new‑season export capacity and ongoing climate‑driven yield risks worldwide are lending structural support to European prices, even as nearby futures and French FOB values stay under clear pressure.

Prices

Latest indications put feed wheat in Drentwede (EXW, Germany) around €225/t, up roughly 0.5–1.0% versus mid‑last week and about €6–7/t above late July levels, confirming a slow but persistent uptrend.

In comparison, milling wheat benchmarks in France and the US have eased over the past week as markets digest earlier weather risk premiums and focus on comfortable near‑term availability, widening the relative discount of German feed wheat versus higher‑grade origins.

Supply & Demand

Recent analysis of the late‑June European heatwave suggests over €2bn in grain value was lost, with France and southern Germany among the worst‑affected regions and wheat hit during kernel filling. This underpins a structurally tighter balance for high‑quality wheat in Western Europe, even if total feed grain availability remains adequate.

At the same time, Ukrainian export prospects for 2026/27 have deteriorated sharply following renewed attacks on Odesa‑area ports and a tighter Russian blockade, with official projections pointing to a potential halving of total agricultural exports and wheat exports dropping by more than 50% versus earlier expectations. While alternative land and river routes can offset some losses, logistical frictions support Black Sea basis levels and indirectly floor EU feed wheat prices.

Globally, discussions about unusually low wheat stocks and broader El Niño‑related food‑supply risks are adding a risk premium further along the curve, though spot demand in Germany remains pragmatic and price‑sensitive. Livestock producers continue to blend wheat with other feed components, limiting aggressive spot buying at current levels.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Germany)

For Lower Saxony and adjacent north‑German wheat areas, the next three days (18–20 August) are forecast to be mostly cloudy with scattered showers, daytime highs from 18–24°C and cool nights around 12–15°C. This pattern is seasonally mild and moisture‑positive, preventing further heat stress on later‑harvested fields and supporting soil moisture for follow‑on crops.

The cooler, unsettled pattern slightly delays harvest progress but is broadly yield‑friendly after June’s record heat. With the main quality risks already crystallised, this week’s weather mainly influences harvest logistics and short‑term supply flow rather than overall German wheat output.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• EU wheat balance: Earlier in the season, French and EU wheat prices rallied on drought and heat concerns, but subsequent data still point to an overall adequate – if tighter – European balance, especially for feed grains.
• Quality split: Heat at grain‑filling in France and southern Germany increased the share of feed‑grade wheat relative to milling quality, widening internal spreads and keeping feed values in focus for German buyers.
• Black Sea risk: Prospective cuts of more than 50% in Ukrainian 2026/27 grain exports, combined with ongoing geopolitical risk, cap the downside for EU origin despite currently competitive Ukrainian farm‑gate and FOB offers.
• Macro & hedging: Elevated price volatility over recent years has increased hedging via Euronext wheat futures and options, reinforcing the link between German cash prices and Paris benchmarks while also amplifying short‑term price swings.

Trading Outlook

• Feed buyers (German livestock, compounders): Consider securing a portion of Q4 needs at current EXW levels around the low‑to‑mid €220s/t, as downside from here appears limited by Black Sea export risk and structurally tighter EU wheat stocks.
• Producers in northern Germany: Use current firmness to advance incremental sales, but retain some unpriced volume given ongoing geopolitical and climate‑related upside risks into winter.
• Traders: Watch quality spreads between feed and milling grades; any renewed rally in Paris milling wheat on global news could outpace feed wheat, opening short‑feed/long‑milling opportunities.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (DE‑focused)

• North Germany (feed wheat, EXW): Slightly firmer bias over the next 3 days, with prices likely to trade in a ~€222–228/t band as showers slow harvest but do not materially loosen supply.
• German inland elevators (feed wheat, rail/road): Stable to modestly higher, tracking northern cash values and cautious but steady demand from compounders.
• Link to Euronext Paris: Spot German feed wheat expected to retain a moderate discount to Paris milling wheat, but basis could strengthen if Black Sea logistics worsen further.