German Feed Wheat Firms as Black Sea Risks Rise

German feed wheat prices are edging higher, supported by local harvest weather and renewed disruption of Black Sea grain exports, while Ukrainian and French benchmarks remain under pressure. Near term, the price tone in northern Germany is mildly firmer, but capped by ample European supply and only modest demand from the feed sector. In Lower Saxony, feed wheat EXW Drentwede has climbed to around €219/t, up about 4% since late June, reflecting tightening farmer selling during harvest and some basis support versus Paris futures. At the same time, Ukraine’s export offers have softened in recent weeks, but fresh attacks on Black Sea ports and a temporary suspension of new vessel arrivals are reigniting risk premiums in European nearby markets. Weather in northern Germany over the next three days looks largely harvest-friendly, pointing to continued progress and a still-balanced local physical market.

Prices

German feed wheat (EXW Drentwede) last traded at about €219/t, up from roughly €211/t on 23 July and €197/t at the end of June, signalling a steady upward trend into the core harvest window. This corresponds to a gain of around €8/t in the past week and over €20/t month-on-month.

Ukrainian 11.5% protein wheat FOB ports was assessed near $228.5/t on 21 July, equivalent to roughly €211–213/t, putting Black Sea milling wheat at only a small discount to current German feed values once freight is included. Euronext soft wheat futures in Paris have also firmed over the past two sessions as the market prices in renewed export risks from the region.

Supply & Demand

Winter wheat harvesting in Lower Saxony is progressing after an early start to the grain harvest with winter barley; around 343,000 ha of winter wheat are planted in the state this season. While yields data are still limited, the crop is generally expected to be near average, providing comfortable regional feed supplies.

On the export side, Ukraine has lost roughly one-third of its grain export capacity through key Black Sea ports after intensified Russian strikes, with shipowners temporarily halting new farm-export calls to Odesa-area terminals for security reasons. Some Ukrainian grain is shifting to EU routes via Romania and other Solidarity Lanes, but logistics remain more expensive and slower than deep-sea routes. For EU consumers, this implies tighter availability of competitively priced Black Sea wheat in the short run, mildly supportive for German and French prices.

Weather & Harvest Outlook (Germany, DE)

For Drentwede and surrounding areas, the next three days bring mostly favourable conditions for ongoing wheat harvest. Forecasts indicate a warm and mostly dry Saturday with highs around 28°C, followed by cooler, cloudier weather on Sunday with only a chance of a stray shower, and partly sunny conditions on Monday with mild temperatures in the low 20s.

These patterns support field access and allow for steady combining, after a generally dry winter and episodic early-summer heat episodes in parts of Germany. The current outlook does not signal imminent weather-related supply stress for northern German feed wheat, so local price strength is more linked to logistics, farmer selling pace and external risk premia than to yield loss fears.

Key Drivers

• Local harvest pressure vs. holding behaviour: While harvest adds physical supply, some German farmers are reluctant sellers at current levels after earlier price weakness, lending support to spot EXW quotes.
• Black Sea disruption premium: Missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian ports, suspension of new vessel arrivals and damage to key terminals have cut effective Black Sea grain export capacity, lifting risk premia across European wheat benchmarks.
• EU export channels still open: Solidarity Lanes through EU ports remain critical, with over 4.2 Mt of grain and oilseeds shipped that way in May 2026, cushioning some of the Black Sea shortfall.
• Global balance comfortable but more fragile: Recent analysis still points to broadly adequate global wheat stocks for 2026/27, but both Ukrainian and Russian export outlooks are increasingly uncertain, leaving markets more sensitive to any further supply shocks.

Trading Outlook (next 3–5 days)

• Feed compounders / buyers (DE): Consider covering short-term needs soon; current €219/t EXW looks fair given escalating Black Sea risks, with a moderate upside bias if disruptions persist.
• Producers (DE): With harvest-friendly weather and firmer futures, a scale-up selling strategy on rallies above the current level is prudent, while keeping some volume open in case of further geopolitical price spikes.
• Traders: Monitor Paris–Germany basis; reduced availability from Ukraine could tighten exportable surplus in western EU, supporting German feed wheat relative to MATIF and Black Sea origins.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• Germany, Drentwede EXW feed wheat: Slightly firmer bias (0–3 €/t upside) as harvest progresses but risk premia stay elevated.
• Paris Euronext soft wheat (front month): Mildly bullish tone; geopolitical headlines from the Black Sea likely to keep futures supported within the current €210–220/t band.
• Black Sea (Ukraine 11.5% FOB equivalent): Directionally higher risk-adjusted values, though actual physical trades may thin due to shipping suspensions and rerouting via EU ports.