German Feed Wheat Flat as Black Sea Risks Rise Again

German feed wheat prices are holding broadly steady despite renewed disruptions in the Black Sea and weather-related yield concerns in parts of Europe. Local harvest progress and stable nearby demand are keeping the market in a narrow range for now. In northern Germany, early harvest activity and very warm, dry weather are setting the tone for a mostly sideways cash market in the short term. Regional reports point to an only average crop in parts of southern Germany due to heat and dryness, while Schleswig-Holstein and Hesse confirm that combines are rolling with mixed yield expectations. At the same time, renewed attacks on Ukrainian export infrastructure and the temporary suspension of Russian shipping via the Azov-Don corridor are re‑injecting risk into global wheat logistics. For now, ample global supply forecasts led by Ukraine, Russia and Romania cap rallies, but they also make buyers patient.

Prices

German feed wheat (EXW Drentwede) is indicated around EUR 0.201/kg (EUR 201/t), unchanged versus 8 July and up roughly EUR 6/t from late June. Ukrainian feed wheat CPT Odesa trades near EUR 0.170/kg (EUR 170/t), while Ukrainian Grade 2–3 is clustered around EUR 0.182–0.185/kg (EUR 182–185/t). The French FOB milling wheat reference from Paris remains significantly higher, near EUR 0.33/kg (EUR 330/t), underlining the still‑wide spread between German feed and premium milling origins.

Supply & Demand

In Germany, the winter wheat harvest has started in coastal and northern states, with Schleswig‑Holstein reporting the first fields cut and Hesse and Bavaria flagging yield risks due to heat and rainfall deficits. Nationally, farm groups talk of an at‑best average crop in southern regions, contrasting with more resilient stands in the north. This regional split keeps internal flows active and underpins local feed demand in the north‑west.

Globally, the supply backdrop remains comfortable. USDA’s latest projections again lift Ukraine’s 2026/27 wheat harvest and export potential, while crop tour reports point to near‑record crops in parts of the Black Sea, especially Romania and a strong Russian harvest. Yet, freight market updates highlight weak nearby demand from Mediterranean buyers, who are waiting for further harvest pressure before stepping in, which helps explain the lack of strong upside in European prices.

Black Sea & Trade Flows

Risk premia are creeping back into Black Sea logistics. Ukrainian media report serious damage to grain terminals and silos at Chornomorsk after missile and drone attacks, with tens of thousands of tonnes of wheat affected. At the same time, Russia has briefly suspended shipping in the Sea of Azov and through the Azov‑Don Canal after Ukrainian drone strikes, effectively constraining a corridor that usually handles a substantial share of Russian wheat exports.

So far, international freight commentary still expects subdued Black Sea shipments over the coming weeks due to weak import demand rather than outright supply scarcity. For German feed buyers, the key implication is less about physical availability and more about potential volatility in basis and freight, particularly if further attacks disrupt either Ukrainian or Russian flows during the peak export window.

Weather Snapshot – Northern Germany (Next 3 Days)

Lower Saxony, a core feed wheat region, is forecast to stay very warm and mainly dry from 14–16 July, with daytime highs around 28 °C and cool nights near 14–15 °C. The pattern is favourable for rapid harvest progress and grain drying but adds some stress on late‑filling wheat where soil moisture is already stretched.

Lack of meaningful rain in the short term means any subsoil moisture deficits will persist, but with much of the winter wheat now moving into maturity, the immediate yield impact is limited. Instead, the weather mainly supports a swift inflow of new crop into local silos, helping to cap near‑term cash prices despite geopolitical noise.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price direction (3–5 days): German feed wheat EXW north‑west Germany is likely to trade in a narrow EUR 198–205/t band, with harvest pressure offsetting any Black Sea risk premium.
• For feeders: Consider covering near‑term needs on dips towards EUR 200/t, but avoid aggressively extending coverage far into Q4 until clearer data on German and wider EU yields becomes available.
• For farmers: Spot selling of lower‑quality feed parcels during harvest makes sense to manage storage, while keeping higher‑protein lots back for potential basis improvement if milling demand tightens later in the season.
• Risk watch: Monitor further attacks on Black Sea infrastructure or a prolonged shutdown of Russian Azov‑Don logistics; either could quickly add EUR 5–10/t to EU values if importers rush to secure alternative origins.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR)

• Germany, feed wheat EXW north‑west: Mostly sideways, ~EUR 200–203/t.
• Ukraine, feed wheat CPT Odesa: Slightly softer bias if export demand stays weak, ~EUR 168–172/t (logistics risk‑discounted).
• France, FOB milling wheat (11%): Mild downside/sideways with harvest pressure, ~EUR 325–335/t.