German Feed Wheat Stable While Futures Tick Higher on Matif Gains

German feed wheat prices are holding broadly steady, even as Euronext milling wheat futures edge higher, tightening the spread between local feed values and benchmark Matif contracts. Physical feed wheat in northern Germany is trading around EUR 240/t ex farm, with only marginal day-to-day changes, while Paris milling wheat futures have firmed to the EUR 241–249/t range for nearby and Dec-26 positions. Strong harvest progress and comfortable local supply are capping bids, but firmer futures, higher maize prices and logistics costs are lending gentle support. In the short term, the market looks range-bound, with downside limited by international benchmarks and upside capped by ample on-farm stocks and cautious feed demand.

Prices

German feed wheat in Lower Saxony is indicated around EUR 240/t EXW, essentially unchanged over the past few sessions and moving sideways after modest gains through late August.

On the futures side, Euronext Paris milling wheat closed on 7 September at about EUR 241/t for Sep-26 and EUR 249.25/t for Dec-26, up EUR 0.50–3.00 on the day and roughly 6–7% higher on the month, confirming a firmer European benchmark backdrop.  

Supply & Demand

German and wider EU harvest progress is advanced, with winter wheat mostly completed and large on-farm stocks weighing on nearby physical premiums. Early-season EU export competition is tempered by reduced Russian shipments, as August Russian wheat exports fell to about 2.0 Mt, the lowest since 2010, and are projected to stay well below last year in September, supporting EU price floors.  

Domestic compound feed demand remains cautious, but rising maize futures on Euronext and firm global corn values are limiting substitution away from wheat, underpinning feed wheat usage. Basis levels versus Matif remain modest but stable, suggesting neither acute oversupply nor tightness in northern German feed channels.  

Weather Outlook (Germany)

For Lower Saxony, key for German feed wheat, the next three days (8–10 September) are forecast mostly cloudy with a few showers, daytime highs around 19–23°C and cool nights near 8–13°C. This pattern favours ongoing post-harvest field work and grain drying, with no weather threat to remaining wheat or early autumn sowings.  

With harvest largely finished, short-term weather has minimal direct impact on wheat yields but may influence logistics and storage quality. The current forecast points to neutral-to-slightly supportive conditions, with low risk of quality losses in on-farm stocks.

3–5 Day Price & Trading Outlook

Over the coming three trading days, German feed wheat prices are expected to track futures rather than local fundamentals, given comfortable supply and stable demand.

• German feed wheat (Lower Saxony, EXW): Likely to stay in a narrow EUR 235–245/t band, with buyers resisting higher offers unless Matif extends gains.
• Euronext milling wheat (Sep-26): After recent strength, consolidation around EUR 238–244/t is likely, with modest upside risk if Black Sea export flows disappoint.  
• Basis: German feed wheat discounts to Paris milling wheat should remain relatively steady, preserving competitiveness into local feed rations.

Trading Pointers

• Feed buyers (Germany): Consider covering near-term needs on dips towards EUR 235/t, as global benchmarks show a firmer tone and Russian export pressure is easing.
• Producers: With Matif Dec-26 near EUR 250/t, incremental hedging of remaining unpriced 2026 crop looks reasonable, while keeping flexibility in case of further Black Sea disruptions.
• Merchants: Monitor Matif–German physical spreads; a tightening discount could favour rolling some physical length into futures rather than aggressive cash selling.