German Rapeseed Meal Exports Slump While Seed Prices Hold Firm

German rapeseed meal exports in 2025/26 have dropped sharply, tightening export availability and underscoring robust domestic demand, even as competition from soybean meal caps external sales potential. Rapeseed seed prices in Europe and the Black Sea remain relatively firm, supported by strong oil and biofuel demand, with only modest recent fluctuations. The rapeseed complex is currently marked by a notable divergence: weak German meal exports versus resilient seed prices. From July 2025 to April 2026, German rapeseed meal exports fell about 19% year on year to just under 1.2 million tonnes, with key EU destinations such as the Netherlands, Denmark and Finland all taking less volume. At the same time, Euronext rapeseed futures are trading slightly above EUR 520/t, and cash prices in Ukraine and France have stabilised after earlier volatility. This points to a market where domestic EU crushing and meal usage remain solid, but export channels are constrained by alternative protein competition and limited surplus.

Prices

Rapeseed seed prices in key origins are broadly stable to slightly firmer. In Odesa (Ukraine), CPT quotes for standard rapeseed (grade 1, <35 mcm) have moved in a narrow range over the past three weeks, currently around EUR 0.48/kg (EUR 480/t), only marginally higher than mid‑June. In Kyiv and Odesa, FCA prices for 42% oil rapeseed eased from about EUR 0.58/kg to EUR 0.51/kg (EUR 510/t) since mid‑June, suggesting some harvesting pressure on inland markets.

In Western Europe, FOB Paris rapeseed is quoted near EUR 0.70/kg (EUR 700/t), unchanged in recent sessions. Euronext rapeseed futures trade around EUR 520–525/t, slightly above early‑June levels, and roughly 12% higher than a year ago, reflecting firm crush margins and sustained demand for rapeseed oil in food and biodiesel.

Supply & Demand

German rapeseed meal exports between July 2025 and April 2026 reached nearly 1.2 million tonnes, about 19% below the same period a year earlier. The Netherlands remained the main outlet at 468 thousand tonnes, but this was 21% lower year on year. Exports to Denmark declined 11% to just above 160 thousand tonnes, while Finland recorded a sharp 43% drop to 96 thousand tonnes.

Outside the EU, Switzerland continued as a key buyer with close to 66 thousand tonnes (‑4% y/y), and shipments to the UK fell 26% to almost 48 thousand tonnes. Some compensation came from Spain, where purchases rose 64% to about 65 thousand tonnes, yet this was insufficient to offset losses in core Northern European markets. The export slowdown is linked to tighter rapeseed meal availability from Germany, solid domestic feed demand, and stronger competition from alternative protein meals, especially soybean meal.

At the broader EU level, exports of oilseeds and derived products are slightly higher year on year, and rapeseed seed exports in particular have risen, with the UK a key destination. This underlines that Germany’s challenge is specific to meal trade dynamics rather than a general weakness in rapeseed demand.

Fundamentals

The current weakness in German rapeseed meal exports reflects a combination of supply and demand fundamentals. On the supply side, crushers appear to prioritise domestic feed and biofuel chains, which limits exportable surplus. This is consistent with the firm domestic wholesale prices for rapeseed oil and meal seen in recent UFOP market monitoring, and with the positive margin environment signalled by Euronext futures levels.

On the demand side, livestock feeders in Germany and neighbouring countries increasingly substitute with soybean meal and other protein sources where price‑competitive, reducing reliance on imported German rapeseed meal. At the same time, global oilmeal flows are being reshaped by strong Asian demand for competitively priced oilmeals, particularly from India, which adds further price pressure on European exporters in more distant markets.

Weather & Crop Conditions

Recent early‑summer heat across large parts of Europe, with temperatures above 35 °C in late June, has raised concerns about yield potential in some oilseed and cereal regions. However, rapeseed is largely past the most critical flowering stage by this time of year, so the immediate impact on the 2026 harvest appears limited.

Localised stress in France and parts of Central Europe could still affect seed size and oil content, but at this stage the market focus is more on harvest progress and quality than on major crop losses. Weather risk remains a watchpoint, yet current price action suggests no broad‑based production shock is being priced in.

Trading Outlook (2–4 weeks)

• Crushers & feed buyers: The decline in German meal exports and firm domestic demand point to relatively tight nearby rapeseed meal availability. Consider securing forward meal coverage on dips, especially if Euronext futures retreat toward EUR 500/t.
• Farmers in the EU & Black Sea: With CPT/FCA prices in Ukraine holding near EUR 480–510/t and Paris FOB stable around EUR 700/t, downside appears limited unless a larger‑than‑expected harvest weighs on values. Gradual scale‑up sales into current strength may balance price risk and storage constraints.
• Traders: The structural weakness in German meal exports versus resilient seed prices favours strategies that are long rapeseed seeds against short rapeseed meal or competing meals, while closely monitoring soybean meal spreads and biodiesel policy signals.

3‑Day Price Indication

• Euronext rapeseed futures (Paris): Expected to trade sideways to slightly higher around EUR 515–530/t, with support from firm oil demand and stable energy markets.
• Ukraine CPT/FCA rapeseed (Odesa, Kyiv): Likely to remain in a tight band around EUR 0.47–0.52/kg as harvest flows meet steady export and crush demand.
• FOB Paris physical rapeseed: Prices should hold close to EUR 0.70/kg in the very short term, barring abrupt moves in currency or energy markets.