German Triticale Feed Prices Edge Higher as Harvest Accelerates

German triticale feed prices in Lower Saxony are firming slightly, with EXW indications around 0.19 EUR/kg after a modest uptick since late June. Hot, mostly dry harvest weather in northern Germany is supporting rapid fieldwork but raises concerns about specific weights and protein for later-cut fields. Nearby feed grain competition remains soft, limiting any sharp price breakout. The new-crop cereals harvest in Germany is now well underway, with triticale following early barley and rye. Reports from German farm organizations point to cost pressure and weather-related yield uncertainty, especially after recent heat episodes, even as total cereal area – including triticale – has slightly expanded for 2026/27. Regional market reports from North-Rhine Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein show generally subdued but stable feed grain values, mirroring the sideways tone in triticale. For the coming days, weather in Lower Saxony turns briefly hotter before scattered showers move through, likely keeping harvest pace high while capping short‑term price volatility.

Prices

In Drentwede (Lower Saxony), EXW feed-grade triticale (14% moisture) is currently indicated around 0.19 EUR/kg, up from roughly 0.18–0.19 EUR/kg in late June. This reflects a mild recovery of about 2–3% from the local low at the end of June, but prices remain below early-season highs, in line with the broader German cereals complex where farmgate values have stabilized after earlier weakness. Regional feed compounders in northern Germany continue to report competitive offers across wheat, barley and triticale, keeping any immediate upside contained.

Supply & Demand

The 2026 German cereal harvest has started under financial and weather stress, with farmer groups highlighting high input costs and heat-related risks to yields, particularly in wheat and other later-harvested grains. For triticale specifically, recent German and EU statistics confirm that national triticale area has modestly expanded for the current season, implying slightly higher production potential if weather cooperates.

On the demand side, EU grain market outlooks point to steady but not surging feed use in 2026/27 as livestock herds in several EU countries continue a slow structural decline. In northern Germany, pork and dairy sectors remain under margin pressure despite recent stabilization in pig prices, limiting the willingness of feeders to accept higher grain costs. This environment supports a balanced triticale market: adequate local supply for feed rations, with only moderate export pull and little sign of acute tightness.

Weather & Harvest Conditions (Lower Saxony)

For Lower Saxony around Drentwede and Lemförde, the short-term forecast (15–18 July) calls for mostly hot, dry to slightly unsettled weather: daytime highs around 27–28 °C on 16 July with no significant rain, then a brief cooldown to the low 20s with scattered showers around 17–18 July. This pattern favors fast combining and drying of triticale but could stress crops still filling grain on lighter soils.

Isolated thunderstorms and heavy showers, such as those observed recently in parts of Lower Saxony, underline the localized nature of weather risks at this stage. Overall, near-term conditions should allow the region to push ahead with harvest, with quality outcomes differing field by field depending on prior heat and storm exposure rather than a single uniform weather driver.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Expanded triticale area: German triticale acreage for 2026 is estimated to be up by nearly 5% year on year, adding a modest buffer to regional feed grain supply and limiting price upside despite weather concerns.
• EU cereals export context: EU cereals net exports are projected to rise in 2026/27, keeping a floor under feed grain prices but focusing more on wheat and barley than on triticale, which remains predominantly a domestic feed crop.
• Livestock and feed demand: Ongoing structural declines in some EU livestock categories and emphasis on feed efficiency temper growth in compound feed demand, leaving triticale competing tightly with barley and feed wheat for ration shares in northern Germany.

Trading Outlook (Next 3–5 Days)

• For sellers (farmers, collectors): Use the current small price uptick to move old-crop or early-harvested triticale where on-farm storage is tight. With harvest advancing smoothly and no major weather scare, the near-term risk is for sideways to slightly softer bids if local supply flows increase.
• For buyers (feed mills, integrators): Maintain hand-to-mouth coverage for July while monitoring harvest progress. Consider scaling in additional volumes on any brief harvest pressure dips, particularly if localized storms interrupt combining and temporarily boost farmer selling.
• Risk factors to watch: A sharper deterioration in cereal yield expectations due to prolonged heat or storms in northern Germany could quickly narrow discounts between triticale and wheat, while any renewed rally in global grain markets would also lend support.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Lower Saxony, EXW)

• 15–17 July 2026: Triticale feed, 14% moisture, EXW farm or local silo in Lower Saxony is expected to trade broadly steady in a range of 0.186–0.190 EUR/kg, with a neutral to slightly firm tone as harvest gathers pace and weather remains mostly favorable.