Global Grain & Oilseed Market Report – August 2025

Global Grain & Oilseed Market Report – August 2025

Headline:

Drought, Heat, and Policy Shifts Reshape Global Grain and Oilseed Outlook

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1. Price & Production Overview

(Volumes in million metric tons; EUR/USD values based on FOB export parity estimates)

Commodity & Region	2025/26 Production (MMT)	Change vs July	Change vs Last Year	Approx. Export Value USD B	Approx. Export Value EUR B
Corn – EU	58.0	▼ 2.0	▼ 1.3	12.8	11.6
Corn – Ukraine	32.0	▲ 1.5	▲ 5.2	7.0	6.4
Corn – Indonesia	13.2	▲ 0.4	▲ 0.5	2.9	2.6
Sunflowerseed – EU	9.5	▼ 0.5	▲ 1.0	4.2	3.8
Sunflowerseed – Ukraine	13.5	▼ 0.5	▲ 0.5	6.0	5.5
Soybeans – Uruguay	4.2	▲ 0.9	▲ 0.9	2.0	1.8
Wheat – Ukraine	22.0	0.0	▼ 1.4	5.3	4.8
Wheat – China	140.0	▼ 2.0	≈	Domestic	Domestic
Wheat – Brazil	7.5	▼ 0.5	▼ 0.4	2.2	2.0
Rice (milled) – Nigeria	5.5	▲ 0.3	▼ 0.2	2.6	2.3
Cotton – Uzbekistan	0.57 MMT	▼ 0.07	▼ 0.10	1.2	1.1

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2. Key Market Drivers

Europe (Corn & Sunflowerseed)

• Corn: Output lowered by drought during July pollination, especially in Romania (-1.4 MMT), Hungary (-1.1 MMT), and Bulgaria (-0.5 MMT).
• Sunflowerseed: Heat stress during flowering cuts yields in Hungary, Bulgaria, and Romania.
• Both crops face Balkan yield pressure, though France’s corn output improved.

Ukraine

• Corn: Higher planted area based on official stats; yield stable, but southern heat/dryness is a concern.
• Sunflowerseed: Persistent Steppe Zone dryness hurt yields.
• Wheat: Area up on revised planting data, yield down on harvest results.

Asia

• Indonesia Corn: Record yields from shift to unsubsidized hybrid seed despite reduced seed subsidies.
• China Wheat: Lower yields despite good early-season conditions; still near record output.

South America

• Uruguay Soybeans: Record 3.12 t/ha yield on excellent weather.
• Brazil Wheat: Reduced planted area from farmer discouragement despite favourable conditions.

Africa

• Nigeria Rice: Area revisions from AI-based satellite mapping lifted production estimate.

Central Asia

• Uzbekistan Cotton: July heat during the open boll phase sharply reduced yield.

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3. Commentary

Global grain and oilseed markets are entering Q4 2025 with a mixed supply picture:

• Corn – Diverging trends: EU and southern Ukraine under weather stress, while northern Ukraine, the U.S., and Indonesia show strong performance.
• Oilseeds – Sunflowerseed pressure from Balkan drought offsets gains in South America. Soybeans remain a bullish driver, with Uruguay’s record yields and Brazil’s stability.
• Wheat – Ukraine and China’s slight downgrades may tighten Black Sea and Asian supply.
• Rice – Africa’s largest producer, Nigeria, benefits from better area mapping, potentially easing import needs.
• Cotton – Central Asian weather stress could shift sourcing to Brazil, the U.S., and West Africa.

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4. Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Corn: Expect tightness in the EU/Balkans; bullish for regional prices, bearish for importers relying on Black Sea origin.
• Sunflowerseed Oil: Supportive price trend from reduced EU/Ukraine output; bullish spreads vs. soybean oil.
• Wheat: Monitor Black Sea FOB premiums; smaller-than-expected Ukraine yields could strengthen late-2025 contracts.
• Soybeans: Uruguay & Brazil supply stable, neutral to slightly bearish unless U.S. weather worsens.
• Rice: West African import requirements may soften if Nigeria’s output is realised.
• Cotton: Central Asian shortfall could tighten Asian yarn supply chains.

Source: USDA