Global Sugar Prices Continue to Rise – Will the EU Follow Suit?
Closing Prices on January 27, 2025 (ICE Sugar No. 5) Converted to EUR
Using a USD to EUR exchange rate of 0.92, the closing prices for ICE Sugar No. 5 have been converted as follows:
| Contract | Closing Price (USD/t) | Closing Price (EUR/t) | Change (EUR) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 507.00 | 466.44 | +8.10 | +1.74% |
| May 2025 | 497.80 | 457.98 | +5.80 | +1.27% |
| August 2025 | 484.10 | 445.37 | +4.51 | +1.01% |
| October 2025 | 479.70 | 441.32 | +3.68 | +0.83% |
| December 2025 | 480.60 | 442.15 | +2.94 | +0.67% |
| March 2026 | 482.80 | 444.18 | +2.58 | +0.58% |
| May 2026 | 484.20 | 445.46 | +2.39 | +0.54% |
| August 2026 | 485.50 | 446.66 | +2.02 | +0.45% |
| October 2026 | 484.80 | 445.82 | +1.93 | +0.43% |
| December 2026 | 485.60 | 446.75 | +1.84 | +0.41% |
| March 2027 | 487.10 | 448.13 | +1.20 | +0.27% |
| May 2027 | 484.50 | 445.74 | +0.55 | +0.12% |
| August 2027 | 484.30 | 445.56 | +0.55 | +0.12% |
| October 2027 | 483.60 | 444.91 | +0.55 | +0.12% |
Market Analysis: Global Prices Continue to Climb
The upward trend in sugar prices continues, indicating a strengthening global market:
- Short-Term Gains:
- The March 2025 contract saw a +1.74% increase, closing at €466.44/t, reflecting growing short-term demand.
- The May 2025 contract also posted gains of +1.27%, reaching €457.98/t.
- Sustained Strength Across Contracts:
- Even longer-term contracts (through 2027) continue to rise, though at a slower pace.
- The smallest price movements were observed in late 2027 contracts, signalling that the market expects stabilization after the recent gains.
- Demand Factors Driving Prices Up:
- The market is reacting to increasing demand and potential supply limitations.
- Seasonal demand leading up to Easter is likely contributing to higher short-term prices.
- The EU market remains relatively quiet, but global sentiment indicates a firming trend.
EU Sugar Market Situation
- Prices remain between €0.50/kg and €0.54/kg FCA, with relatively weak demand.
- Large retailers continue to receive better pricing than smaller buyers, leading to frustration among industrial buyers.
- The global price rally could soon impact EU pricing, forcing buyers to act before further increases.
Market Outlook
📈 Short-Term: Rising global prices suggest that EU prices may follow suit soon.
📉 Long-Term: The market is stabilizing, but further supply constraints could increase prices.
🔍 Buyers should consider locking in prices now, as further increases are likely in the coming weeks.
Conclusion
The sugar market continues its bullish trend, with ICE Sugar No. 5 prices climbing across all contracts. While the EU remains relatively calm, the global upward momentum suggests that price increases in Europe are only a matter of time. Market participants should closely monitor developments and prepare for potential supply-driven volatility.
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