Hazelnut Kernels Ease Lower as Georgian Supply Competes with Softer Turkish Market

Georgian hazelnut kernel prices in Warsaw have edged down by around 0.15–0.25 EUR/kg over the past week, tracking weaker Turkish offers and comfortable European supply. The tone is mildly bearish in the short term, with no immediate weather threats in western Georgia to tighten the 2026/27 outlook.

Spot trading remains driven by competition between Georgian origins moving into the EU and Turkish FOB kernels, while demand from confectionery buyers is seasonally steady rather than strong. Turkey still controls the bulk of world production and EU imports, anchoring international price levels, but Georgia’s role as a secondary EU supplier continues to expand, especially in shelled kernels. Recent days have brought stable, mild weather in Samegrelo and Guria, supporting orchard conditions without adding any frost or storm risk. Overall, fundamentals point to a sideways-to-softer market into the end of March.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Georgian hazelnut kernels FCA Warsaw on 23 March 2026:

• Natural 11–13 mm: 11.40 EUR/kg (down from 11.55 EUR/kg a week earlier)
• Natural 13–15 mm: 11.70 EUR/kg (down from 11.85 EUR/kg)
• Large 15+ mm: 12.00 EUR/kg (down from 12.05 EUR/kg)

Turkish natural kernels FOB Istanbul (last update mid-March) remain cheaper, at roughly 10.40–10.90 EUR/kg for 11–15 mm sizes, while roasted and processed hazelnut products from Turkey trade near 8.00–9.00 EUR/kg FOB. This keeps a discount of about 0.8–1.3 EUR/kg versus Georgian kernels into the EU, limiting upside for Georgian origin in the short term.

Origin / Grade	Location & Terms	Latest price (EUR/kg)	Weekly change (EUR/kg)
GE nat. 11–13 mm	Warsaw, FCA	11.40	−0.15
GE nat. 13–15 mm	Warsaw, FCA	11.70	−0.15
GE 15+ mm	Warsaw, FCA	12.00	−0.05
TR nat. 11–13 mm	Istanbul, FOB	≈10.40	slightly softer vs. early March
TR nat. 13–15 mm	Istanbul, FOB	≈10.90	slightly softer vs. early March

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Turkey remains the dominant global hazelnut producer and exporter, accounting for the majority of world output and EU imports in recent seasons. Georgia has consolidated its role as a secondary EU supplier, particularly in shelled kernels, ranking among the top non‑EU origins alongside Türkiye, Chile and Azerbaijan in recent import statistics. This structural dependence on a few key suppliers keeps EU buyers focused on relative spreads between Georgian FCA and Turkish FOB offers.

On the demand side, confectionery and chocolate manufacturers in Europe remain the main buyers, led by global brands using large volumes of Turkish and Georgian hazelnuts. Current indications suggest steady but unspectacular offtake going into the post‑Easter period, with no major demand shock reported in the last few days. Against this backdrop, the gentle easing of both Turkish and Georgian offers is best read as a reflection of comfortable near‑term supply rather than a collapse in demand.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather in Georgia (GE)

Georgia’s key hazelnut regions – notably Samegrelo–Zemo Svaneti and Guria in western Georgia – provide the bulk of the country’s production. Seasonal forecasts ahead of the 2025/26 cycle pointed to stable to slightly increasing temperatures and adequate rainfall, supporting medium‑term production potential without a strong drought or frost signal.

Over the past few days (around 22–24 March 2026), local weather in western Georgia has been mild and relatively stable according to regional meteorological updates, with no reports of damaging frost, hail or extreme winds in hazelnut‑growing districts. Short‑range forecasts for the next 3–5 days continue to show moderate temperatures and scattered precipitation only, a neutral‑to‑slightly supportive backdrop for orchards at this stage of the season. (Inference based on current regional forecasts consistent with long‑term climate patterns.)

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price bias: Slightly bearish to sideways for Georgian kernels FCA Warsaw, given recent small declines and cheaper Turkish competition.
• Buyers (EU roasters/confectioners): Consider staggering purchases over the coming 1–2 weeks, taking advantage of the current 0.8–1.3 EUR/kg discount of Turkish origins versus Georgian lots while keeping some coverage with Georgian kernels for diversification.
• Georgian sellers: To maintain flows into the EU, be prepared for moderate discounting or improved payment/quality terms versus Turkish offers, especially on mid‑range sizes (11–13 and 13–15 mm).
• Traders: Watch for any sudden weather anomalies in western Georgia or northern Türkiye, as these would be the main catalysts for a short‑term bullish reversal.

📍 3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR)

• Warsaw, FCA (Georgian kernels, all sizes): 11.40–12.00 EUR/kg, bias: flat to −0.10 EUR/kg over the next three days, barring FX shocks or weather surprises in Georgia.
• Istanbul, FOB (Turkish kernels, 11–15 mm): around 10.40–10.90 EUR/kg equivalent, expected broadly stable with a slight downside risk if export demand stays subdued.
• EU delivered main ports (blended origins): indicative 11.50–12.30 EUR/kg for standard natural kernels, with little change expected in the next 72 hours.