Hazelnut Prices Ease as Turkish FOB Levels Drop, Georgian Premium Holds

Hazelnut kernel prices from Turkey moved sharply lower in early April, while Georgian-origin material held a clear premium but also softened slightly. Buyers now see more competitive offers out of Turkey, narrowing the gap to previous multi‑month highs and shifting short‑term bargaining power back toward importers. Demand from confectionery and ingredients users remains steady, with no sign of panic buying after last year’s frost‑related squeeze. However, elevated inflation and currency volatility in Turkey and the broader Black Sea region keep export pricing sensitive to FX and local cost developments. Weather in key coastal hazelnut belts is cool, wet and seasonally benign, reducing immediate crop risk and helping stabilize forward sentiment ahead of critical flowering and nut‑set stages.

Prices & Differentials

Current offers (all converted to EUR for comparison):

Turkish FOB prices have corrected more aggressively following last year’s frost‑driven spike and high domestic inflation, while Georgian kernels remain at a stable premium reflecting quality positioning and smaller exportable surplus. Recent international market commentary confirms that Turkey still accounts for roughly 65–70% of global hazelnut output, so Turkish price moves continue to anchor global benchmarks.​

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Global hazelnut demand from chocolate, spreads and bakery continues to grow steadily, with B2B buying interest on export platforms more than doubling year‑on‑year, signaling robust ingredient demand into 2026.​ At the same time, Turkey’s overall hazelnut balance has improved compared with last season’s severe frost loss, easing concerns about physical shortages and allowing exporters to offer more competitive prices for standard sizes.​

On the import side, Türkiye itself has increased shelled hazelnut imports from regional suppliers such as Azerbaijan, pointing to flexible industrial sourcing and possible re‑export activity.​ This highlights that short‑term demand is strong enough to absorb additional supply even after recent price softness. For Georgia, the hazelnut sector is smaller but strategically important; modern orchards and processing hubs along the Black Sea coast position the country as a premium niche origin, similar to its fast‑developing blueberry export sector.​

Weather & Crop Outlook (TR & GE)

In Turkey’s main Black Sea hazelnut belt (e.g., Giresun/Ordu area), short‑term weather forecasts around April 8–11 point to cool, cloudy and rainy conditions, with daytime temperatures near 9–11°C and no immediate frost threat.​ This pattern is seasonally typical and supports flowering and early nut‑set without adding new weather stress. Recent climate analysis suggests that average temperatures in eastern Marmara and the central Black Sea are trending slightly higher during the hazelnut flowering period, which may gradually reduce frost risk but can also shift phenology.​

In Georgia, April is generally mild with moderate rainfall, especially in western regions such as Samegrelo and Guria that dominate nut and berry production.​ No acute adverse weather signals have emerged in the last few days, so both Turkish and Georgian 2026 crop prospects currently look seasonally normal. Market participants should nonetheless monitor any late cold snaps through April, as last year’s experience showed how quickly prices can react when Turkish bloom is damaged.​

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Global dominance of Turkey: Turkey still supplies about 70% of world hazelnuts, so even modest shifts in its crop outlook or export policy have outsized price impact.​
• Post‑frost normalization: Following last season’s severe frost, current assessments point to a more balanced supply outlook, which aligns with the visible correction in Turkish FOB offers.​
• Structural demand growth: Rising use in confectionery, spreads and plant‑based products, plus strong B2B platform activity, underpins medium‑term demand despite the recent price easing.​
• Regional sourcing shifts: Türkiye’s growing imports from nearby producers signal flexible sourcing and a willingness to pay for quality and logistics advantages.​

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View

Trading recommendations (short term, 1–3 weeks)

• Buy‑side (importers, roasters, confectioners): Use the current dip in Turkish FOB prices to extend coverage modestly for Q2–Q3 2026, especially on 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm natural kernels. Avoid over‑covering far forward until flowering and early crop assessments are clearer.
• Sell‑side (Turkish exporters, shellers): Consider locking in nearby sales to capture demand at still‑elevated levels versus pre‑frost years, but keep some volume unpriced in case of later weather scares that could lift prices again.
• Georgian suppliers: Maintain premium price positioning versus Turkey but be prepared for selective discounts on larger volumes, as buyers are highly price‑sensitive after the recent correction.

3‑day directional price indication (all in EUR)

• Turkey – Istanbul FOB (TR kernels): With stable, seasonally favorable weather and no fresh bullish news, prices for natural kernels and roasted products are likely to trade sideways to slightly softer over the next 3 days, around current levels of roughly 7.2–8.8 EUR/kg.
• Georgia – export via Warsaw FCA (GE kernels): Given smaller liquidity and a quality premium, prices are expected to remain mostly steady in the 11.0–11.8 EUR/kg range in the next 3 days, with only minor negotiation‑driven adjustments.