Hazelnuts: Azerbaijan’s Export Surge Meets Easing but Firm Kernel Prices

Azerbaijan’s hazelnut sector opened 2026 with a sharp upswing: export volumes rose nearly 13% in January–February, while export value roughly doubled, underscoring strong international demand and improved pricing power. Spot kernel prices in Europe and Turkey have eased slightly in March but remain historically elevated, reflecting a still‑tight global supply backdrop. The market is shaped by Azerbaijan’s expanding role as a high‑value exporter, continued supply constraints from previous poor crops in other origins, and resilient demand from confectionery and bakery industries. Buyers see some short‑term relief from the modest price pullback, yet the combination of tight raw material availability and solid downstream demand is keeping the risk of renewed price strength on the table for 2026.

Prices

European and Turkish hazelnut kernel prices softened modestly through March 2026 but remain high in absolute terms after the strong rally driven by the tight 2025 crop.

The slight downtick over March suggests some short‑term easing after the steep price escalation triggered by reduced 2025 crops in key origins. However, current levels still reflect a premium environment consistent with strong underlying demand.

Supply & Demand

Azerbaijan’s export data underline the strength of global demand and the country’s growing role in the hazelnut trade. In January–February 2026, Azerbaijan exported 4,569 tonnes of hazelnuts worth USD 57.66 million, a 12.9% increase in volume year‑on‑year and more than a doubling in export value. Hazelnuts contributed around 1.5% of the nation’s total export earnings in this period, making them a key high‑value agricultural commodity.

The much stronger rise in export value compared with volume signals improved pricing conditions and likely a shift toward higher‑value kernel and processed products. Against a backdrop of earlier supply stress in other producing countries and ongoing, relatively inelastic demand from chocolate, spreads and bakery manufacturers, buyers are competing for limited top‑quality origins, supporting Azerbaijan’s export prices.

Fundamentals & Weather

Global fundamentals remain tight following the constrained 2025 season, particularly in Europe. While spot kernel prices in Turkey and Georgia have eased slightly in March, the modest correction has not fundamentally changed the balance: stocks are limited, and pipeline inventories along the value chain remain lean.

Weather in the main Black Sea hazelnut belt (Türkiye, Georgia, Azerbaijan) in late March 2026 is currently seasonal, without acute frost or storm damage reported in the past few days. Short‑term forecasts point to typical early‑spring variability but no immediate large‑scale threat to orchards. Nonetheless, the critical flowering and nut‑setting period over the coming weeks will need close monitoring, as this window has historically been highly sensitive to cold snaps and hail.

Trading Outlook

• Buyers (industry, roasters, confectioners): Use the current mild price dip in Turkish and Georgian kernels to extend coverage into Q3 2026, especially for standard calibres 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm, while avoiding over‑stocking given already elevated absolute prices.
• Producers & exporters (especially Azerbaijan and Georgia): Leverage the strong start to 2026 and firm export values to lock in forward sales with reputable industrial counterparties, focusing on quality differentiation and reliable logistics to justify premiums.
• Traders: The market bias remains moderately bullish for 2026 as a whole. Consider a strategy of buying dips on any further short‑term weakness, particularly if weather remains benign but stock coverage in consuming regions stays low.

Short-Term Price Indication (Next 3 Days)

• Turkey (Istanbul FOB, kernels 11–13 / 13–15 mm): Sideways to slightly firm; recent easing likely to pause as buyers test demand at current levels.
• EU (Warschau FCA, Georgian kernels 11–15+ mm): Stable; modest bid support expected from processors seeking to top up near‑term coverage.
• Azerbaijan export values (FOB, mixed formats): Firm; strong January–February performance and limited nearby supply suggest no significant short‑term discounting.