Hazelnuts Under Pressure: Turkish Price Collapse Signals Structural Bear Market

Hazelnut prices in Turkey have collapsed back to season-start levels, erasing the speculative spike and exposing a fundamentally oversupplied market. With demand weak, financing costs high and buyers switching origins, the near- and medium-term outlook remains clearly bearish unless policy support creates an artificial floor.

After months of speculative strength, the market is now resetting to more realistic levels. Raw kernels 11–13 mm DAP Central Europe trade around 9.25 EUR/kg, organics near 10.85 EUR/kg and roasted lots up to 13.40 EUR/kg, implying weekly declines of roughly 0.70–1.02 EUR/kg and a drop of more than 60% over six months. Buyers across Europe are covering hand-to-mouth after the holiday period, while leading industry players are actively diversifying into Chile, the US, Georgia and Azerbaijan. This combination of soft demand, aggressive competition and heavy Turkish stocks is driving a transition from a speculative bull market to a structurally oversupplied environment.

📈 Prices & Recent Moves

Turkish hazelnut prices have returned to the season’s opening level of roughly 190 TRY/kg, reflecting a sharp correction from the speculative highs seen earlier. In EUR terms, standard raw kernels 11–13 mm DAP Central Europe are indicated around 9.25 EUR/kg, with organic near 10.85 EUR/kg and roasted kernels up to 13.40 EUR/kg. Week-on-week changes of -1.59% mask the much steeper quarter-to-date decline of about -36.7% and a six‑month slide of roughly -61.7%.

Indicative offers from Georgia into Central Europe remain noticeably higher at 11.25–11.80 EUR/kg FCA Warsaw for natural kernels (11–13 mm to 15+ mm), underscoring how aggressively Turkish origin has discounted into the market. At Turkish FOB Istanbul, natural kernels are last indicated slightly above 10 EUR/kg, while roasted forms such as meal and diced are closer to 8–9 EUR/kg, confirming broad-based price pressure across the value chain.

Product	Origin / Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	WoW Change (EUR/kg)
Raw kernels 11–13 mm	TR, DAP Central Europe	≈ 9.25	-0.70 to -1.02
Organic kernels	TR, DAP Central Europe	≈ 10.85	strongly negative
Roasted kernels (net)	TR, DAP Central Europe	up to 13.40	strongly negative
Natural 11–13 mm	GE, FCA Warsaw	11.25	-0.15 vs. prior
Natural 13–15 mm	GE, FCA Warsaw	11.60	-0.10 vs. prior
Natural 15+ mm	GE, FCA Warsaw	11.80	-0.20 vs. prior

🌍 Supply & Demand Balance

The current downturn is not just a short-term correction but the unwinding of a speculative bubble. At the start of the season, large stock build-ups—especially state-related volumes—pushed prices well above what consumption fundamentals could justify. As real demand failed to materialise, particularly over key European sales windows, the market has been forced to adjust back to levels that clear physical stocks.

Demand is clearly underperforming expectations, with some exporters describing this season’s offtake as close to a worst-case scenario. European holidays have further depressed short-term buying interest, and most industrial users are operating a strict hand-to-mouth strategy instead of forward-covering. At the same time, the market leader among global buyers has sharply reduced Turkish procurement while stepping up purchases in Chile at around 5.70–6.60 USD/kg (roughly 5.20–6.00 EUR/kg), reinforcing a structural shift in sourcing away from Turkey.

📊 Fundamentals & Structural Outlook

Fundamentally, the hazelnut market is heading into a clear oversupply phase. Current projections point to a carry-over from 2025 into 2026 of roughly 150,000–250,000 metric tons, coupled with an expected 2026 Turkish crop above 800,000 metric tons. This combination alone implies substantial excess supply, even before accounting for rising output from Chile, the US, Georgia and Azerbaijan.

Quality issues add another bearish layer: a noticeable share of this season’s Turkish crop is described as significantly weaker, which reduces its pricing power against increasingly competitive origins. Meanwhile, financing conditions are tightening. Export credits in foreign currency cost roughly 8–12% per year, while domestic TRY financing can reach 40–50% annually. Under these conditions, many exporters are liquidating stocks even at losses of around 30% to reduce interest burdens, amplifying downward pressure on prices.

🧠 Market Psychology & Policy Risk (TMO)

Market sentiment is dominated by uncertainty around the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) and its future pricing policy. The central question for all participants is where TMO will set the new minimum purchase price. A bullish scenario would see a floor near 250 TRY/kg (roughly equivalent to about 5.30 USD/kg), which could stabilise farm-gate sentiment and provide a reference for exporters.

However, for demand to revive meaningfully, a more bearish scenario is likely required, with prices falling back toward 150–160 TRY/kg. Until TMO reveals its hand, the market is caught between hope for state support and the reality of heavy stocks and sluggish demand. Importantly, leading global buyers have demonstrated they are no longer structurally dependent on Turkish origin, which reduces the leverage of any domestic policy intervention and marks a lasting change in market structure.

🌦 Weather & Regional Context

In early April, weather conditions in key Black Sea agricultural zones are mixed but do not currently pose a clear, immediate threat to the 2026 hazelnut crop. Broader regional forecasts highlight variable spring patterns across Europe, with alternating chilly and warm spells and some localised precipitation, but no systemic frost event has been reported in the main Turkish hazelnut belt in the last few days. 

Given the scale of expected carry-over and the size of the projected 2026 harvest, only a severe and localised weather shock would materially change the fundamental picture in the short term. For now, weather is a background factor rather than a primary driver, with policy decisions and financing pressures far more important for near-term price direction.

📆 Trading Outlook & Strategy

Short Term (1–4 weeks)

• Prices likely remain under pressure as exporters liquidate stocks to ease financing costs and as European demand stays seasonally muted.
• Further discount offers from Turkish origin are probable, especially for lower-quality lots and larger calibres.
• End‑users can maintain hand-to-mouth coverage but should be prepared to step in selectively if heavy selling creates short-lived price air pockets.

Medium Term (Q2–Q3 2026)

• The key trigger is TMO’s minimum price decision; confirmation of a credible floor could spark a technical rebound from oversold levels.
• If TMO sets a relatively high floor, export competitiveness may suffer, pushing more global buyers toward Chile and other origins.
• Conversely, a lower TMO floor in the 150–160 TRY/kg range would be more demand-friendly but politically harder to implement.

Long Term (Season 2026)

• Structurally bearish outlook dominated by high carry-over, strong 2026 crop prospects and growing competition from non‑Turkish origins.
• Only substantial state intervention (e.g., large-scale stock absorption) or serious production problems could sustainably tighten the balance.
• Industrial buyers should continue diversifying origin portfolios to leverage competition and manage political risk around Turkish policy.

📉 3‑Day Price Indication & Directional View

• Turkish kernels, DAP Central Europe (raw 11–13 mm): around 9.25 EUR/kg, bias mildly lower on continued liquidation.
• Turkish kernels, FOB Istanbul (natural 11–13 mm): around 10.4 EUR/kg, with sellers inclined to negotiate on volume parcels.
• Georgian kernels, FCA Warsaw (11–15+ mm): 11.25–11.80 EUR/kg, expected broadly flat, maintaining a premium over Turkish origin.

Over the next three trading days, the path of least resistance remains sideways to slightly lower for Turkish offers, while alternative origins are likely to hold steady at a premium, reflecting both quality perception and lower immediate financing stress.